NFL Mock Draft - 3/12/07

Okay here is my attempted at mocking the first round of the NFL draft that is scheduled the last weekend in April. You can check out my previous attempt at a Mock draft here. Feel free to leave your general comments, or thoughts based on your knowledge of your favorite team.


1. Oakland Raiders: JaMarcus Russell, QB LSU
It seems like a foregone conclusion now that the Raiders and Al Davis will take Russell with their top pick. Russell came in a few pounds overweight to the combine but I don’t think that is enough to scare the Raiders away. Calvin Johnson’s size, speed, and height probably make the Raiders salivate and there would be room for him if they move Moss, but I just don’t see the Raiders passing on a QB.

2. Arizona Cardinals * from Detroit: Joe Thomas, OT Wisconsin
Detroit has some room to maneuver after their trade with Denver. They filled some holes at RB and their offensive line, but their remains voids at QB and now DB. Quinn could easily be the pick here now, but I think that is too risky of a pick for Millen. I think they trade down and get the DE they covet. Arizona has one glaring need on their team and this the offiensive line. Thomas is the only can't miss prospect and former Steelers' coaches Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm would love to plug him into their system.

3. Cleveland Browns: Adrian Peterson, RB Oklahoma
The Reuben Droughns era is officially over now. Droughns is on his way to NY and Jamal Lewis enters the scene on a 1 year deal. Sounds like the perfect situation to draft Peterson and let them share the load for a year (see: Colts, Indianapolis and Patriots, New England) Adrian Peterson has all the tools necessary to be successful in the NFL including passion for the game (note how he came back to play in the Fiesta Bowl after his collarbone injury) and speed (ran a 4.4 40 time at the Scouting Combine in Indianapolis). The Browns could be tempted to take Brady Quinn but they are partially invested in Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson. And Thomas would fit in nicely as well if available.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Calvin Johnson, WR Georgia Tech
Tampa is the big winner in the draft. They get the best player on everyone’s board in a position that they need. Johnson is 6’5” 239 pounds and ran the 40 in 4.35 seconds on borrowed shoes. He also doesn’t bring any baggage in the form of ‘me first attitude’, a police record, or laziness. He is this year’s can’t miss pick.

5. Detroit Lions* from Arizona: Gaines Adams, DE Clemson
Deroit is rumored to be very interested in Adams and at the #5 pick he is a great value. Under this scenario Quinn would still be available and might make a tough decision for Millen, but again I think taking a QB this high is too much of a risk for Detroit and their management at this point.

6. Houston Texans* from Washington: Brady Quinn, QB Notre Dame
It is no secret that Washington is looking to move down and acquire more picks since they are without their 2nd, 3rd, or 4th round picks. Houston needs a new signal caller since I fully expect them to deal David Carr to another team in exchange for a 3rd round pick before draft day. And it's very possible that they send that very same 3rd round pick they acquire from dealing Carr in order to move up to spots in round 1 to draft the Notre Dame signal caller. Quinn is a polished passer after several seasons under Charlie Weiss. If Houston sees Quinn slip to this point I think they'll make sure they get him by trading to get ahead of Minnesota. Also, look for Denver to potentially move up into this spot to grab one of the top 2 rated defensive ends.

7. Minnesota Vikings: LaRon Landry, S LSU
Minnesota might show interest in Anderson since they had trouble generating a pass rush in 2006, but after spending first round picks the last 2 years on DEs (Kenechi Udeze and Erasmus James) I think that they will be hesitant to do so again. Minnesota was ranked #1 against the run last year, but 31st against the pass. So, I see them upgrading their secondary. Also grabbing a WR like Ted Ginn Jr. would fill a need, but I can see the Vikings being gun-shy after drafting another WR at #7 hasn’t worked out so well (Troy Williamson, 2004). Quinn could be the pick if he is still on the board, however similar to Cleveland, Minnesota is partially invested in Tavaris Jackson which leads me to believe that they will pass on Quinn.

8. Denver Broncos* from Washington via Houston: Jamaal Anderson, DE Arkansas
Washington has a busy 30 minutes at the top end of round 1. They are looking to move down and find two willing partners. Houston wanted to grab their QB and Denver is looking to get another pass rusher after losing out to Seattle in the bid to get Patrick Kerney. Washington should be able to swap first round picks and pick up Denver's 2nd round pick and pick or 2 more on day 2 of the draft.

9. Miami Dolphins: Alan Branch, DT Michigan
Culpepper was sacked 21 times in just 4 games in 2006. That is a bad sign for the 'Fins if they wish to compete. With that knowledge they may look to plug in Levi Brown from Texas here as the best offensive lineman on the board. However, Branch is just too good to pass up and the Dolphins need to add some youth to their aging defense.

10. Atlanta Falcons: Leon Hall, CB Michigan
In 2006 Atlanta’s weaknesses were secondary play, pass protection, and wide receiver play. And now with the departure of Patrick Kerney, defensive end has just become a need. I think the Falcons jump on either Adams or Anderson if available or they could take a shot on Adam Carriker or Jarvis Moss at this point. I also think Landry would be a great fit into what they do if he is available. Hall can move into the starting lineup along with DeAngelo Hall, Lawyer Milloy and Jimmy Williams (playing safety). Or the Falcons could go after a S like Reggie Nelson and move Jimmy Williams to the cornerback position. New coach Bobby Petrino has been open about his desire to make the offensive line bigger as well, so Levi Jones would not be out of the question with the 10th pick. I highly doubt the Falcons will use this pick to go after a WR though, General Manager Rich McKay has spent the Falcons last 2 first round picks on WRs Michael Jenkins (2004) and Roddy White (2005).

11. San Francisco 49ers: Ted Ginn Jr., WR Ohio State
San Francisco has done little to improve their receiver corps in free agency. They parted ways with Antonio Bryant and then signed speedster Ashlie Lelie to a 2 year deal. Grabbing the 2nd best WR on the board would make sense for the Niners as they continue to give Alex Smith weapons. Ginn also brings a dynamic return game to the table which teams will give extra thought to this year after the success of Devin Hester in Chicago.

12. Buffalo Bills: Patrick Willis, LB Mississippi
Buffalo has numerous holes to fill after a free agency that has seen key players depart (London Fletcher, Nate Clements, and Willis McGahee). Buffalo could choose to use their first pick on upgrading any one of these 3 positions: RB (Lynch), CB (Houston), or LB (Willis). Willis is the top on my board of the 3 players after his strong performance at the combine. I say the Bills take the best players at a position of need, and that happens to be Patrick Willis.

13. St. Louis Rams: Amobi Okoye, DT Louisville
The only team worse in the NFL at stopping the run in 2006 than the Indianapolis Colts was the St. Louis Rams. Okoye is a phenom at age 19 and should help to improve the Rams’ biggest weakness. If either of the top 2 rated defensive tackles are available I do not expect the Rams to hesitate turning in their card to Roger Goodell.

14. Carolina Panthers: Levi Brown, OT Penn State
The Panthers could go several different ways with their first selection. Safety Reggie Nelson would fit with the Panthers. 2 years ago they drafted Thomas Davis and expected him to be their safety of the future but have discovered that he fits better in the LB role. Or Carolina could choose to reach and grab the best TE available (Greg Olsen) after failing to get Tony Gonzalez in free agency when KC resigned the Pro Bowler. However, finding a good left tackle is a hard thing to do. Carolina struggled running the ball and protecting the QB in 2006 and getting another guy in the trenches can only help.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers: Chris Houston, CB Arkansas
New Head Coach Mike Tomlin will likely use early picks to solidify his defense. The big question is whether he will continue to use the 3-4 defense that Bill Cowher ran or if he will switch to the 4-3 that Tomlin ran while the defensive coordinator in Minnesota. Regardless of which defense you play though, all defenses need good corners and Pittsburgh was much worse against the pass (20th) than they were the run (3rd). Houston wowed scouts in Indianapolis by running a 4.32 time in the 40. He isn't as polished as some other cornerbacks, but he has raw ability that others do not possesss.

16. Green Bay Packers: Marshawn Lynch, RB California
Green Bay has lost RB Ahman Green to Houston in free agency and now they are left with a bare cupboard. Lynch is clearly the #2 RB in the year’s draft class. He brings speed and the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield proficiently. Favre is in need of weapons if he is to lead this team back to the postseason, and Lynch is ready to step in and contribute from day one.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars: Reggie Nelson, S Florida
Jacksonville is a solid team with no glaring weaknesses. Safety Deon Grant has moved on to Seattle and Jacksonville has been rumored to be interested in keeping this college star in state. However, Nelson may not be available at 17 after a strong showing at his pro day. New England is also interested in Nelson and with 2 first round picks the Patriots may move ahead in round 1 to grab Nelson.

18. Cincinnati Bengals: Paul Posluszny, LB Penn State
The Bengals have spent recent first day draft picks on linebackers out of the University of Georgia. Odell Thurman has been great when on the field, which is less each year because of off-the-field incidences. (Thurman was suspended 4 games last year for violating the league’s substance abuse policy). David Pollack missed the entire 2006 season with a broken neck and may never see the playing field again. Also, the some good character guys, and Poslusny has been labeled as such.

19. Tennessee Titans: Robert Meacham, WR Tennessee
Tennessee already had eyes on adding a cornerback before the most recent misbehavior by Adam ‘Pacman’ Jones. This last off field encounter may force the Titans to cut ties with him, which would leave a big hole to fill in the secondary. So, Aaron Ross could easily be the pick here. But I expect the Titans to sign free agent CB Nick Harper. The move would strenthen the Titans and weaken their competition in the AFC South. I think it is only a matter of time before this happens. The Titans also have a need to add a playmaker at WR. Drew Bennett has already left Tennessee to catch balls from Marc Bulger and there are plenty of wide receivers in the draft that would make sense with this pick: Dwayne Jarrett was a standout at USC and played under offensive coordinator Norm Chow. Robert Meacham starred on Saturdays his past fall with the University of Tennessee and had a good showing at the combine. I’ll go with Meacham for now, but we’ll have to watch this situation closely as the draft nears to see which WR might be at the top of Tennessee's list.

20. New York Giants: Darrelle Revis, CB Pittsburgh
New York is seemingly out of the RB market with their recent trade for Reuben Droughns. Starting corner, Sam Madison, is in the twilight of his career and Revis would do well to not start as a rookie and spend a year behind Madison learning. Also, Revis brings the added dimension of the return, which New York would be in need of.

21. Washington Redskins* from Denver: Adam Carriker, DE Nebraska
Washington finds itself in a nice place. They have moved down twice now to accumulate extra (and much needed) draft picks. Now, they are in a position to draft the best player available in a position of need. Washington ranked dead last in the NFL in total number of sacks. Getting a player who can rush the passer is paramount.

22. Dallas Cowboys: Dwayne Jarrett, WR USC
Look for Dallas to add either a wide receiver of a safety. The defensive secondary was Dallas’ biggest weaknesses in 2006. Safety Roy Williams was a pro bowler, but was beaten in coverage far too many times. The Dallas defense ranked 24th among all teams against the pass. Dallas may choose to stay in the state and draft one of 2 University of Texas star defensive backs. Both Aaron Ross (CB) and Michael Griffin (S) would make sense in this slot. However, I see Jerry Jones making a splash at WR and grabbing Jarrett. At the start of the 2007 season both starting wide receivers for Dallas (Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn) will be 33 years old.

23. Kansas City Chiefs: Dwayne Bowe, WR LSU
It is no secret what position has been the weakest for the Chiefs this decade. In a draft where there will be plenty of quality wide receivers available late in the first round, I don’t expect the Chiefs to do anything other than pick the highest one left on their board. The selection of Bowe will be the third LSU Tiger selected in the first round.

24. New England Patriots: Aaron Ross, CB Texas
New England has had a very busy offseason. They have improved at WR (Stallworth and Welker) and LB (A. Thomas). And they are rumored to be interested in adding inside linebacker Ed Hartwell. The biggest weakness for the Patriots is in the secondary. Asante Samuel has been franchised and could be gone as soon as next year. Grabbing Ross would give the Pats some much needed depth as well as a future successor for Samuel.

25. New York Jets: Jarvis Moss, DE Florida
The Jets spend last year’s draft upgrading the offensive line and I expect to see them spend the ’07 draft working on the other side of the ball. Moss is a speed rusher that showcased his talents in the National Championship game against Ohio State. Greg Olsen could also be the pick here after running a blistering 40 time at the combine.

26. Philadelphia Eagles: Michael Griffin, S Texas
Donte Stallworth has bolted Philly for New England. Reggie Brown is the only quality WR that the Eagles still have on the roster. So, it is quite possible to use a pick here at WR. However, the of the receivers that are left are Sidney Rice and Anthony Gonzalez and it might be a bit of a reach to take either one here. Starting safety Brian Dawkins is entering his 12th NFL season and 2005 4th round pick Sean Considine has not impressed many people.

27. New Orleans Saints: Greg Olsen, TE Miami
Olsen may not last this long on draft day, but if he does I expect New Orleans to write down his name. The Saints did not get much production out of the tight end position in 2006 and why not give Drew Brees and one of the NFL's highest powered offenses another weapon.

28. New England Patriots: Brandon Meriweather, S Miami
We already discussed the Patriots need to improve their secondary. This pick would give them further depth in case Rodney Harrison gets injured again, and Meriweather can be groomed to replace the aging Harrison.

29. Baltimore Ravens: Anthony Spencer, DE/OLB Purdue
By making a trade for RB Willis McGahee the Patriots have eliminated the need to spend a pick on that position. Baltimore loves to run the 3-4 and to do so you need athletic hybrid players that can do a lot of things. After losing A. Thomas to the Patriots, the Ravens may try to find a similar player in the draft.

30. San Diego Chargers: Charles Johnson, DE Georgia
There is no team in the league with fewer holes than San Diego. Wide receiver is a need that sticks out. Vincent Jackson flashed some brilliance at the end of the season, but even if he becomes a quality receiver then they are still looking for someone to play opposite of him. However, I don't see the value being here to pick a WR. Charles Johnson has spectacular Junior year at Georgia and may see his name called earlier than this on draft day. He is the best player on the board and good teams, have the luxury of picking the best player regardless of position.

31. Chicago Bears: Justin Blalock, G Texas
Blalock could be the 4th Texas Longhorn to be drafted in the first round in April. Drafting guards isn’t glorious but games are won at the line of scrimmage.

32. Indianapolis Colts: Lawrence Timmons, LB Florida State
The defending champs stand to lose several key players in free agency: RB Dominic Rhodes is already gone (Oakland); others to leave soon - LB Cato June (NY Giants?) and CB Nick Harper (Tennessee?). Joseph Addai is ready to step up and carry the load at RB and Indy has been investing first day picks into defensive backs the last several years (Marlin Jackson, Kelvin Hayden, Tim Jennings), so I think he pick here is to replace June. Timmons ran the 40 at 4.52 at the combine and Dungy loves quick linebackers that can fly to the ball.