After working on my previous post, I realized that I needed to start to get together my early '07 fantasy RB rankings. Otherwise, I'll end up with 15 RBs I think will finish in the top 10. So here is my very early, subject to a lot of change shot at ranking the top 30 or so RBs....(If you want to see this list without the comments and including '06 fantasy stats, click here).
Just to clarify, my rankings are not so much my predictions, as they are my value for each player. What I mean, is that there is a certain amount of risk associated with various players that hurts their value. Now sure I may be wrong about guys like Westbrook, LJ, S. Alexander and others, and maybe they will be healthy and their risk factors won't affect them. in which case I will have them ranked way too low, however, I think that the sureness of a guy like W. McGahee producing well week in and week out for an entire season, gives him more value than some guys who may end up finishing ahead of him at the end of the season....
1. LDT (my only concern here is the high turnover that comes at the elite RB position. Elite RBs turnover very fast).
2. S. Jackson (what's not to love about this up and comer. Gets better each year, and will live up to the hype that accompanied him when he was drafted. May not quite ever become the next Faulk, but close enough.)
3. F. Gore (a 49er? This high? Well, he was the #5 RB last year, which many people probably failed to notice, and he is in a stable environment, with an offense that I think will continue to improve with Norv turner as the OC)
4. W. Parker (I really was tempted to put him above F. Gore, but there are two things that worry me. He had a heavy reliance on his 11 rushing TDs to get him to the #6 RB last year, and unless you are an elite back, TDs can be a very fickle thing. Plus the coaching change. Rumor has it the Steelers may go to more 4 WR sets, and that sounds like a passing offense to me. Part of the reason Parker fared so well, is that he was in perhaps one of the most run heavy offenses of the decade so far. Is that about to change?)
5. T. Henry (This is totally contingent on him playing at least 14 games. Henry has a history of getting dinged up, but almost an equal history of playing through the pain. If he can get 13-14 fantasy games under his belt, I think he'll make the top 5, and if he is healthy for the full slate, look for him to finish 2 or 3).
6. R. Johnson (Doesn't get more consistent than this guy. He just finishes in the top 10 year after year after year)
7. C. Portis (I know a lot of people will be down on Portis because of the injury, my initial gut feeling is that he will come back just fine, and return to his productive ways)
8. L. Johnson (Hanson is going to rip me in the comments for this one, but I worry a lot about L. Johnson. Admittedly I worried last year too with H. Edwards in town, but now that Edwards has had 2 years to screw things up, surely L. Johnson will suffer. Plus, L. Johnson faced one of the heaviest workloads by a back ever. I think he will hurt this year because of it. Top 10 still for sure, but I'm not taking him #2 like everyone else).
9. J. Addai (Ah, the homer pick (as in fantasy homer). I really like the potential that Addai has in the high flying Indy offense. There are only two concerns at this point. One is that the Colts bring in another back to split time with him, now that Rhodes is gone. Two, that Addai just isn't strong enough to hold up to a 16 game schedule. )
10. W. McGahee (Okay, this is truly a homer pick here. I think that the reason that McGahee is a top 10 back, is just due to the uncertainty below him. I think he will consistently place in the top 15 of backs every week, and over a season where other RBs will get injured and have their ups and downs, I think McGahee sneaks past a some flashier backs to a top 10 ranking).
11. L. Maroney (Could he have a year like Dillon did, the year before Maroney showed up? I see a good chance of that.)
12. B. Westbrook (When he is healthy, he'll be a top 5 back. Putting him at 12, is factoring in how many games I think he'll miss with injury)
13. S. Alexander (I think that the ship has sailed on Alexander. Some people might think I'm crazy, but the year after P. Holmes go hurt the first time, everyone wanted to give him a second chance too. Alexander doesn't get a second chance from me. He's over 30 and an injury risk. His ship has sailed.)
14. B. Jacobs (How many carries will R. Droughns get?)
15. T. Bell (I'm counting on him catching the ball some to finish up here. Not sure what his skills are in that area since Denver almost never throws to their RBs, so if he lacks receiving skills, then expect T. Bell to drop out of the top 20, and possibly the top 30.)
16. A. Green (I've always had a thing for the Houston RB situation, since jumping on D. Davis his rookie year)
17. C. Taylor (So, I'm seeing L. Jordan as the standard here for what happens to former backups given starting gigs. First year exceed expectations, finish as top 10 fantasy back. 2nd year they are exhausted from the heaviest workload they have experienced in their career and fall a long way. C. Taylor was already showing signs of breaking down at the end of last season (I probably don't have Taylor low enough, considering how horrible the Minny offense and team is probably going to be.))
18. C. Benson (This is all about the situation. I don't like his attitude and am skeptical of his skills if he couldn't outplay T. Jones, but Chicago runs the ball a lot and tend to do a good job of it.)
19. E. James (This is the point where you get thrown in merely for being the clear #1 RB in an offense. Too bad for James the talent for this team is clearly set up for throwing the ball.)
20. W. Dunn (J. Norwood could hurt Dunn's chances of even making the top 20, depending on how much Atlanta chooses to use him this year.)
21. T. Jones (see notes in previous post)
22. R. Brown (remember when he was such a stud at the combine?)
23. Re. Bush (the amazing thing is, he could finish this high without a single rushing yard or TD.)
24. C. Williams (ugly back in an ugly offense....ho hum...this really is the dregs of the RBs down here)
25. L. Jordan (plays in Oakland, nothing more needs to be said...other than the fact that he now has a slim hope of breaking the top 30, since his OC is no longer a guy running a bed and breakfast).
26. M. Jones-Drew (if only F. Taylor had retired or moved on, then Jones-Drew would have easily made my top 15 and possibly top 10.)
27. D. McAllister (Assuming that NO doesn't try to get R. Bush more involved in the actual running of the ball)
28. J. Jones (I know most people will have M. Barber III over Jones, but until I hear otherwise, I'm going with the guy who will get the yards over the one getting the TDs. I'm not so sure the Dallas offense is going to score as many rushing TDs with Big Tuna out of town.)
29. M. Barber III (see above)
30. F. Taylor (I had to pick some random back to be #30)
Notable backs missing from list:
Carolina RBs (situation too confusing with Foster and DeAngelo Williams. And even if one back were to emerge, its still a crappy place to run the ball, when the offense is all about chucking it up to S. Smith and hoping he comes down with it.)
Green Bay RBs (I don't even know who the RB here is yet? A rookie possibly?)
Buffal RBs (see Green Bay RBs)
J. Lewis (I really probably should have given him that ugly #30 spot over F. Taylor, although, as soon as Cleveland drafted A. Peterson I would have just dropped him out of the top 30 again anyway.)
Tennessee RBs (see Green Bay RBs)
Corey Dillon (sorry you have to be on a team to make my rankings)
Kevin Jones (I'm working under the assumption that he's not playing for at least half of the year)
Friday, March 09, 2007
RB Rankings
Posted by Chremdacasi at 10:35 PM
Labels: Commish, Rankings RB
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11 comments:
Well, I have a couple things to say I suppose, most notably that Norv Turner (the main reason why San Fran did so unexpectedly well offensively) is the coach of San Diego now, so Frank Gore won't match his stats of last year, although he will fumble less and may score a couple more times. Another response, while LJ did have one of the heaviest workloads of all time, it won't effect him directly for a few years. Edwards is a run first man and LJ will be in the top 5 consistently. Also, move Portis, R. Brown, Maroney, McGahee and R. Bush up a couple or few. Move A. Green, Parker, B. Jacobs, and T. Bell down. Detroit just signed Duckett, they've got K. Jones, who will quickly steal the starting role. My top 5: LT, S. Jackson, LJ, Portis, and all these I could see at #5: McGahee, Maroney, T. Henry, Gore, Alexander.
Thanks for the info. on Norv. I was thinking he was still around, had forgotten that SD got him. That knocks him down a bit, since part of the reason I kept him ahead of Parker was the consistency in coaching factor. I think I still like his yardage numbers slightly better than Parker's TD numbers from last year. I do still think LJ will suffer this year, as a result of the workload last year, plus, that offensive line is getting older, and as you will probably find out as this blog goes on, I'm an Edwards hater. The thought with T. Bell is he plays a full season as a starter and that they put K. Jones on the IR. If that does not develop, T. Bell will move down my rankings closer to the season. I don't think Duckett changes anything though, since he couldn't even play over Betts in Washington. (I do agree that K. Jones will push out T. Bell when he comes back though).
I respect you for having the guts to rank LJ down at 8th when it has to potential to get you mocked, but I have to disagree. I mean you kind of contradict yourself. You talk about these being based on value not necessarily predictions and looking at risk factors. In that case how can you have LJ behind Portis. Portis is a much bigger injury risk, plus Portis has a much larger chance of losing carries because of the way Betts finished the 2006 season. LJ has never been hurt (knock on wood), he has no competition behind him, he catches the ball as well as almost any RB, and he plays for a coach that is committed to the run. I know you are an Edwards hater (still not sure why, since he was able to get the Chiefs to the playoffs where previous coaches had failed in recent history). Plus, Edwards is part of the Dungy coaching tree! (gotta get my Colts plug in there while I can.)
You may be right about Portis, Hanson. I haven't really gotten much info. on Portis and his injury and such. That is the bigger concern to me. I'm not concerned about Betts taking much away though. Portis is too talented to give way to Betts. Can someone fill me in on what Portis' injuries were last year? And does anyone have any recent updates on the guy? As I hear more going forward in the offseason, I will adjust my RB accordingly.
I don't have any new information on Portis' injury, but what I do know is that players are more susceptible to get injured when they have been injured before. And don't overlook Betts, he has plenty of talent and proved that he can be productive in their offense. The 2 RB system is in vogue in the NFL which is known to be a copy cat league. I'm not worried about Portis losing his starting job, but I have my reservations that Portis might lose 8-10 carries to Betts, which lessens the amount of punishments Portis takes and theoretically keeps him stronger for the end of games and end of the season. In LJ's case, there isn't a back of Betts' quality behind him, so LJ is going to be the workhorse and get almost all the carries in KC.
I agree that the 2 RB system is in vogue, however that doesn't mean a RB can't succeed in that system. in fact, M. Jones-Drew had less carries than F. Taylor, but finished #7 overall in fantasy last year. So, once you get out of the top 3 at the position, it doesn't necessarily matter if there is a 2nd back around "stealing" carries. As long as the RB is in a good situation and has enough skills to take advantage of the carries they get. I think L. Johnson will look like S. Alexander did last year before he got injured (quite average) and I do think there will be a significant injury to him at some point in the season as well. I'll take a healthy Portis (hopefully) getting 2/3 of the carries each game to LJ getting all the carries for 8 games (part of the reason I see LJ as likely to get injured, is because of the lack of a 2nd back to take some of the load off).
If RBs thrive so much when there is a second back around, then why do you have M. Jones-Drew ranked 26th!! He finished 7th last year when he got fewer carries than Taylor. Now, you claim "if only F. Taylor had retired or moved on, then Jones-Drew would have easily made my top 15 and possibly top 10.)"
Which is it? Is it better to have a 2nd back around or not? You seem to have double standard on the situation. You reward Portis over LJ despite the 2 back system, and yet the only reason you site for having Jones-Drew not in the top 10 or top 15 is the presence of Fred Taylor.
I was merely making the point that a back in a 2 back system can make the top 10. So that is not something that should disqualify Portis from possibly outperforming backs in a single back system.
However, you are declaring that Portis is in a 2 back system. Well, until we see that on the field, that statement is quite bold. Part of my projection is working under the assumption that the split will be close to what it was before his injury. I'm going to have to see an Addai/Rhodes type of split before I believe it, when talking about a guy as talented and established as Portis.
I realized that I came off a bit strong on my phrasing. I'm not sure if Portis will be splitting carries with Betts. My point is that he has a much greater chance of splitting than LJ. And if your rankings are based on large part of risks, then I don't see how you can ignore that.
On a separate note, how can you rank Jones Drew that low? He was a beast last year while splitting time. He isn't going to get any less carries than he did this past year. The situation even with Taylor there can't be any worse than last year. How can you rank him 19 spots lower than he finished having that knowledge?
Overall I can't complain too much because what I want is your opinion based on what you know/think. Obviously it is going to be different than my opinion.
I had Jones-Drew low for a few reasons. First, I thought he was one of the rookie back (like Addai and Re. Bush) who had a 4TD game at some point worth 40 or so fantasy points that bumped up their place in the final rankings perhaps in a deceiving manner. I checked back and this was not the case, so I will probably bump him up just because of this in my 2nd set of rankings. The other two reasons though will still keep him from getting too high (top 10). M. Jones-Drew was a heavy TD guy. TDs are great, but unless you are an elite back, they can be fickle. It would not be unheard of for his TDs to fall back to the 6-8 range, and this would hurt his value. The other issue is F. Taylor being around. As we get closer to the season, I may decide this is less and less of an issue, however, if it is a 50/50 sort of split this scares me. Jones-Drew proved you can make top 10 despite this, however, for my draft picks, I want a guy I can count on more reliably. So, I will put guys who will probably be less productive and are almost definitely less talented ahead of him. (Although, like I said, I do see a high likelihood of Jones-Drew moving up these rankings in the future.)
Well, you got me there with Jones Drew. I have always given more credit to guys who get yards rather than touchdowns. Yards are much easier to count on then touchdowns. I haven't seen Jones-Drew's stats, but if he is touchdown heavy then I wouldn't have a problem ranking him a littler lower; however, I have a feeling that it wouldn't be enough for me to drop him down to 26th.
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