tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-83001479576057238462024-03-08T18:41:15.883-05:00The Ultimate Fantasy LeagueChremdacasihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12391543746259494747noreply@blogger.comBlogger24125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8300147957605723846.post-39416317608950292562007-04-27T09:50:00.000-05:002007-04-27T10:00:57.824-05:00NFL Mock Draft - 4/27/07Alright, here is my final version of a Mock Draft. Trades are included with guidelines for what I think the compensation that will be given.<br /><br />1. Oakland Raiders: JaMarcus Russell, QB LSU<br />Oakland desperately needs a signal caller. Russell possesses all the tools to be great. I don’t know how much of a chance he’ll have to show it behind that offensive line though.<br /><br />2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers* from Detroit: Calvin Johnson, WR Georgia Tech<br />(compensation for the pick: Detroit receives the 64th and 68th overall picks)<br />If reports are true that Detroit wants Gaines Adams then they would be fools not to trade out of this pick for whatever they can get. Tampa could sit tight and hope that Johnson falls to them at #4. However, I think they’ll want to be sure they get him at #2 with others team showing interest in trading up for Johnson.<br /><br />3. Cleveland Browns: Joe Thomas, OT Wisconsin<br />Most people think that Cleveland will take either Quinn or Peterson here. I think Romeo Crennel and Phil Savage understand the need to control the line of scrimmage. And Cleveland already has 2 developmental QBs with Frye and Anderson. It makes more sense to get a veteran QB than to draft another young guy.<br /><br />4. Detroit Lions* from Tampa Bay: Gaines Adams, DE Clemson<br />All reports from Detroit are that the Lions want Adams. Generally around this time I would write off any rumors as a smokescreen. However, knowing that Matt Millen is running the show I would not be surprised if this is true.<br /><br />5. Arizona Cardinals: Adrian Peterson, RB Oklahoma<br />The Cardinals have to be hoping for Joe Thomas to make it this far. I do not foresee that happening. So, Arizona can look to trade down to a team that wants a player (Quinn, Peterson) or they can take the highest player on their board (Peterson, Brown, Landry). I see them joining the masses in the NFL and going to the 2 running back system. James is 1 year into a 4 year deal – He and Peterson can split time for 1 year, then Arizona could dump James and his monster contract and hand Peterson the full load in 2008.<br /><br />6. Miami Dolphins* from Washington: Brady Quinn, QB Notre Dame<br />(Compensation for the pick: Washington receives Miami’s 3rd round pick)<br />If there is any wisdom in Daniel Snyder then he will trade down. They need extra picks with so many holes on their team - Washington was 27th in points given up, 31st in total defense, 27th against the run, 23rd against the pass. They had fewer sacks than any other team, fewest interceptions, and only had one more fumble than the Raiders defense to keep them from finishing last in that category too. Miami moves ahead of Minnesota to snag Quinn, who they have been enamored with for a long time.<br /><br />7. Atlanta Falcons* from Minnesota Vikings: LaRon Landry, S LSU<br />(Compensation for the pick: Minnesota receives Miami’s 5th round pick)<br />There isn’t much left on the board for Minnesota. Johnson, Peterson and the 2 QBs might be the only players that really interested them. Landry is clearly the best player on the board, but Minnesota has a greater need at CB. If pressed to make a selection here I think Minnesota would take Landry – but I also think they would gladly take an extra pick to move on spot down. Atlanta gets the player they covet without giving up too much and now they can focus their 2 second round picks on the offensive and defensive line (where there is more depth in round than there is at safety in round 2).<br /><br />8. Minnesota Vikings* from Atlanta: Leon Hall, CB Michigan<br />Hall is the top-rated corner according to most people around the league. Minnesota has a bigger need at WR, but the value just isn’t there. They’ll be able to address that need early in round 2.<br /><br />9. Washington Redskins* from Miami: Amobi Okoye, DT Louisville<br />Washington is bad everywhere on defense. The logical thing to do is to take the best defensive player regardless of position. Okoye is the best left – now we’ll just wait and see if owner Daniel Snyder can be logical.<br /><br />10. Houston Texans: Levi Brown, OT Penn State<br />Houston catches a big break here having the 2nd best offensive lineman fall to them. 3 teams ahead of Houston will take a long look at Brown (Arizona, Atlanta, and Miami). If all 3 of these teams decide to pass, then Houston should waste no time getting their draft card to the podium.<br /><br />11. San Francisco 49ers: Adam Carriker, DE Nebraska<br />I think this pick will come down to 2 players – either Carriker or Patrick Willis. In the end, I say Carriker gets the nod because of the important role he’ll play in the 3-4 defense of Mike Nolan.<br /><br />12. Buffalo Bills: Patrick Willis, LB Mississippi<br />After this off-season Buffalo has some major holes to fill. On the bright side, when their pick comes up there should be no problem finding and excellent player to fill one of those needs. Willis would be a perfect replacement for departed linebacker, London Fletcher.<br /><br />13. St. Louis Rams: Jamaal Anderson, DE Arkansas<br />St. Louis was terrible at stopping the run last year. They’ve got to get better across the board on the defensive line. Knowing that, there are only 2 players that make sense at the #13 pick – Anderson or Alan Branch. Branch has been falling for a month now and we do not know when it will stop.<br /><br />14. Carolina Panthers: Reggie Nelson, S Florida Alan Branch, DT Michigan<br />Carolina might be interested in Branch if they can move Kris Jenkins before or during the draft. If not then I see them grabbing Reggie Nelson to fill a void in their defense.<br /><br />15. Pittsburgh Steelers: Darrelle Revis, CB Pittsburgh<br />I expect new, defensive-minded Head Coach, Mike Tomlin to use early picks getting players on defense that he is comfortable with. Last season the Steelers biggest weakness on defense was their secondary play. And while it remains to be seen whether Pittsburgh will play the 4-3 or 3-4, both schemes call for talented corners. A bonus here is that Revis is a local product (played at the University of Pittsburgh) and fans always like to see familiar names be called on draft day.<br /><br />16. Green Bay Packers: Greg Olsen, TE Miami<br />Green Bay needs a RB for sure – but I do not think Marshawn Lynch is the answer, at least not in round 1. Lynch has character concerns which will drop him in the draft thanks to the hard line taken on conduct issues by new Commissioner Roger Goodell. Olsen is head and shoulders about the rest of the TE class and fills and immediate need for Green Bay.<br /><br />17. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jarvis Moss, DE Florida<br />Jacksonville’s biggest need might be at WR, but they can’t afford to use another high pick on a pass catcher. Moss will improve the pass rush for the Jaguars and Moss will be comfortable playing pro ball near his old college stomping grounds.<br /><br />18. Cincinnati Bengals: Alan Branch, DT Michigan<br />Cincinnati has a big need at defensive tackle and Branch is a top 10 talent that has dropped the last month because of poor workouts and concerns about his effort throughout games. He is a great value here for Cincinnati.<br /><br />19. Tennessee Titans: Ted Ginn Jr., WR Ohio State<br />Marshawn Lynch is available, but character concerns will keep Tennessee away. Cornerback is a possibility but I think Ted Ginn Jr. is too much to pass up. His return prowess is an added bonus – and Tennessee will need someone to fill Adam Jones’ shoes in that regard.<br /><br />20. New York Giants: Paul Posluszny, LB Penn State<br />Joe Staley could be the selection here with New York looking to replace Luke Petigout. But New York is looking for a linebacker and Posluszny is an excellent one from nearby Penn State.<br /><br />21. Denver Broncos: Joe Staley OT, Central Michigan<br />I think the Broncos would love to find a pass-rusher like Jarvis Moss at this spot, but I don’t think he’ll make it to them. Staley has been moving up the draft board steadily the last month. Denver could add him and make him the anchor to their line and Jay Cutler’s best friend for seasons to come.<br /><br />22. Dallas Cowboys: Robert Meacham, WR Tennessee<br />Dallas had a need to get young at WR. Starters Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn are both 33 and have many, many miles on the odometer. Local products in the secondary like Aaron Ross and Michal Griffin from Texas could be intriguing though.<br /><br />23. Kansas City Chiefs: Dwayne Bowe, WR LSU<br />Offensive lineman Willie Road and Will Shields have left in consecutive years now. Joe Staley would be an excellent pick if available – but it’s hard to believe he’ll make it past both the Giants and Broncos. The Chiefs still have a big hole to fill at WR, and Bowe is full of value at the 23rd pick.<br /><br />24. New England Patriots: Chris Houston, CB Arkansas<br />Asante Samuel has yet to negotiate a new deal or sign the franchise tender. I do not expect him to be with New England for more than one more year. That means getting a player to develop behind him is paramount.<br /><br />25. New York Jets: Anthony Spencer, DE/OLB Purdue<br />Pretty straightforward here – Spencer is one of the best available players and he fits a need and role for the Jets.<br /><br />26. Philadelphia: Aaron Ross, S Texas<br />Philadelphia needs to get younger and deeper in their secondary. They may have their choice between 2 stars from the University of Texas (Ross and Michael Griffin). Ross is slated slightly higher and gets the nod here.<br /><br />27. New Orleans Saints: Lawrence Timmons, LB Florida State<br />New Orleans fills a big hole at CB when they signed restricted free agent, Jason David, away from the Colts. Timmons has had an up and down ride in the draft stock market. Another option for the Saints and feel good story would be to draft Dwayne Bowe from LSU if he falls to this point.<br /><br />28. New England Patriots: Jon Beason, LB Miami<br />It is very difficult to predict what the Patriots will do. I think their needs come at linebacker and secondary. With the 28th there are 2 star Hurricanes available (Beason and safety Brandon Meriweather). Meriweather might still carry some concerns after beating and opposing player with his helmet during a brawl last season. And after already addressing their secondary with their first pick, linebacker would seem to make more sense here.<br /><br />29. Baltimore Ravens: Marcus McCauley, CB Fresno State<br />Offensive tackle is a big need source here with RT Tony Pashos gone and left tackle Jonathan Ogden considering retirement. Joe Staley might have been available here 3 weeks ago, but no longer. Baltimore should be able to fill that need later and grabbing a talented corner like McCauley makes more sense in this situation.<br /><br />30. San Diego Chargers: Brandon Meriweather, S Miami<br />Griffin and Meriweather are the top safeties left on the board. Meriweather is more talented but comes with more baggage. I expect talent to trump character on this one.<br /><br />31. Chicago Bears: Ben Grubbs, G Auburn<br />Grubbs is talented enough to be an early first round pick, but the fact that he plays guard drops him down the list. NFL teams just do not value the guard position highly, but make no mistake this young man will be an excellent football player. Chicago should find no trouble finding a spot for him to play for 10-12 years.<br /><br />32. Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Gonzalez, WR Ohio State<br />Bill Polian and Tony Dungy feel like they can find players to fit their needs at other positions later in the draft. However, finding a WR that has the quickness, hands, and route running ability later in the draft is less likely. Gonzalez is a polished WR that can play in the slot for the Colts who use 3 wide receivers regularly. The Colts may look to trade down into the middle of round 2 and get Gonzalez, Steve Smith, or Craig Davis at that point if the option presents itself.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!--
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However, things do not look promising on that front, and if they can’t find an adequate QB before the draft then the Raiders have to take QB with their first pick and Russell seems to be a better fit than Quinn. Although, I still hold the notion that Oakland should contact Jacksonville about Byron Leftwich in order to make it possible to grab Calvin Johnson, the best player in the draft.<br /><br /><strong>2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers</strong>* from Detroit: Calvin Johnson, WR Georgia Tech (compensation for the pick: Tampa’s second round pick acquired from Indy and Tampa’s 3rd round pick, giving Detroit the 64th and 68th overall picks)<br />I firmly believe that the Lions will (and should) move out of this pick. Jon Gruden gushes over Calvin Johnson. While Tampa could possibly wait and see Johnson fall to them, I think they’ll get anxious and make a draft day deal with Detroit after Oakland has turned in their draft card to the commissioner with Russell’s name written down.<br /><br /><strong>3. Cleveland Browns:</strong> Joe Thomas, OT Wisconsin<br />Cleveland has plenty of options at the #3 spot. They could take Brady Quinn, an Ohio native. They could grab Adrian Peterson to be Jamal Lewis’ caddy for a year. Or they could grab the best offensive lineman in the draft, in Joe Thomas. Last year the Browns suffered a rash of injuries on the offensive lineman and they would do well to grab Thomas as an anchor for the group. Quality RBs are easier to find (although some think Peterson may be a great one) and picking a QB this early is a risky business – too risky for an already on thin ice coach, Romeo Crennel.<br /><br /><strong>4. Detroit Lions</strong>* from Tampa Bay: Brady Quinn, QB Notre Dame<br />I love the move down by Detroit to #4. They can acquire extra picks (even if not enough to make the trade ‘even’ based on the NFL draft chart). Tampa Bay would receive 2,600 points in value while Detroit would receive 2,320 value points. However, Detroit is still going to end up with either Quinn, J. Thomas, or G. Adams – all of which they are interested. And not only do they get extra picks, but they also will not have to give their top pick as large of a contract since NFL rookie contracts are somewhat slotted based on where they are drafted.<br /><br /><strong>5. Arizona Cardinals:</strong> Gaines Adams, DE Clemson<br />Arizona must be hoping that Detroit covets Quinn or Adams and that Cleveland makes Peterson their pick, so that Arizona could have a shot at OT Joe Thomas. However, I do not see that happening and expect Arizona to end up with the top pass rusher out of Clemson. Certainly not a bad pick for Arizona, but oh what things could be if they could get their offensive line help. Of course they could choose to take OT Levi Brown, but I think the value here is with Adams. Maybe Arizona will look to trade down and then pick Levi Brown.<br /><br /><strong>6. Buffalo Bills</strong>* from Washington: Adrian Peterson, RB Oklahoma<br />(Compensation for the pick: Washington receives Buffalo’s 3rd and 4th round picks)<br />Washington, being without picks in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round, should look to trade down early in the draft. Although knowing Daniel Snyder maybe we’ll see them give up all their picks in the 2008 draft to move up to draft Calvin Johnson. I don’t think there is anyone at #6 that Washington must have, so swapping with Buffalo would be prudent. Buffalo needs a workhorse back after parting with Willis McGahee and they have an extra 3rd pick this year from Baltimore that allows them the freedom to move up in the draft.<br /><br /><strong>7. Minnesota Vikings:</strong> LaRon Landry, S LSU<br />Minnesota runs the ball well is effective in stopping the run well but have trouble generating a pass rush. They could be interested in one of the top 2 defensive ends but after spending first round picks the last 2 of the last 3 years on DEs (Kenechi Udeze and Erasmus James) I think that they will be hesitant to do so again. They have a need for a WR, but Calvin Johnson is the only WR that warrants getting drafted in this spot. Landry is an impact player that would immediately upgrade their secondary. He might not be able to crack the starting lineup in year one with Minnesota, but his versatility would allow for him to play in the nickel defense and the Vikings could groom him to start in 2008.<br /><br /><strong>8. Atlanta Falcons:</strong> Jamaal Anderson, DE Arkansas<br />The Matt Schaub deals moves Atlanta into the #8 spot. My feeling is that Rich McKay is hoping to see Landry be available at this spot. But I don’t see him slipping past Washington (if they keep their pick) and Minnesota. If Landry is gone, then I think the Falcons will be picking from one of 2 players: either grab Levi Brown and continue the steps to make their O-line bigger or take the 2nd best DE in the group to replace the departed Patrick Kerney. My money is on them taking Anderson in hopes that he can perform at a high level like the original ‘dirty bird’ running back Jamal Anderson.<br /><br /><strong>9. Miami Dolphins:</strong> Levi Brown, OT Texas<br />The Dolphins have a lot invested in Daunte Culpepper. If Culpepper is going to lead this team then they need some big men in front of him to pass protect. Culpepper was sacked 21 times in just 4 games in 2006. Although, Keith Traylor will be 38 this season, so DTs Alan Branch or Amobi Okoye could be appealing to Miami. Also, after losing Wes Welker to New England the Dolphins might be interested in grabbing a player like Ted Ginn that could fill Welker’s role as a WR / return man.<br /><br /><strong>10. Houston Texans:</strong> Leon Hall, CB Michigan<br />Houston’s trade with Atlanta may have ruined their chances of getting OT Levi Brown. However, Houston’s line saw improvement in pass protection last year. David Carr was sacked more than any other QB in 2004 and 2005. In 2006, 7 Quarterbacks were sacked more than Carr. One of Houston’s other weaknesses was their inability to create turnovers. The Texans had the 3rd fewest interceptions in 2006. Hall is the cornerback that is most ready to contribute and he could battle for a starting gig opposite of Dunta Robinson.<br /><br /><strong>11. San Francisco 49ers:</strong> Adam Carriker, DE Nebraska<br />Reports are that the 49ers fell in love with Carriker at the Senior Bowl. Carriker is the hybrid type player that would fit ideally in the 3-4 defensive scheme that Mike Nolan is forming in San Francisco.<br /><br /><strong>12. Washington Redskins</strong>* from Buffalo: Amobi Okoye, DT Louisville<br />Washington has a leaky defense, and it’s leaky everywhere. I expect them to draft the best defensive players regardless of position when they turn in their card to Roger Goodell. In 2006 Washington was 27th in points given up, 31st in total defense, 27th against the run, 23rd against the pass. They had fewer sacks than any other team, fewest interceptions, and only had one more fumble than the Raiders defense to keep them from finishing last in that category too. Okoye is one the fast risers in the draft and evaluators love that he is only 19 years old. Daniel Snyder is probably giddy over the thought of being able to give this youngster 3 monster contacts over the length of his career.<br /><br /><strong>13. St. Louis Rams:</strong> Patrick Willis, LB Mississippi<br />The only team worse in the NFL at stopping the run in 2006 than the Indianapolis Colts was the St. Louis Rams. St. Louis might be interested in DT Alan Branch, but after 2003 first round pick Jimmy Kennedy proved to be a bust, I think Willis is the safer pick here. Willis should be ready to fit into the starting lineup immediately and provide run support for the porous defense.<br /><br /><strong>14. Carolina Panthers:</strong> Alan Branch, DT Michigan<br />Rumors are starting stir that Kris Jenkins may be on his way out of Carolina. If that is the case then getting Branch to fill in immediately makes sense. Branch was once a sure-fire first round pick, but poor workouts at the combine and Michigan’s pro day has seen his value drop.<br /><br /><strong>15. Pittsburgh Steelers:</strong> Darrelle Revis, CB Pittsburgh<br />I expect new, defensive-minded Head Coach, Mike Tomlin to use early picks getting players on defense that he is comfortable with. Last season the Steelers biggest weakness on defense was their secondary play. And while it remains to be seen whether Pittsburgh will play the 4-3 or 3-4, both schemes call for talented corners. A bonus here is that Revis is a local product (played at the University of Pittsburgh) and fans always like to see familiar names be called on draft day.<br /><br /><strong>16. Green Bay Packers:</strong> Greg Olsen, TE Miami<br />Many mock drafts project Cal running back Marshawn Lynch in this spot, and I was in that camp until recently. Lynch’s stock is slipping and NFL teams are recognizing that they are able to find capable players later in the draft and in free agency. And my good friend, The Commish, likes to remind me that it is typical for RBs to slide on draft day. I think the Packers will reach out and grab another weapon to appease their franchise QB who should be tutoring a young QB instead of pretending like he is one.<br /><br /><strong>17. Jacksonville Jaguars:</strong> Reggie Nelson, S Florida<br />The Jaguars aren’t the only team interested in the talented safety from the National Champions, so don’t be surprised if some team makes a move to get ahead of Jacksonville in round 1. If Nelson is still available at #17 I fully expect the Jaguars to grab him and never look back. Nelson can replace Deon Grant, and again fans will be happy to see a familiar face on their NFL franchise (Nelson was making plays regularly on Saturdays last fall about 70 miles away from Jacksonville).<br /><br /><strong>18. Cincinnati Bengals:</strong> Lawrence Timmons, LB Florida State<br />The Bengals have spent recent first day draft picks on linebackers out of the University of Georgia. Odell Thurman has been great when on the field, which is less each year because of off-the-field incidences. (Thurman was suspended 4 games last year for violating the league’s substance abuse policy). David Pollack missed the entire 2006 season with a broken neck and may never see the playing field again. Timmons performed well at the combine and his pro day and does not come into the league with character problems or baggage – and that is something that Cincinnati must make a priority.<br /><br /><strong>19. Tennessee Titans:</strong> Robert Meacham, WR Tennessee<br />Tennessee has filled on hole on their team by adding CB Nick Harper in free agency, but now that Adam Jones has been suspended for a year, they could be looking for more help at that position. Tennessee has lost top WR Drew Bennett to the Rams and adding local product Robert Meacham is a possibility. The Titans could also be looking for a RB to pair with LenDale White, so don’t be surprised to see them pull the trigger on Marshawn Lynch if Green Bay passes. However, with the character concerns surrounding Lynch and their experience with Jones, I think they’ll pass on any who is questionable with their first round pick.<br /><br /><strong>20. New York Giants:</strong> Paul Posluszny, LB Penn State<br />New York was unable to add LB Al Wilson from Denver because of a failed physical, so they would very well look to grab the best linebacker in the NCAA last year. Posluszny won’t blow you out of the water with his workout numbers, but he is a young man that is able to make plays on the football field.<br /><br /><strong>21. Denver Broncos:</strong> Jarvis Moss, DE Florida<br />The Broncos have had a busy off-season filling up holes as quickly as they were able to. One hole that remains is a pass rushing DE, after the Broncos failed to lure Patrick Kerney to Denver. Moss and Anthony Spencer are the best pass rushers left on the board if they choose to go that route. They could also take a look at fast rising OT Joe Staley, but with Denver still using the zone blocking scheme I don’t expect them to use an early pick on an offensive lineman.<br /><br /><strong>22. Dallas Cowboys:</strong> Ted Ginn Jr., WR Ohio State<br />The defensive secondary was Dallas’ biggest weaknesses in 2006. The Dallas defense ranked 24th among all teams against the pass. They were able to sign safety, Ken Hamlin, from Seattle. That makes me think that they will use this pick to either grab a young corner like Aaron Ross or take a WR. At the start of the 2007 season both starting wide receivers for Dallas (Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn) will be 33 years old. Getting a player like Ginn who can develop behind two of the best in the league is prudent.<br /><br /><strong>23. Kansas City Chiefs:</strong> Dwayne Bowe, WR LSU<br />Kansas City’s offensive line is beginning to show their age, which is why I expect them to take a long look at Joe Staley if he is still around. However, I do not think that they will be able to overlook their glaring need at WR, especially with quality players such as Bowe, Dwayne Jarrett, and co. available.<br /><br /><strong>24. New England Patriots:</strong> Chris Houston, CB Arkansas<br />New England has had a very busy off-season. They have improved at WR (Stallworth and Welker) and LB (A. Thomas). And they are rumored to be interested in adding inside linebacker Ed Hartwell. The biggest weakness for the Patriots is in the secondary. Franchised CB Asante Samuel has not reached and accord on a long-term deal and could even demand a trade before the season begins or threaten with a holdout. The longer this situation continues to linger the greater the chance the Samuel will not be around after the 2007. Houston impressed scouts with his sub 4.4, 40 time and should see his name called before round 1 is complete.<br /><br /><strong>25. New York Jets:</strong> Anthony Spencer, DE/OLB Purdue<br />New York has still yet to replace their top pass rusher of 2 years ago when they traded John Abraham to Atlanta. Spencer is a quality defender that fits into the Jets 3-4 scheme and can improve the teams pass rush.<br /><br /><strong>26. Philadelphia Eagles:</strong> Michael Griffin, S Texas<br />Philadelphia is one of the top organizations in the NFL; they make smart, shrewd decisions regarding personnel. Therefore, they are in excellent shape heading into 2007 and can do a number of things with their initial pick. Safety is a position where youth could be pursued for Philly, so I’ll saddle them with Griffin from Texas.<br /><br /><strong>27. New Orleans Saints:</strong> Aaron Ross, CB Texas<br />Ross comes off the board right after his fellow secondary mate from Texas. New Orleans was only able to generate 11 interceptions last year and Fred Thomas has clearly lost a step. Thomas is 33 and fellow starter Mike McKenzie is 31. The Saints do not have much talent behind these 2 starters and need to begin developing some. Ross is the best cornerback available in the draft and makes complete sense for New Orleans in this spot.<br /><br /><strong>28. New England Patriots:</strong> Brandon Meriweather, S Miami<br />To be honest I have no idea what New England will do in the draft. I tried to get some insight from The Commish (a noted Pats fan), but he did not have much of a clue either. What I do know is that their secondary is thin and was probably their biggest weakness in 2007. Thus, I have them selecting 2 secondary players with their first round picks. However, Scott Pioli could very well draft a player that I have never heard of that will be starting in the Pro Bowl in 2009.<br /><br /><strong>29. Baltimore Ravens:</strong> Joe Staley OT, Central Michigan<br />Starting Right Tackle Tony Pashos has bolted for Jacksonville. Staley could move into the lineup and replace him and eventually be ready to move to the left side to replace Jonathan Ogden (entering his 12th season), who may retire before the 2007 season begins. Staley is one of the players that has been rising in recent weeks thanks to good workouts. So, he could see his name go off the board earlier than this since quality and quantity are both good things to have on your offensive line. However, if he makes is to pick 29 then expect Baltimore to place their hat on his head.<br /><br /><strong>30. San Diego Chargers:</strong> Dwayne Jarrett, WR USC<br />One month ago I would have been shocked to see Jarrett as the 5th WR drafted, but that is what a slow 40 time will do to you. (Jarrett ran his 40 time in the 4.6 range). Nonetheless, Jarrett was able to get open and make plays against Division I opponents on a regular basis at USC. San Diego is looking for someone to insert opposite of Vincent Jackson now that Keenan McCardell is on his way out. I think San Diego will make the pick to keep Jarrett on the West Coast for a few more years.<br /><br /><strong>31. Chicago Bears:</strong> Tony Ugoh, OT Arkansas<br />This has not been a great off-season for the NFC champs. Thomas Jones was sent packing to New York for little compensation. Franchised linebacker Lance Briggs is threatening a holdout and is seeking a trade. But on the bright side Bears fans – you still play in the NFC North, which means next year you’ll get to play Detroit, Minnesota, and Green Bay twice each. On to the draft…Chicago could use another body on the offensive line and you can take your pick who you think the next best is after Staley is gone. Ugoh, Justin Blalock, Ben Grubbs.<br /><br /><strong>32. Indianapolis Colts:</strong> Steve Smith, WR USC<br />I never thought that Steve Smith would be drafted this close to teammate Dwayne Jarrett, but with Jarrett’s slow 40 time and Smith’s quick one (4.4 seconds) you get one falling star and another rising one. Since Tony Dungy has been the coach in Indy they have yet to use a first round pick on a linebacker. In the Tampa 2 defense Dungy can find “system” linebackers that you do not need to spend a high pick on. Losing CB Nick Harper hurts as well, but Indy has been investing first day picks on defensive backs for several years now. I expect this pick to come down to either WR or DT. Justin Harrell or Tank Tyler might prove to be appealing as bandages to help heal their poor run defense. However, my thought is that they’ll grab a WR. They have lost #3 WR Brandon Stokely and #4 WR Aaron Morehead looks like he might be on his way to Minnesota. That means Indy will be looking for a polished WR that can play in the slot in 3 wide receiver sets. Steve Smith is that polished WR that could contribute immediately to another championship run.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!--
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Oakland Raiders:</strong> Brady Quinn, QB <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">Notre</span> Dame<br /><br />Plenty of people have Oakland taking Russell, although more recently, more are guessing Cal. Johnson. I think going <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">WR</span> would be a mistake. It is rare that a team wins the Super Bowl without a premier QB. (The only semi-recent team that comes to mind is the Baltimore Ravens with T. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">Dilfer</span>) Teams only ever pick in the top 3 of the draft ever so often, and if there are <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">QBs</span> considered to be potential great <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">QBs</span>, you need to take a chance on these guys (even if there are notorious <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">flameouts</span> to look at in the past i.e. R. Leaf, J. Harrington and D. Carr) You don't ever think of a <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">WR</span> carrying a team to a championship, that's what the right QB will do. So, if Al Davis wants to win it all he needs to go QB (and I personally prefer Quinn to Russell), and if he wants to sell tickets, he should go ahead with Cal. Johnson.<br /><br /><strong>2. Detroit Lions:</strong> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">JaMarcus</span> Russell, QB <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">LSU</span><br /><br />Using the reasoning above, the Lions must take a QB. J. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">Kitna</span> is just good enough to possibly get you too the playoffs, but he is not transcendent enough of a talent to carry this team to the ultimate prize. Time to take a chance on another QB, and hope for the best.<br /><br /><strong>3. Cleveland Browns:</strong> Joe Thomas OT Wisconsin<br /><br />A. Peterson is a popular pick here, but going RB fails to realize what is going on in the NFL currently. That is, that just about anyone can run the ball behind a good line (i.e. what the Denver Broncos prove to us) and even great talents cannot run the ball behind a bad line (i.e. Edge James going to Arizona). So, rather than waste the money and pick on a RB who you can probably find the basic equivalent of in Free Agency or in a later round of the draft, first shore up that line and make it possible for a RB to go somewhere with the ball. Gotta create the holes before anyone can run through them.<br /><br /><strong>4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers:</strong> Calvin Johnson <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">WR</span> Georgia Tech<br /><br />With no premier players at more important positions left, time to grab the best player in the draft in Calvin Johnson. He can't win games on his own, but he may be able to turn a mediocre QB into a good to great one (like Randy Moss did for <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">Daunte</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13">Culpepper</span>), and with the way that Tampa Bay is stocking <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14">QBs</span>, you'd hope there's at least one mediocre QB in the bunch.<br /><br /><strong>5. Arizona Cardinals:</strong> Levi Brown OT Penn State<br /><br />Offensive line is a huge area of need for this team, and if they ever want to make any of those dollars that they are sending to Edge James worth it, they need to open up some holes for the guy. Brown did a great job run blocking at Penn State and should go a long way in helping out the Cardinals in that area.<br /><br /><strong>6. Washington Redskins:</strong> Gaines Adams, DE Clemson<br /><br />The way to build up a championship team (other than getting the right QB) is to dominate in the trenches. The Redskins already have a good offensive line, time to work on putting together a solid defensive front. Adams will be a huge step in the right direction.<br /><br /><strong>7. Minnesota Vikings:</strong> Leon Hall, CB Michigan<br /><br />Minnesota was great against the run last year, but perhaps that was because teams enjoyed passing against them so much. In fact that's exactly how New England game planned against them in week, where they only rushed 13 times the entire game with almost half of those coming in the 4<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_15">th</span> quarter after the game was well in hand. Hopefully Leon Hall can slow teams down enough through the air, so that teams have to consider trying to run against that tough run defense.<br /><br /><strong>8. Atlanta Falcons:</strong> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_16">LaRon</span> Landry, S <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_17">LSU</span><br /><br />Hanson's an Atlanta resident now, so I'll count on him for this one.<br />From <a href="http://theultimatefantasyleague.blogspot.com/2007/03/nfl-mock-draft-3212007.html">Hanson's mock draft</a>, "The Falcons biggest weakness last year might have been safety play. Chris <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_18">Crocker</span> seemingly got beat on every double move and Landry would immediately contribute to Atlanta with his speed and versatility."<br /><br /><strong>9. Miami Dolphins:</strong> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_19">Amobi</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_20">Okoye</span>, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_21">DT</span> Louisville<strong> </strong><br /><br />Keith <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_22">Traylor</span> (and the rest of the Dolphins defense for that matter) is aging at an alarming pace. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_23">Okoye</span> brings in talent and youth (19 years young) to a defense in <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_24">desperate</span> need of both.<br /><br /><strong>10. Houston Texans:</strong> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_25">Marshawn</span> Lynch, RB <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_26">LSU</span><br /><br />Help is <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_27">desperately</span> needed on the offensive line, but neither Thomas or Brown made it this far. So, the next best thing is a RB who can catch some balls out in the flat and do something with them. A. Peterson is not the right fit here, since he is not a very good receiver out of the backfield and Lynch is the better blocker as well. Lynch's receiving and blocking abilities will help take some pressure off of <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_28">Schaub</span>, plus with <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_29">Ahman</span> Green already on board, and destined to get hurt in the first 2 weeks of the season you don't need Peterson to come in and follow up Green's injury by getting hurt himself before week 8.<br /><br />I'm sure there will be some arguments with some of these selections, and I will be happy to hear them....let me know why you think I'm off my rocker, and just remember, I'm not trying to guess what teams will do, just saying what I think they should do.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!--
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To see the no comments version of both drafts, and a list of "My picks" click <a href="http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p1XAYQkTDp-wXuc-i26PDUQ">here.</a><br /><strong></strong><br /><strong>1. </strong><a href="http://theultimatefantasyleague.googlepages.com/matt"><strong>Matt</strong>:</a> A. Peterson RB Oklahoma<br /><br />The top 3 of this draft are fairly set in stone (A. Peterson, M. Lynch and Cal. Johnson). The only question is what order do those 3 guys go in. I was tempted to have Matt take Cal. Johnson, because he already has some youth at RB with C. Benson and F. Gore, however, his depth at this position is shaky. Even if he hangs onto E. James, he is expensive, and will almost definitely not be around after this year. Taking Peterson, might free him up to drop James and have more cap room for the Free Agency auction. Plus, despite the fact that Matt is weak and old at the starting <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">WR</span> spot, he does have some youth there with at least some prospects of getting better, in Ma. Clayton, M. Jenkins, H. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">Baskett</span>, Si. Moss, C. Jackson. Admittedly outside of Clayton, the outlook for these prospects does not compare at all to Cal. Johnson, however, the sheer volume of young guys gives him a decent chance of having a couple of them work out. (My Pick: M. Lynch I think that Lynch will end up in a situation where he is the undisputed starter and probably on a better team with a better offensive line. Plus, Lynch is a more complete back so, even if the team is behind, he will be involved in the passing game, which has helped mediocre backs like L. Jordan and D. Davis to have good seasons in the past.)<br /><br /><strong>2. </strong><a style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold" href="http://theultimatefantasyleague.googlepages.com/peter">Peter:</a> M. Lynch RB California<br /><br />This seems like a potential trade situation here. Peter's big needs QB and TE are horrible value at this point in the draft, and while Lynch and Cal. Johnson would be nice additions, they would just add to already stacked positions for Peter. W. Parker and T. Henry make a great 1, 2 punch at RB, with T. Jones a solid backup. Peter's <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">WR</span> depth is probably top 3 in the league, and outside of D. Mason, there is no one glaringly old in the bunch. If Peter wants to compete this year, look for him to trade down and try to pick up G. Olsen later in the draft. If he is looking to build to the future, having a guy like M. Lynch around as a cheaper option than T. Henry (after he breaks out this year), will help immensely in that endeavor. This is a can't lose situation for Peter. (My pick: A. Peterson, being the best RB left after M. Lynch goes off the board. Peterson will be splitting carries with J. Lewis for one year, plus I don't like <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">Crennel's</span> offense much in Cleveland. This team will be behind and passing to catch up, so at least in year 1 don't expect much from Peterson, and by year 2 they may be breaking in a new coach in Cleveland, which could lead to them regressing for another year or 2. Bad situation if Peterson ends up in Cleveland, which is a common projection right now.)<br /><br /><strong>3. </strong><a style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: groove" href="http://theultimatefantasyleague.googlepages.com/fauble"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">Fauble</span>:</a> Cal. Johnson <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">WR</span> Georgia Tech<br /><br />Like Peter I'm already stacked at the RB and <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">WR</span> positions, so any pick made here probably won't have an immediate impact. As such, I won't reach for anyone beyond these top 3 guys, and picking 3rd, look for me to get the leftover. In this scenario that is Cal. Johnson. Not a bad guy to get "stuck" with. The only way I see myself going after someone other than these 3 is if something <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">flukey</span> happens like the Colts drafting J. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">Addai</span> last year. Although, I'm having a hard time imagining what the equivalent might be this year. An added bonus of getting Cal. Johnson in particular is knowing just how coveted he is around the league, and he might make a great trading chip come trade deadline time.<br /><br /><strong>4. </strong><a style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold" href="http://theultimatefantasyleague.googlepages.com/bones">Bones</a>: M. Bush RB Louisville<br /><br />I strongly considered having Bones go a different direction here, but his RB situation is so old and tenuous with W. Dunn and F. Taylor as his current starters, and no backups worth mentioning, that to go any direction other than RB would almost seem non-<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">sensical</span>. Depending on how far Bush drops due to his most recent surgery, Bones could go for the highest taken 2<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">nd</span> round RB (if there even is one) if its not Bush. K. Irons and A. Pittman seem like the most likely possibilities at this point. In Bones' situation I would take Bush even if he drops to the late 3rd round. The kid was going to be a 1st round pick, if he had come out after his Junior season, and I have no reason to believe that he won't come back full strength. This could be the kind of investment that could have been made on W. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">McGahee</span> when he came out, although all indications are that Bush will be ready to play his rookie year. The biggest concern will be the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13">RBs</span> on the depth chart in front of Bush's new team. If they are on the younger side, this situation should be shied away from. However, if he were to end up on a team like the <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14">NYJ</span> that would give him a great opportunity to take over soon, as T. Jones would be turning 30 as Bush starts his 2<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_15">nd</span> season.<br /><br /><strong>5. </strong><a style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold" href="http://theultimatefantasyleague.googlepages.com/veen"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_16">Veen</span>:</a> T. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_17">Ginn</span> Jr. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_18">WR</span> Ohio State<br /><br />With only 1 <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_19">WR</span> currently signed for the upcoming year, any position but <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_20">WR</span> would be a huge surprise here, especially since the value is there at this point in the draft. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_21">Veen</span> will probably get his choice of the non-Cal. Johnson <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_22">WRs</span>.<br /><br /><strong>6. </strong><a href="http://theultimatefantasyleague.googlepages.com/seth"><strong>Seth:</strong></a> R. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_23">Meachem</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_24">WR</span> Tennessee<br /><br />At this point in the draft, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_25">QBs</span> (Quinn and Russell) and TE (G. Olsen) will start to be considered. However, Seth is already 3 deep at TE, and even though he will probably have to replace Palmer due to his huge contract sometime soon, he already has P. Rivers and Campbell "developing" behind him, so no need to grab Quinn or Russell at this point. Seth needs to either go <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_26">WR</span> or RB with this pick, as his depth at both positions is okay this year, but going forward could be shaky as he needs to deal with his bloated cap position. Not sure if the value is quite there yet to reach for the 2<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_27">nd</span> round <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_28">RBs</span>, although it is definitely a strong consideration at this point. (Previous pick: D. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_29">Bowe</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_30">Bowe's</span> position seems to be slipping in the mock drafts, while <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_31">Meachem's</span> is moving up. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_32">Meachem</span> will probably be the 3rd <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_33">WR</span> off the board.)<br /><br /><strong>7. </strong><a style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold" href="http://theultimatefantasyleague.googlepages.com/josh">Hanson</a>: A. Pittman RB Ohio State<br /><br />Hanson seems to be in a position to take the player with the most value regardless of position. He is a little weak depth wise at RB and TE, though and Pittman as possibly the 3rd RB taken in the draft could be the most valuable player available. With 3 <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_34">WRs</span> already taken (possibly representing all of the 1st round <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_35">WRs</span>), and the young talent Hanson already has at that position (S. Holmes and V. Jackson) I would not expect him to go <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_36">WR</span> (at this point), and at QB he is stacked with a good starter and two above average young cheap backups already, so that is unlikely as well. (Previous pick: G. Olsen I think G. Olsen makes more sense for his team, but since Hanson has a pick at #9 as well, and virtually no possibility of Olsen being taken by <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_37">Veen</span> (who has A. Gates), there is no reason to take Olsen in the 7 spot. Instead he will probably take a player who might not slip past <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_38">Veen</span> at #8.)<br /><br /><strong>8. </strong><a style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold" href="http://theultimatefantasyleague.googlepages.com/veen"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_39">Veen</span></a>: D. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_40">Bowe</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_41">WR</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_42">LSU</span><br /><br />With 2 <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_43">WRs</span> in the first round, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_44">Veen</span> can now start a complete fantasy squad including 3 <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_45">WRs</span>. A. Pittman would have been a solid selection, with <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_46">Veen</span> being weak at both RB and <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_47">WR</span>, but with Pittman going one pick in advance, taking another <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_48">WR</span> is not a bad option for this team. (Previous Pick: D. Jarrett, let the comparisons to Mike Williams begin, as his slow 40 time could knock him all the way to the 2<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_49">nd</span> round of the NFL draft.)<br /><br /><strong>9. </strong><a style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold" href="http://theultimatefantasyleague.googlepages.com/josh">Hanson:</a> A. Gonzalez <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_50">WR</span> Ohio State<br /><br />This pick happens if A. Gonzalez goes to the Colts as there is some buzz about that possibility. Hanson is a huge Colts fan and could not pass up the opportunity to grab the next great Indy <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_51">WR</span>. (Previous Pick: R. <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_52">Meachem</span> No longer an option as <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_53">Meachem's</span> stock is rising) (My Pick: G. Olsen T. Gonzalez can definitely be relied upon next year, but he is also getting older and will need to be replaced. B. Troupe has had multiple chances to step up, and has failed to do so. Sooner or later Josh will need to find his TE of the future. I think G. Olsen fills that need. Plus, at <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_54">WR</span> while his stars are older, he already has a collection of 5 young guys with medium to good potential for being quality fantasy starters in the future, so less of a need there. I think that Hanson still thinks that someday B. Troupe might live up to his potential. Despite me being quite down on Troupe as ever being worthy of being a fantasy starter, I think Hanson views Troupe as the TE of the future for his team, and as such has no need for G. Olsen.<br /><br /><strong>10. </strong><a style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold" href="http://theultimatefantasyleague.googlepages.com/chu"><span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_55">Chu</span>:</a> D. Jarrett <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_56">WR</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_57">USC</span><br /><br />With 2 slow, disappointing former <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_58">USC</span> stars already on board (Mike Williams and <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_59">LenDale</span> White), <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_60">Chu</span> is going to have to prove to me that he can have the discipline to stay away from these guys, before I can keep from projecting him to go after the guys. (My pick: B. Quinn <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_61">Chu</span> may be okay at QB next year with 3 probably starters, but none of the group seems to even have the potential to become a top guy. Time to stock the shelves with a top prospect. I think Quinn is a far better NFL prospect than Russell, and if Russell ends up on the Raiders, the situation will be far and away a better situation, regardless of where Quinn ends up. Quinn won't contribute right away, but would offer hope at the QB position in the future for <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_62">Chu</span>.)<div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!--
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I do agree that a certain ability to perform under pressure is a good quality to have for a team to be called "the best", but what we fail to realize is that none of the sports leagues currently have a playoff system that is setup to determine the "best team" of the year. They are actually set up to maximize revenue to the leagues, irregardless of any supposed quest to answer the question of who the best team was in any given year. <br /><br />Let me list some of the problems in current systems, and propose what would have to happen to have a playoff system, more worthy of being considered to answer the question, what team was "the best."<br /><br />1. One and done single elimination. This affects football first and foremost both in the NFL and even more so on the college level (where the whole season is a playoff, and after 1 loss, you are generally disqualified from being declared champ). It also comes into play in March Madness. The problem with one game deciding who moves on to the next round is the huge factor that luck plays in all sporting events. Luck could be anything from how the refs are performing that night, injuries, the way the ball bounces, weather (in the case of football) and many many other factors. On any given day in the NFL a horrible team can beat a really good team, and as Pittsburgh showed, a #6 seed could run the table beating all the better teams 4 games in a row to be the Super Bowl champ. Anyone outside of Pittsburgh, could look at that season and easily pick 2 or 3 other teams that would have been better picks for team of the year.<br /><br />2. Similar to the single elimination problem is the problem of a short 5 game series. Basketball finally got rid of this, thankfully, but baseball still plays a short series in the divisional round, which not uncommonly leads to the #1 seed being upset.<br /><br />3. Finally, too many teams in the postseason. There is only one league who has this right, and that is baseball. What is the point of playing the regular season if every average team (barely over .500 and in some cases under .500) gets into the playoffs. Some might say for home court advantage, but the only sport where this seems to be a huge factor is football. Average teams can get hot for stretches, and the system rewards medicore teams who get hot late. So....my solution....<br /><br />First, in a 30-32 team league, 8 teams get into the playoffs. When you allow half the league in you completely devalue the regular season, and frankly take away some excitement that might be there with a smaller playoff system, when good (but not great) teams might miss out on the playoffs under a situation where 8 teams instead of 16 got in. All of the games down the stretch would be must see. Right now, no one really cares if the Pacers or the Knicks can eke past Orlando or New Jersey to make the playoffs, because everyone knows they are losing to Cleveland and Detroit in the first round anyway. If this is a foregone conclusion, why make everyone go through the exercise. Even worse, what if miraculously the Knicks caught fire and actually won their first round series. Are we really ready then to consider them a top 8 team in the league?<br /><br />Second, all series must be at least best of 7. A 7 games series leaves enough time for the teams to gear up and play their best ball against each other. I would even advocate going up to 9 games (this could make up for some of the lost revenue by dropping a round of the playoffs). <br /><br />Finally, to really have the regular season mean something, I would advocate that home court advantage means that the higher seed is home for the <strong>entire </strong>series, not just one more game than the lower seed. Now, you have an appropriately weighted system, giving advantages to teams that performed all year long, and they will be given enough chances to prove they are the best in a long series. If with all of that in place, the lower seed wins, that is where the performing under pressure component would come into player for the lower seed, and at the end of the playoffs, we all would feel a lot more comfortable with the so-called "champion". So am I way off here? Other issues with current systems? Other suggestions on fixing thing?<strong> </strong><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!--
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For example, take a look at how I broke down the <a href="http://theultimatefantasyleague.blogspot.com/2007/03/wr-rankings.html">WR Rankings</a>. Now this wasn't a strict tier system, since I arbitrarily took groups of five, but it does give the general idea. The idea when you are drafting then, is to take players from tiers that will not be around at your next draft pick. So if you are running low on tier 2 WRs, and there are plenty of tier 3 RBs around, then you should strongly consider taking a WR, since the quality of WR will diminish by your next pick, whereas the quality of RB will probably be similar.<br /><br />Now how do you work with this in a draft. Let's take a look at a <a href="http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p1XAYQkTDp-y_fj_dsixxRQ">redraft league draft </a>I was in last year with 10 teams, and let's look specifically at how I (Fauble) worked the draft using a tier system and how it turned out.<br /><br />My tiers going into the draft had a 1st tier at RB of S. Alexander, L. Johnson and LDT (in no particular order, since that is kind of the point of tiers.) My 2nd tier of RBs included (T. Barber, C. Portis and S. Jackson). Then my 3rd tier which was much bigger included guys like (B. Westbrook, R. Johnson, R. Brown, L. Jordan, D. Davis (and quite a few others)). When my pick comes up at #8 I look at my tiers at various positions, and see that if I were to pick RB with my first pick (which many people claim is the only way to draft) I would have to pick from my 3rd tier of RBs, and try to figure out who the best guy from that tier is. However, I know with a pick coming at #13 I could pick up a RB from this tier (if I felt the need to) on the flip side. So then I start looking at my top tiers at other positions. I have P. Manning and A. Gates both in classes by themselves, and at WR I have a top tier of (S. Smith, C. Johnson, T. Owens and T. Holt). To me the clear choice is Manning, because this is the only chance to get a top tier QB (he wouldn't have survived past Josh the Colt Lover), and with my next pick, I will still have top tier options at WR, TE and still some guys from that 3rd tier of RBs.<br /><br />So, sure enough pick 13 rolls around, and I've only lost one of those tier 3 RBs, granted it was my favorite of the group, but the point is, that I felt that those other RBs were similar enough that I did not have to have him. Now at this point I decided to be bold (mainly because I had a plan in place to take care of my RBs in later rounds). I do not recommend this strategy often, and it must be carefully thought out. Anyway, I'm still not that interested in these 3rd tier RBs, who have a way of disappointing (as L. Jordan, R. Brown, C. Williams demonstrated last year), so now I'm choosing between WR and TE. This was a tough choice, because I really wanted Gates, and I didn't know if he would fall to me at #28. However, I decided it was worth the risk, because I still had 2 top tier WRs on my board (T. Owens and T. Holt), and I absolutely knew that they would both be gone by next pick.<br /><br />So, next pick comes around, and not surprisingly all of my tier 3 RBs are gone. Definitely not worth dipping into the quagmire of tier 4 RBs so I fortunately grap A. Gates (I was very happy and lucky he fell this far.)<br /><br />Now my round 4 pick might have been a bit of a reach. However, at this point we're into the 4th tier of RBs which consists of guys drafted all the way from the 32nd pick (T. Jones) to the 72nd pick (C. Martin). If I can pick a guy from this tier anywhere in the next few rounds, no reason to do it now. Same thing with the 2nd tier of WRs who were picked anywhere from the 22nd pick (A. Boldin) to the 54th pick (D. Mason). Plus I already had T.O. to anchor my squad, and pretty much every year since I started playing fantasy football I've been able to pick up a #2 WR (or better) early in the season. With QB and TE taken care of and no desire for the RBs and WRs available, I reach a little bit for Chicago. I was worried that someone might go after the top defense on the board in the long wait I had from the 33rd to 48th pick, and Chicago was the only defense I felt confident would be a top 5 defense going into the following year.<br /><br />Okay 5th round rolls around, time to stop ignoring the most important position in fantasy football, and sure enough my plan works. I'm thrilled to have W. Dunn drop to me in the 5th round. For whatever reason the guy is consistently underrated in our leagues (this is where knowing your league can play a huge part in draft strategy). I know he won't compete with most #1s, but with Manning, T.O., Gates and Chicago dominating whoever I am playing at those positions, the only teams I'm worried about Dunn going against are the ones with LDT, LJ and Alexander.<br /><br />I got a bit lucky in the 6th round. I was hoping Droughns would fall through, but fortunately, I grabbed the last RB that I felt comfortable with in the current tier of RBs (I was worried about injuries with C. Martin and J. Lewis) and grabbed last year's L. Jordan, C. Taylor. Only 1 more pick of interest and that's because it relates to my strategy at RB. I grabbed C. Cooley in the 7th round. I was hoping to wait longer, but TEs were starting to get thin, and Josh with two picks before mine in the 8th hadn't grabbed one yet. My plan to have a decent backup, after going for all the non-RBs early was to grab Cooley who had been RB eligible in Yahoo leagues the year before. Then he could take Gates bye week as well as my RBs. The plan backfired when Cooley was only TE eligible, but oh well. The rest of the draft and season worked out okay. I ended up winning <a href="http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p1XAYQkTDp-xehnbSnUoIZg">the regular season record and points title</a>. (Let's not talk about the playoffs where I lost to a guy in the championship game, who had scored the 3rd least points of anyone in the regular season). <br /><br />So, anyway, there is an example of using a tier system in action. It can result in many different drafts depending on where your picks fall. However, the principle is the same, grab guys in tiers that are thinning out before they are gone, and wait on the tiers that will still be around for your next pick. In a later post, I will discuss how to determine which tier is more valuable across positions.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!--
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Plus, despite the fact that Matt is weak and old at the starting WR spot, he does have some youth there with at least some prospects of getting better, in Ma. Clayton, M. Jenkins, H. Baskett, Si. Moss, C. Jackson. Admittedly outside of Clayton, the outlook for these prospects does not compare at all to Cal. Johnson, however, the sheer volume of young guys gives him a decent chance of having a couple of them work out.<br /><br />2. <a style="font-weight: bold;" href="http://theultimatefantasyleague.googlepages.com/peter">Peter:</a><span style="font-weight: bold;"> M. Lynch RB California</span><br /><br />This seems like a potential trade situation here. Peter's big needs QB and TE are horrible value at this point in the draft, and while Lynch and Cal. Johnson would be nice additions, they would just add to already stacked positions for Peter. W. Parker and T. Henry make a great 1, 2 punch at RB, with T. Jones a solid backup. Peter's WR depth is probably top 3 in the league, and outside of D. Mason, there is no one glaringly old in the bunch. If Peter wants to compete this year, look for him to trade down and try to pick up G. Olsen later in the draft. If he is looking to build to the future, having a guy like M. Lynch around as a cheaper option than T. Henry (after he breaks out this year), will help immensely in that endeavor. This is a can't lose situation for Peter.<br /><br />3. <a style="border-bottom-style: groove; font-weight: bold;" href="http://theultimatefantasyleague.googlepages.com/fauble">Fauble:</a><span style="font-weight: bold;"> Cal. Johnson WR Georgia Tech</span><br /><br />Like Peter I'm already stacked at the RB and WR positions, so any pick made here probably won't have an immediate impact. As such, I won't reach for anyone beyond these top 3 guys, and picking 3rd, look for me to get the leftover. In this scenario that is Cal. Johnson. Not a bad guy to get "stuck" with.<br /><br />4. <a style="font-weight: bold;" href="http://theultimatefantasyleague.googlepages.com/bones">Bones</a><span style="font-weight: bold;">: M. Bush RB Louisville</span><br /><br />This pick is contingent on Bush being drafted somewhere in the 2nd round. If he falls to the 3rd, which is a distinct possibility with the news of a new surgery, I think Bones will go WR here. There is a possibility he may lean that way anyway, but with W. Dunn and F. Taylor as his current starters, he is desperate to pick up a young RB, and Bush will be the only option available.<br /><br />5. <a style="font-weight: bold;" href="http://theultimatefantasyleague.googlepages.com/veen">Veen:</a><span style="font-weight: bold;"> T. Ginn Jr. WR Ohio State</span><br /><br />With only 1 WR currently signed for the upcoming year, any position but WR would be a huge surprise here, especially since the value is there at this point in the draft.<br /><br />6. <span style="font-weight: bold;"><a href="http://theultimatefantasyleague.googlepages.com/seth">Seth:</a> D. Bowe WR LSU<br /><br /></span>At this point in the draft QBs and G. Olsen will start to be considered along with the best available WR. However, Seth is already 3 deep at TE, and even though he will probably have to replace Palmer due to his huge contract sometime soon, he already has P. Rivers and Campbell "developing" behind him, so no need to grab Quinn or Russell at this point.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">7. </span><a style="font-weight: bold;" href="http://theultimatefantasyleague.googlepages.com/josh">Hanson</a><span style="font-weight: bold;">: G. Olsen TE Miami</span><br /><br />Hanson definitely doesn't need a young QB with V. Young and J. Cutler backing up D. Brees. However, I think TE is a distinct possibility. T. Gonzalez can definitely be relied upon next year, but he is also getting older and will need to be replaced. B. Troupe has had multiple chances to step up, and has failed to do so. Sooner or later Josh will need to find his TE of the future. I think G. Olsen fills that need. Plus, at WR while his stars are older, he already has a collection of 5 young guys with medium to good potential for being quality fantasy starters in the future, so less of a need there.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">8. </span><a style="font-weight: bold;" href="http://theultimatefantasyleague.googlepages.com/veen">Veen</a><span style="font-weight: bold;">: D. Jarrett WR USC</span><br /><br />With 2 WRs in the first round, Paul can now start a complete fantasy squad including 3 WRs.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">9. </span><a style="font-weight: bold;" href="http://theultimatefantasyleague.googlepages.com/josh">Hanson:</a><span style="font-weight: bold;"> R. Meacham WR Tennessee</span><br /><br />The last WR I have going in the 1st round. Having already filled his need at TE, Hanson can take the best value player remaining. I think he goes WR over QB.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">10. </span><a style="font-weight: bold;" href="http://theultimatefantasyleague.googlepages.com/chu">Chu:</a><span style="font-weight: bold;"> B. Quinn QB Notre Dame</span><br /><br />With all the 1st round WRs gone, and no RBs left in the first 2 rounds, as well as the best TE prospect off the board, its time for the QBs to go. I think if Russell ends up in the horrible Oakland situation, that B. Quinn will be the first QB to go, as he will definitely be in a better situation for his development.<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!--
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Detroit Lions:</strong> Joe Thomas, OT Wisconsin<br />I firmly believe that the Lions will (and should) move out of this pick. There should be more than a few teams interested in moving up to get Joe Thomas, Calvin Johnson or Brady Quinn. The most likely scenario I see is Detroit moving down to #5 with Arizona. The one person Arizona needs in this draft is Joe Thomas and there is no way they are getting him at #5. Detroit can acquire extra picks by moving down to #5 and still grab either Quinn or Gaines Adams (and end up paying either less money then they would have to pay them if they were drafted #2)<br /><br /><strong>3. Cleveland Browns:</strong> Adrian Peterson, RB Oklahoma<br />Jamal Lewis is on board, but just for one year. Sounds like the Browns are ready to use Peterson like New England and Indianapolis used Maroney and Addai in 2006. New England and Indianapolis are two pretty good organizations to emulate. If Thomas is still available then he could easily be the pick here. And the Browns could be tempted to take Brady Quinn but they are partially invested in Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson.<br /><br /><strong>4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers:</strong> Calvin Johnson, WR Georgia Tech<br />I think Tampa Bay would be thrilled if they could sit tight at #4 and still get Johnson. Everyone will be sweating in the war room waiting for this to happen, but right now I don’t see any team that is going to make a move into the top 3 to get Johnson. Based on the way the NFL value chart works, it is very difficult to move up into the top 3 from outside of the top 10. So, Minnesota is the only team I really see with much potential to make the move for Johnson.<br /><br /><strong>5. Arizona Cardinals:</strong> Gaines Adams, DE Clemson<br />I think it would be a mistake for Arizona not to move up and grab Thomas, but if they don’t the most sensible pick is Gaines Adams. If you are going to have trouble protecting your QB and can’t get help on the O-line, then why not get a player that is going to make it difficult for other teams to protect their QB. Alan Branch is another possibility, but they spend and early pick on DT Gabe Watson out of Michigan last year, so I don’t see them doing something similar this year.<br /><br /><strong>6. Washington Redskins:</strong> Jamaal Anderson, DE Arkansas<br />The Washington war room should be the busiest on April 28th. The Redskins should really just send out a league wide memo that says “We really, really want to trade the #6 pick, someone please give us something for it.” It’s well documented that Washington is without their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round pick. So, it is logical for them to move down in round 1 in exchange for picks in the 2nd and/or 3rd round. If they stay put then I think they have to grab the best pass rusher available. They generated a league low, 16 sacks in 2006. LaRon Landry might intrigue Washington as well, now that Adam Archuletta has been sent packing and the Washington secondary had trouble creating turnovers in 2006.<br /><br /><strong>7. Minnesota Vikings:</strong> Brady Quinn, QB Notre Dame<br />Minnesota is tough to nail down. They run the ball well and stop the run well but have trouble generating a pass rush. They could be interested in one of the top 2 defensive ends but after spending first round picks the last 2 years on DEs (Kenechi Udeze and Erasmus James) I think that they will be hesitant to do so again. They have a need for a WR, but Calvin Johnson is the only WR that warrants getting drafted in this spot. They are also unsettled at QB. Tavaris Jackson was their 2nd round pick last year. Can they commit to him and pass up a player like Quinn? Based on the way this draft has gone I don’t think so.<br /><br /><strong>8. Atlanta Falcons:</strong> LaRon Landry, S LSU<br />The Matt Schaub deals moves Atlanta into the #8 spot and I’ve got to think they are targeting a specific player with this selection. It could be one of the top two DEs to replace the departed Patrick Kerney, but my money is that they want Landry from LSU. The Falcons biggest weakness last year might have been safety play. Chris Crocker seemingly got beat on every double move and Landry would immediately contribute to Atlanta with his speed and versatility.<br /><br /><strong>9. Miami Dolphins:</strong> Levi Brown, OT Penn State<br />The Dolphins have a lot invested in Daunte Culpepper. If Culpepper is going to lead this team then they need some big men in front of him to pass protect. Culpepper was sacked 21 times in just 4 games in 2006. Although, Keith Traylor will be 38 this season, so DTs Alan Branch or Amobi Okoye could be appealing to Miami. Also, after losing Wes Welker to New England the Dolphins might be interested in grabbing a player like Ted Ginn that could fill Welker’s role as a WR / return man.<br /><br /><strong>10. Houston Texans:</strong> Leon Hall, CB Michigan<br />Now that Houston has made the deal for Matt Schaub we can stop the Brady Quinn talk. Houston could use this pick to grab Levi Brown and upgrade their offensive line, but Houston had the 3rd fewest interceptions in 2006. Hall is the cornerback that is most ready to contribute and he could battle for a starting gig opposite of Dunta Robinson. The best player available is Alan Branch, so Houston could go that route as well.<br /><br /><strong>11. San Francisco 49ers:</strong> Alan Branch, DT Michigan<br />Branch is a top 10 talent that slips because the teams ahead of San Francisco have bigger needs to fill. The 49ers struggled stopping the run at times last year and Branch could come in and start right away. San Francisco has spent the last month addressing needs at secondary and linebacker. One glaring hole they still have is at WR. Ted Ginn or Southern Californian standout Dwayne Jarrett could interest the 49ers, but Branch is the value pick at #11.<br /><br /><strong>12. Buffalo Bills:</strong> Patrick Willis, LB Mississippi<br />Buffalo has lost 3 big pieces to their team in the free agency period: CB Nate Clements, LB London Fletcher, and RB Willis McGahee. I expect the Bills to fill one of those needs with their first pick. Buffalo spent several picks last year on getting younger in the secondary and while Marshawn Lynch is intriguing, I think the best value for the Bills to fill one of those needs is Willis, the top linebacker in the draft.<br /><br /><strong>13. St. Louis Rams:</strong> Amobi Okoye, DT Louisville<br />The only team worse in the NFL at stopping the run in 2006 than the Indianapolis Colts was the St. Louis Rams. Okoye is a phenom at age 19 and should help to improve the Rams’ biggest weakness.<br /><br /><strong>14. Carolina Panthers:</strong> Reggie Nelson, S Florida<br />Reggie Nelson is becoming a hot name around draft circles and some team might look to trade up to grab him (Jacksonville? New England?). Both of Carolina’s starting safeties are on the wrong side of 30 and getting some youth into their secondary couldn’t be a bad thing. Carolina could also grab TE Greg Olsen in this spot or a WR like Ted Ginn.<br /><br /><strong>15. Pittsburgh Steelers:</strong> Adam Carriker, DE Nebraska<br />New Head Coach Mike Tomlin will likely use early picks to solidify his defense. The big question is whether he will continue to use the 3-4 defense that Bill Cowher ran or if he will switch to the 4-3 that Tomlin ran while the defensive coordinator in Minnesota. Regardless of which defense Tomlin decides to play Carriker could fit in as either a 4-3 DE or a 3-4 outside linebacker. Carriker could be the eventual replacement for the departed Joey Porter. Also, note that Pittsburgh’s secondary was atrocious last year and they could use their pick to grab a corner at this spot if they feel the young guys they have in that spot can’t get the job done.<br /><br /><strong>16. Green Bay Packers:</strong> Marshawn Lynch, RB California<br />Green Bay has plenty of holes to fill, but none more glaring then their need at RB. Lynch is the clear cut #2 RB in this year’s draft and would be ready to contribute to the Packer’s offense right from the beginning.<br /><br /><strong>17. Jacksonville Jaguars:</strong> Ted Ginn Jr., WR Ohio State<br />Jacksonville is a solid team with no glaring weaknesses. On defense they ranked high in all 3 major categories: points (4th), rushing (4th), and passing (10th). On offense they were solid accept for the passing game; points (9th), rushing (10th), and passing (24th). They have spent 2 first round picks on wide receivers: Reggie Williams and Matt Jones while both have flashed signs of progress there has not been enough consistency.<br /><br /><strong>18. Cincinnati Bengals:</strong> Paul Posluszny, LB Penn State<br />The Bengals have spent recent first day draft picks on linebackers out of the University of Georgia. Odell Thurman has been great when on the field, which is less each year because of off-the-field incidences. (Thurman was suspended 4 games last year for violating the league’s substance abuse policy). David Pollack missed the entire 2006 season with a broken neck and may never see the playing field again. Also, the Bengals team is in need of character face lift. The linebacker off the field is reportedly a good presence in the locker room and an excellent talent between the lines.<br /><br /><strong>19. Tennessee Titans:</strong> Robert Meacham, WR Tennessee<br />Tennessee has filled on hole on their team by adding CB Nick Harper in free agency, but depending on what happens with Adam Jones, they could be looking for more help at that position. Tennessee has lost top WR Drew Bennett to the Rams and adding local product Robert Meacham for Vince Young would be wise. The Titans could also be looking for a RB to pair with LenDale White, so don’t be surprised to see them pull the trigger on Marshawn Lynch if Green Bay passes.<br /><br /><strong>20. New York Giants:</strong> Darrelle Revis, CB Pittsburgh<br />New York is seemingly out of the RB market with their recent trade for Reuben Droughns. Starting corner, Sam Madison, is in the twilight of his career and Revis would do well to not start as a rookie and spend a year behind Madison learning. Also, Revis brings the added dimension of the return, which New York would be in need of.<br /><br /><strong>21. Denver Broncos:</strong> Jarvis Moss, DE Florida<br />The Broncos have had a busy off-season filling up holes as quickly as they were able to. One hole that remains is a pass rushing DE, after the Broncos failed to lure Patrick Kerney to Denver. Moss brings plenty of speed to the field and would fit in nicely with Denver’s 4-3 scheme.<br /><br /><strong>22. Dallas Cowboys:</strong> Brandon Meriweather, S Miami<br />Look for Dallas to add either a wide receiver of a safety. The defensive secondary was Dallas’ biggest weaknesses in 2006. Safety Roy Williams was a pro bowler, but was beaten in coverage far too many times. The Dallas defense ranked 24th among all teams against the pass. If they choose to overlook the secondary (or are able to sign Ken Hamlin from Seattle), then look for a player like Dwayne Bowe or Dwayne Jarrett to go here. At the start of the 2007 season both starting wide receivers for Dallas (Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn) will be 33 years old.<br /><br /><strong>23. Kansas City Chiefs:</strong> Dwayne Bowe, WR LSU<br />It is no secret what position has been the weakest for the Chiefs this decade. In a draft where there will be plenty of quality wide receivers available late in the first round, I don’t expect the Chiefs to do anything other than pick the highest one left on their board. The selection of Bowe will be the third LSU Tiger selected in the first round<br /><br /><strong>24. New England Patriots:</strong> Chris Houston, CB Arkansas<br />New England has had a very busy off-season. They have improved at WR (Stallworth and Welker) and LB (A. Thomas). And they are rumored to be interested in adding inside linebacker Ed Hartwell. The biggest weakness for the Patriots is in the secondary. Asante Samuel has been franchised and could be gone as soon as next year. Grabbing Houston would give the Pats some much needed depth as well as a future successor for Samuel.<br /><br /><strong>25. New York Jets:</strong> Greg Olsen, TE Miami<br />Olsen saw his draft stock skyrocket after running a blistering 40 time at the combine. Most have him pegged to go around the middle of the first round, but I don’t think his talent level is that high. If he were that good then I think he would have made a bigger impact on the college game. Nevertheless, the Jets are in the market for a TE and this is a good fit for them.<br /><br /><strong>26. Philadelphia:</strong> Michael Griffin, S Texas<br />Donte Stallworth has bolted Philly for New England. However, the Eagles quickly replaced him by bringing Kevin Curtis into the fold. Numerous teams will have safety high on their need this at this point in the draft (Dallas, Philadelphia, New England, San Diego, and New Orleans). Philadelphia can grab the last safety before there is a significant drop-off in level of talent.<br /><br /><strong>27. New Orleans Saints:</strong> Aaron Ross, CB Texas<br />Ross comes off the board right after his fellow secondary mate from Texas. New Orleans was only able to generate 11 interceptions last year and Fred Thomas has clearly lost a step. Thomas is 33 and fellow starter Mike McKenzie is 31. The Saints do not have much talent behind these 2 starters and need to begin developing some.<br /><br /><strong>28. New England Patriots:</strong> Anthony Spencer, DE/OLB Purdue<br />Spencer fits the New England 3-4 system. New England already has another Boilermaker playing the 3-4 outside linebacker position—Roosevelt Colvin has been a productive member of that defense. I fully expect New England to spend at least one pick improving their secondary if not two. If Spencer does not fit the bill then possibly look for New England to grab some added youth at offensive line.<br /><br /><strong>29. Baltimore Ravens:</strong> Joe Staley OT, Central Michigan<br />Starting Right Tackle Tony Pashos has bolted for Jacksonville. Staley could move into the lineup and replace him and eventually be ready to move to the left side to replace Jonathan Ogden (entering his 12th season).<br /><br /><strong>30. San Diego Chargers:</strong> Dwayne Jarrett, WR USC<br />There is no team in the league with fewer holes than San Diego. Wide receiver is a need that sticks out. Vincent Jackson flashed some brilliance at the end of the season, but even if he becomes a quality receiver then they are still looking for someone to play opposite of him. Jarrett is another tall target like Jackson and could create problems for teams with small corners. Jarrett, originally though to be the second WR taken, has seen his stock drop. He’ll need a good 40 time at his pro day to bring himself back up towards the top of the first round.<br /><br /><strong>31. Chicago Bears:</strong> Justin Blalock, G Texas<br />Blalock could be the 4th Texas Longhorn to be drafted in the first round in April. Drafting guards isn’t glorious but games are won at the line of scrimmage.<br /><br /><strong>32. Indianapolis Colts:</strong> Lawrence Timmons, LB Florida State<br />The defending champs continue to lose players in free agency: RB Dominic Rhodes (Oakland), LB Cato June (Tampa Bay), CB Nick Harper (Tennessee) WR Brandon Stokely (Denver) DT Monte Reagor (Philadelphia). Joseph Addai is ready to step up and carry the load at RB and Indy has been investing first day picks into defensive backs the last several years (Marlin Jackson, Kelvin Hayden, and Tim Jennings), so I think he pick here is to replace June. Timmons ran the 40 at 4.52 at the combine and Dungy loves quick linebackers that can fly to the ball. However, the Colts have been hesitant to spend early picks on linebackers in the past. They may choose to grab a big defensive tackle to help upgrade their run defense. Tank Tyler (NC State) and Justin Harrell (Tennessee) come to mind.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!--
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Calvin Johnson’s size, speed, and height probably make the Raiders salivate and there would be room for him if they move Moss, but I just don’t see the Raiders passing on a QB.<br /><br /><strong>2. Arizona Cardinals</strong> * from Detroit: Joe Thomas, OT Wisconsin<br />Detroit has some room to maneuver after their trade with Denver. They filled some holes at RB and their offensive line, but their remains voids at QB and now DB. Quinn could easily be the pick here now, but I think that is too risky of a pick for Millen. I think they trade down and get the DE they covet. Arizona has one glaring need on their team and this the offiensive line. Thomas is the only can't miss prospect and former Steelers' coaches Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm would love to plug him into their system.<br /><br /><strong>3. Cleveland Browns:</strong> Adrian Peterson, RB Oklahoma<br />The Reuben Droughns era is officially over now. Droughns is on his way to NY and Jamal Lewis enters the scene on a 1 year deal. Sounds like the perfect situation to draft Peterson and let them share the load for a year (see: Colts, Indianapolis and Patriots, New England) Adrian Peterson has all the tools necessary to be successful in the NFL including passion for the game (note how he came back to play in the Fiesta Bowl after his collarbone injury) and speed (ran a 4.4 40 time at the Scouting Combine in Indianapolis). The Browns could be tempted to take Brady Quinn but they are partially invested in Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson. And Thomas would fit in nicely as well if available.<br /><br /><strong>4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers:</strong> Calvin Johnson, WR Georgia Tech<br />Tampa is the big winner in the draft. They get the best player on everyone’s board in a position that they need. Johnson is 6’5” 239 pounds and ran the 40 in 4.35 seconds on borrowed shoes. He also doesn’t bring any baggage in the form of ‘me first attitude’, a police record, or laziness. He is this year’s can’t miss pick.<br /><br /><strong>5. Detroit Lions</strong>* from Arizona: Gaines Adams, DE Clemson<br />Deroit is rumored to be very interested in Adams and at the #5 pick he is a great value. Under this scenario Quinn would still be available and might make a tough decision for Millen, but again I think taking a QB this high is too much of a risk for Detroit and their management at this point.<br /><br /><strong>6. Houston Texans</strong>* from Washington: Brady Quinn, QB Notre Dame<br />It is no secret that Washington is looking to move down and acquire more picks since they are without their 2nd, 3rd, or 4th round picks. Houston needs a new signal caller since I fully expect them to deal David Carr to another team in exchange for a 3rd round pick before draft day. And it's very possible that they send that very same 3rd round pick they acquire from dealing Carr in order to move up to spots in round 1 to draft the Notre Dame signal caller. Quinn is a polished passer after several seasons under Charlie Weiss. If Houston sees Quinn slip to this point I think they'll make sure they get him by trading to get ahead of Minnesota. Also, look for Denver to potentially move up into this spot to grab one of the top 2 rated defensive ends.<br /><br /><strong>7. Minnesota Vikings:</strong> LaRon Landry, S LSU<br />Minnesota might show interest in Anderson since they had trouble generating a pass rush in 2006, but after spending first round picks the last 2 years on DEs (Kenechi Udeze and Erasmus James) I think that they will be hesitant to do so again. Minnesota was ranked #1 against the run last year, but 31st against the pass. So, I see them upgrading their secondary. Also grabbing a WR like Ted Ginn Jr. would fill a need, but I can see the Vikings being gun-shy after drafting another WR at #7 hasn’t worked out so well (Troy Williamson, 2004). Quinn could be the pick if he is still on the board, however similar to Cleveland, Minnesota is partially invested in Tavaris Jackson which leads me to believe that they will pass on Quinn.<br /><br /><strong>8. Denver Broncos</strong>* from Washington via Houston: Jamaal Anderson, DE Arkansas<br />Washington has a busy 30 minutes at the top end of round 1. They are looking to move down and find two willing partners. Houston wanted to grab their QB and Denver is looking to get another pass rusher after losing out to Seattle in the bid to get Patrick Kerney. Washington should be able to swap first round picks and pick up Denver's 2nd round pick and pick or 2 more on day 2 of the draft.<br /><br /><strong>9. Miami Dolphins</strong>: Alan Branch, DT Michigan<br />Culpepper was sacked 21 times in just 4 games in 2006. That is a bad sign for the 'Fins if they wish to compete. With that knowledge they may look to plug in Levi Brown from Texas here as the best offensive lineman on the board. However, Branch is just too good to pass up and the Dolphins need to add some youth to their aging defense.<br /><br /><strong>10. Atlanta Falcons:</strong> Leon Hall, CB Michigan<br />In 2006 Atlanta’s weaknesses were secondary play, pass protection, and wide receiver play. And now with the departure of Patrick Kerney, defensive end has just become a need. I think the Falcons jump on either Adams or Anderson if available or they could take a shot on Adam Carriker or Jarvis Moss at this point. I also think Landry would be a great fit into what they do if he is available. Hall can move into the starting lineup along with DeAngelo Hall, Lawyer Milloy and Jimmy Williams (playing safety). Or the Falcons could go after a S like Reggie Nelson and move Jimmy Williams to the cornerback position. New coach Bobby Petrino has been open about his desire to make the offensive line bigger as well, so Levi Jones would not be out of the question with the 10th pick. I highly doubt the Falcons will use this pick to go after a WR though, General Manager Rich McKay has spent the Falcons last 2 first round picks on WRs Michael Jenkins (2004) and Roddy White (2005).<br /><br /><strong>11. San Francisco 49ers:</strong> Ted Ginn Jr., WR Ohio State<br />San Francisco has done little to improve their receiver corps in free agency. They parted ways with Antonio Bryant and then signed speedster Ashlie Lelie to a 2 year deal. Grabbing the 2nd best WR on the board would make sense for the Niners as they continue to give Alex Smith weapons. Ginn also brings a dynamic return game to the table which teams will give extra thought to this year after the success of Devin Hester in Chicago.<br /><br /><strong>12. Buffalo Bills:</strong> Patrick Willis, LB Mississippi<br />Buffalo has numerous holes to fill after a free agency that has seen key players depart (London Fletcher, Nate Clements, and Willis McGahee). Buffalo could choose to use their first pick on upgrading any one of these 3 positions: RB (Lynch), CB (Houston), or LB (Willis). Willis is the top on my board of the 3 players after his strong performance at the combine. I say the Bills take the best players at a position of need, and that happens to be Patrick Willis.<br /><br /><strong>13. St. Louis Rams:</strong> Amobi Okoye, DT Louisville<br />The only team worse in the NFL at stopping the run in 2006 than the Indianapolis Colts was the St. Louis Rams. Okoye is a phenom at age 19 and should help to improve the Rams’ biggest weakness. If either of the top 2 rated defensive tackles are available I do not expect the Rams to hesitate turning in their card to Roger Goodell.<br /><br /><strong>14. Carolina Panthers:</strong> Levi Brown, OT Penn State<br />The Panthers could go several different ways with their first selection. Safety Reggie Nelson would fit with the Panthers. 2 years ago they drafted Thomas Davis and expected him to be their safety of the future but have discovered that he fits better in the LB role. Or Carolina could choose to reach and grab the best TE available (Greg Olsen) after failing to get Tony Gonzalez in free agency when KC resigned the Pro Bowler. However, finding a good left tackle is a hard thing to do. Carolina struggled running the ball and protecting the QB in 2006 and getting another guy in the trenches can only help.<br /><br /><strong>15. Pittsburgh Steelers:</strong> Chris Houston, CB Arkansas<br />New Head Coach Mike Tomlin will likely use early picks to solidify his defense. The big question is whether he will continue to use the 3-4 defense that Bill Cowher ran or if he will switch to the 4-3 that Tomlin ran while the defensive coordinator in Minnesota. Regardless of which defense you play though, all defenses need good corners and Pittsburgh was much worse against the pass (20th) than they were the run (3rd). Houston wowed scouts in Indianapolis by running a 4.32 time in the 40. He isn't as polished as some other cornerbacks, but he has raw ability that others do not possesss.<br /><br /><strong>16. Green Bay Packers:</strong> Marshawn Lynch, RB California<br />Green Bay has lost RB Ahman Green to Houston in free agency and now they are left with a bare cupboard. Lynch is clearly the #2 RB in the year’s draft class. He brings speed and the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield proficiently. Favre is in need of weapons if he is to lead this team back to the postseason, and Lynch is ready to step in and contribute from day one.<br /><br /><strong>17. Jacksonville Jaguars:</strong> Reggie Nelson, S Florida<br />Jacksonville is a solid team with no glaring weaknesses. Safety Deon Grant has moved on to Seattle and Jacksonville has been rumored to be interested in keeping this college star in state. However, Nelson may not be available at 17 after a strong showing at his pro day. New England is also interested in Nelson and with 2 first round picks the Patriots may move ahead in round 1 to grab Nelson.<br /><br /><strong>18. Cincinnati Bengals:</strong> Paul Posluszny, LB Penn State<br />The Bengals have spent recent first day draft picks on linebackers out of the University of Georgia. Odell Thurman has been great when on the field, which is less each year because of off-the-field incidences. (Thurman was suspended 4 games last year for violating the league’s substance abuse policy). David Pollack missed the entire 2006 season with a broken neck and may never see the playing field again. Also, the some good character guys, and Poslusny has been labeled as such.<br /><br /><strong>19. Tennessee Titans:</strong> Robert Meacham, WR Tennessee<br />Tennessee already had eyes on adding a cornerback before the most recent misbehavior by Adam ‘Pacman’ Jones. This last off field encounter may force the Titans to cut ties with him, which would leave a big hole to fill in the secondary. So, Aaron Ross could easily be the pick here. But I expect the Titans to sign free agent CB Nick Harper. The move would strenthen the Titans and weaken their competition in the AFC South. I think it is only a matter of time before this happens. The Titans also have a need to add a playmaker at WR. Drew Bennett has already left Tennessee to catch balls from Marc Bulger and there are plenty of wide receivers in the draft that would make sense with this pick: Dwayne Jarrett was a standout at USC and played under offensive coordinator Norm Chow. Robert Meacham starred on Saturdays his past fall with the University of Tennessee and had a good showing at the combine. I’ll go with Meacham for now, but we’ll have to watch this situation closely as the draft nears to see which WR might be at the top of Tennessee's list.<br /><br /><strong>20. New York Giants:</strong> Darrelle Revis, CB Pittsburgh<br />New York is seemingly out of the RB market with their recent trade for Reuben Droughns. Starting corner, Sam Madison, is in the twilight of his career and Revis would do well to not start as a rookie and spend a year behind Madison learning. Also, Revis brings the added dimension of the return, which New York would be in need of.<br /><br /><strong>21. Washington Redskins* </strong>from Denver: Adam Carriker, DE Nebraska<br />Washington finds itself in a nice place. They have moved down twice now to accumulate extra (and much needed) draft picks. Now, they are in a position to draft the best player available in a position of need. Washington ranked dead last in the NFL in total number of sacks. Getting a player who can rush the passer is paramount.<br /><br /><strong>22. Dallas Cowboys:</strong> Dwayne Jarrett, WR USC<br />Look for Dallas to add either a wide receiver of a safety. The defensive secondary was Dallas’ biggest weaknesses in 2006. Safety Roy Williams was a pro bowler, but was beaten in coverage far too many times. The Dallas defense ranked 24th among all teams against the pass. Dallas may choose to stay in the state and draft one of 2 University of Texas star defensive backs. Both Aaron Ross (CB) and Michael Griffin (S) would make sense in this slot. However, I see Jerry Jones making a splash at WR and grabbing Jarrett. At the start of the 2007 season both starting wide receivers for Dallas (Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn) will be 33 years old.<br /><br /><strong>23. Kansas City Chiefs:</strong> Dwayne Bowe, WR LSU<br />It is no secret what position has been the weakest for the Chiefs this decade. In a draft where there will be plenty of quality wide receivers available late in the first round, I don’t expect the Chiefs to do anything other than pick the highest one left on their board. The selection of Bowe will be the third LSU Tiger selected in the first round.<br /><br /><strong>24. New England Patriots:</strong> Aaron Ross, CB Texas<br />New England has had a very busy offseason. They have improved at WR (Stallworth and Welker) and LB (A. Thomas). And they are rumored to be interested in adding inside linebacker Ed Hartwell. The biggest weakness for the Patriots is in the secondary. Asante Samuel has been franchised and could be gone as soon as next year. Grabbing Ross would give the Pats some much needed depth as well as a future successor for Samuel.<br /><br /><strong>25. New York Jets:</strong> Jarvis Moss, DE Florida<br />The Jets spend last year’s draft upgrading the offensive line and I expect to see them spend the ’07 draft working on the other side of the ball. Moss is a speed rusher that showcased his talents in the National Championship game against Ohio State. Greg Olsen could also be the pick here after running a blistering 40 time at the combine.<br /><br /><strong>26. Philadelphia Eagles:</strong> Michael Griffin, S Texas<br />Donte Stallworth has bolted Philly for New England. Reggie Brown is the only quality WR that the Eagles still have on the roster. So, it is quite possible to use a pick here at WR. However, the of the receivers that are left are Sidney Rice and Anthony Gonzalez and it might be a bit of a reach to take either one here. Starting safety Brian Dawkins is entering his 12th NFL season and 2005 4th round pick Sean Considine has not impressed many people.<br /><br /><strong>27. New Orleans Saints:</strong> Greg Olsen, TE Miami<br />Olsen may not last this long on draft day, but if he does I expect New Orleans to write down his name. The Saints did not get much production out of the tight end position in 2006 and why not give Drew Brees and one of the NFL's highest powered offenses another weapon.<br /><br /><strong>28. New England Patriots:</strong> Brandon Meriweather, S Miami<br />We already discussed the Patriots need to improve their secondary. This pick would give them further depth in case Rodney Harrison gets injured again, and Meriweather can be groomed to replace the aging Harrison.<br /><br /><strong>29. Baltimore Ravens:</strong> Anthony Spencer, DE/OLB Purdue<br />By making a trade for RB Willis McGahee the Patriots have eliminated the need to spend a pick on that position. Baltimore loves to run the 3-4 and to do so you need athletic hybrid players that can do a lot of things. After losing A. Thomas to the Patriots, the Ravens may try to find a similar player in the draft.<br /><br /><strong>30. San Diego Chargers:</strong> Charles Johnson, DE Georgia<br />There is no team in the league with fewer holes than San Diego. Wide receiver is a need that sticks out. Vincent Jackson flashed some brilliance at the end of the season, but even if he becomes a quality receiver then they are still looking for someone to play opposite of him. However, I don't see the value being here to pick a WR. Charles Johnson has spectacular Junior year at Georgia and may see his name called earlier than this on draft day. He is the best player on the board and good teams, have the luxury of picking the best player regardless of position.<br /><br /><strong>31. Chicago Bears:</strong> Justin Blalock, G Texas<br />Blalock could be the 4th Texas Longhorn to be drafted in the first round in April. Drafting guards isn’t glorious but games are won at the line of scrimmage.<br /><br /><strong>32. Indianapolis Colts:</strong> Lawrence Timmons, LB Florida State<br />The defending champs stand to lose several key players in free agency: RB Dominic Rhodes is already gone (Oakland); others to leave soon - LB Cato June (NY Giants?) and CB Nick Harper (Tennessee?). Joseph Addai is ready to step up and carry the load at RB and Indy has been investing first day picks into defensive backs the last several years (Marlin Jackson, Kelvin Hayden, Tim Jennings), so I think he pick here is to replace June. Timmons ran the 40 at 4.52 at the combine and Dungy loves quick linebackers that can fly to the ball.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!--
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Alexander and others, and maybe they will be healthy and their risk factors won't affect them. in which case I will have them ranked way too low, however, I think that the sureness of a guy like W. McGahee producing well week in and week out for an entire season, gives him more value than some guys who may end up finishing ahead of him at the end of the season....<br /><br />1. LDT (my only concern here is the high turnover that comes at the elite RB position. Elite RBs turnover very fast).<br />2. S. Jackson (what's not to love about this up and comer. Gets better each year, and will live up to the hype that accompanied him when he was drafted. May not quite ever become the next Faulk, but close enough.)<br />3. F. Gore (a 49er? This high? Well, he was the #5 RB last year, which many people probably failed to notice, and he is in a stable environment, with an offense that I think will continue to improve with Norv turner as the OC)<br />4. W. Parker (I really was tempted to put him above F. Gore, but there are two things that worry me. He had a heavy reliance on his 11 rushing TDs to get him to the #6 RB last year, and unless you are an elite back, TDs can be a very fickle thing. Plus the coaching change. Rumor has it the Steelers may go to more 4 WR sets, and that sounds like a passing offense to me. Part of the reason Parker fared so well, is that he was in perhaps one of the most run heavy offenses of the decade so far. Is that about to change?)<br />5. T. Henry (This is totally contingent on him playing at least 14 games. Henry has a history of getting dinged up, but almost an equal history of playing through the pain. If he can get 13-14 fantasy games under his belt, I think he'll make the top 5, and if he is healthy for the full slate, look for him to finish 2 or 3).<br />6. R. Johnson (Doesn't get more consistent than this guy. He just finishes in the top 10 year after year after year)<br />7. C. Portis (I know a lot of people will be down on Portis because of the injury, my initial gut feeling is that he will come back just fine, and return to his productive ways)<br />8. L. Johnson (Hanson is going to rip me in the comments for this one, but I worry a lot about L. Johnson. Admittedly I worried last year too with H. Edwards in town, but now that Edwards has had 2 years to screw things up, surely L. Johnson will suffer. Plus, L. Johnson faced one of the heaviest workloads by a back ever. I think he will hurt this year because of it. Top 10 still for sure, but I'm not taking him #2 like everyone else).<br />9. J. Addai (Ah, the homer pick (as in fantasy homer). I really like the potential that Addai has in the high flying Indy offense. There are only two concerns at this point. One is that the Colts bring in another back to split time with him, now that Rhodes is gone. Two, that Addai just isn't strong enough to hold up to a 16 game schedule. )<br />10. W. McGahee (Okay, this is truly a homer pick here. I think that the reason that McGahee is a top 10 back, is just due to the uncertainty below him. I think he will consistently place in the top 15 of backs every week, and over a season where other RBs will get injured and have their ups and downs, I think McGahee sneaks past a some flashier backs to a top 10 ranking).<br /><br />11. L. Maroney (Could he have a year like Dillon did, the year before Maroney showed up? I see a good chance of that.)<br />12. B. Westbrook (When he is healthy, he'll be a top 5 back. Putting him at 12, is factoring in how many games I think he'll miss with injury)<br />13. S. Alexander (I think that the ship has sailed on Alexander. Some people might think I'm crazy, but the year after P. Holmes go hurt the first time, everyone wanted to give him a second chance too. Alexander doesn't get a second chance from me. He's over 30 and an injury risk. His ship has sailed.)<br />14. B. Jacobs (How many carries will R. Droughns get?)<br />15. T. Bell (I'm counting on him catching the ball some to finish up here. Not sure what his skills are in that area since Denver almost never throws to their RBs, so if he lacks receiving skills, then expect T. Bell to drop out of the top 20, and possibly the top 30.)<br />16. A. Green (I've always had a thing for the Houston RB situation, since jumping on D. Davis his rookie year)<br />17. C. Taylor (So, I'm seeing L. Jordan as the standard here for what happens to former backups given starting gigs. First year exceed expectations, finish as top 10 fantasy back. 2nd year they are exhausted from the heaviest workload they have experienced in their career and fall a long way. C. Taylor was already showing signs of breaking down at the end of last season (I probably don't have Taylor low enough, considering how horrible the Minny offense and team is probably going to be.))<br />18. C. Benson (This is all about the situation. I don't like his attitude and am skeptical of his skills if he couldn't outplay T. Jones, but Chicago runs the ball a lot and tend to do a good job of it.)<br />19. E. James (This is the point where you get thrown in merely for being the clear #1 RB in an offense. Too bad for James the talent for this team is clearly set up for throwing the ball.)<br />20. W. Dunn (J. Norwood could hurt Dunn's chances of even making the top 20, depending on how much Atlanta chooses to use him this year.)<br />21. T. Jones (see notes in <a style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: groove" href="http://theultimatefantasyleague.blogspot.com/2007/03/offseason-rb-moves.html">previous post</a>)<br />22. R. Brown (remember when he was such a stud at the combine?)<br />23. Re. Bush (the amazing thing is, he could finish this high without a single rushing yard or TD.)<br />24. C. Williams (ugly back in an ugly offense....ho hum...this really is the dregs of the RBs down here)<br />25. L. Jordan (plays in Oakland, nothing more needs to be said...other than the fact that he now has a slim hope of breaking the top 30, since his OC is no longer a guy running a bed and breakfast).<br />26. M. Jones-Drew (if only F. Taylor had retired or moved on, then Jones-Drew would have easily made my top 15 and possibly top 10.)<br />27. D. McAllister (Assuming that NO doesn't try to get R. Bush more involved in the actual running of the ball)<br />28. J. Jones (I know most people will have M. Barber III over Jones, but until I hear otherwise, I'm going with the guy who will get the yards over the one getting the TDs. I'm not so sure the Dallas offense is going to score as many rushing TDs with Big Tuna out of town.)<br />29. M. Barber III (see above)<br />30. F. Taylor (I had to pick some random back to be #30)<br /><br />Notable backs missing from list:<br />Carolina RBs (situation too confusing with Foster and DeAngelo Williams. And even if one back were to emerge, its still a crappy place to run the ball, when the offense is all about chucking it up to S. Smith and hoping he comes down with it.)<br />Green Bay RBs (I don't even know who the RB here is yet? A rookie possibly?)<br />Buffal RBs (see Green Bay RBs)<br />J. Lewis (I really probably should have given him that ugly #30 spot over F. Taylor, although, as soon as Cleveland drafted A. Peterson I would have just dropped him out of the top 30 again anyway.)<br />Tennessee RBs (see Green Bay RBs)<br />Corey Dillon (sorry you have to be on a team to make my rankings)<br />Kevin Jones (I'm working under the assumption that he's not playing for at least half of the year)<div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!--
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Henry will be the unquestioned starter in Denver, which if he can remain healthy (and unfortunately that is a huge if), he will be a top 5 fantasy back in the coming year. That is huge for <a style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: groove" href="http://theultimatefantasyleague.googlepages.com/peter">Peter</a> as he had Henry on a 1 year .50 deal. <span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"><br /></span><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Willis McGahee to Baltimore<br /><br /></span></span><span style="font-size:0;">I'm not sure what to think of this move. <a style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: groove" href="http://theultimatefantasyleague.googlepages.com/fauble">I have McGahee</a> on one of those ideal contracts just over the line of avoiding holding out. Of course, this won't matter if McGahee never reaches the top 10 of RBs again. My gut is that the move to Baltimore will be a good one. The rushing offense was not great there last year, but perhaps that's because it was based on the aged legs of J. Lewis and M. Anderson. I think that McGahee will help turn things around with his young and talented legs, and will be just good enough to sneak into the bottom half of the top 10 RBs this year.</span><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"><br /></span><br />Ahman Green to Houston</span><br /><br />I think this is a nice move for Green, if for no other reason than a change of scenery. While Houston RBs did not produce well last year, D. Williams (Davis) proved that a back with some talent can produce good numbers in this offense. With Gary Kubiak in town, there is a lot of potential for a RB to perform well, however Green turned 30 in February and has already started to develop a bit of an injury history. My prediction...Green finishes in the top 20. He will perform as a top 10 back when healthy, but will not play a 16 game season.<br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Thomas Jones to the Jets<br /><br /></span>This move seems to be a lateral one at best for Jones. Jones was clearly the better back in Chicago and was getting plenty of playing time in that offense because of it. He will also clearly be the starter for the Jets, but their ability to run the ball, whether because of the skill of the offensive line, or the tougher competition in the AFC East, is much diminished from what Jones enjoyed with the Bears. I look for Jones to be a solid #3 back, but in Chicago he had a decent chance at breaking the top 20. This will open the door for Benson in Chicago. Look for Benson to have similar stats to what Jones had a year ago. (1200-1300 Rushing yards and 6-8 TDs)<span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"><br /></span><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Jamal Lewis to Cleveland</span><br /><br />Is Jamal Lewis even relevant anymore? He could not get anything going in Baltimore last year (25th ranked run offense), and now he moves to Cleveland which had the second worst rushing offense last year. On top of that, all indications seem to be that J. Lewis is only around for a year to help break in A. Peterson, who all the pundits are predicting the Browns will take with the 3rd overall pick. If J. Lewis breaks the top 30 in fantasy backs next season I will be surprised.<br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Dominic Rhodes to Oakland</span><br /><br />This one hurt me a bit. I have Rhodes on <a style="BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: groove" href="http://theultimatefantasyleague.googlepages.com/fauble">my team</a>, for a cheap deal, so I was hoping he might land in one of the multiple open RB situations currently in the league (Tennessee, Green Bay, Buffalo). Shoot I would have even been happy if he landed with the Gents (NYG), so I would have already had the backup for Jacobs on board, but no he heads to Oakland. Even if he was the undisputed #1 in Oakland, I'm not sure that he would have enough opportunity in that offense to make the top 20. With L. Jordan already on board, D. Rhodes is irrelevant. He is a backup on a horrible team, and doesn't deserve a space on a fantasy team anymore.<br /><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Reuben Droughns to the Gents<br /><br /></span>Well I have to admit I was relieved about this signing by the Giants. With all the talk of them getting a RB to play alongside Jacobs, I was really concerned about the hit that might come to Jacobs' value. However, Droughns has to be the back that had the least talent of all the options available in the market. Look for Droughns to fade into oblivion in New York, and look for Jacobs to benefit.<span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold"><br /></span><br /><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Tatum Bell to Detroit</span><br /><br />Ah, my hometown Lions, making an idiot move once again. Don't get me wrong, I think Tatum Bell can help this team in the short term, especially with Kevin Jones' injury that will keep him out half the year or more, but long-term this makes no sense at all. They will only end up with a RB "controversy" when Jones' gets healthy, and what is the point in improving your team for the short term when you are as horrible as the Lions are. Just admit that you aren't going to make any noise this coming season, trade Bly for a piece that will help you long-term and lose as many games as possible so you can pick high again in '08. (You know you are cheering for the wrong football team, when you are already looking ahead to the '08 NFL draft). Anyway, I think this move is a lateral one for T. Bell. His upside was a lot higher in Denver, as opposed to Detroit (which had the worst rushing offense last year). However, he will get a lot more consistent looks out of this offense, than under Shanahan, who would pull him after the slightest sign of fatigue or after the first fumble. In Detroit, Bell will be the man, and if he catches any balls as K. Jones did, I think he can be a top 20 back.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><script type="text/javascript"><!--
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