Thursday, April 12, 2007

NFL Mock Draft 4/12/2007

Well, the NFL Draft is fast approaching. Only a few short weeks and we'll be able to waste away a perfectly good Saturday watching Chris Berman break down nicknames for the newest members of the NFL. What follows is another installation of my projection of first round selections in the 2007 NFL Draft. Included are a few trades that I think we might see on draft day. Have a read and feel free to leave your comments afterwards.


1. Oakland Raiders: JaMarcus Russell, QB LSU
I think Oakland owner, Al Davis is desperate to find a way where he can pick Calvin Johnson instead of a quarterback. However, things do not look promising on that front, and if they can’t find an adequate QB before the draft then the Raiders have to take QB with their first pick and Russell seems to be a better fit than Quinn. Although, I still hold the notion that Oakland should contact Jacksonville about Byron Leftwich in order to make it possible to grab Calvin Johnson, the best player in the draft.

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers* from Detroit: Calvin Johnson, WR Georgia Tech (compensation for the pick: Tampa’s second round pick acquired from Indy and Tampa’s 3rd round pick, giving Detroit the 64th and 68th overall picks)
I firmly believe that the Lions will (and should) move out of this pick. Jon Gruden gushes over Calvin Johnson. While Tampa could possibly wait and see Johnson fall to them, I think they’ll get anxious and make a draft day deal with Detroit after Oakland has turned in their draft card to the commissioner with Russell’s name written down.

3. Cleveland Browns: Joe Thomas, OT Wisconsin
Cleveland has plenty of options at the #3 spot. They could take Brady Quinn, an Ohio native. They could grab Adrian Peterson to be Jamal Lewis’ caddy for a year. Or they could grab the best offensive lineman in the draft, in Joe Thomas. Last year the Browns suffered a rash of injuries on the offensive lineman and they would do well to grab Thomas as an anchor for the group. Quality RBs are easier to find (although some think Peterson may be a great one) and picking a QB this early is a risky business – too risky for an already on thin ice coach, Romeo Crennel.

4. Detroit Lions* from Tampa Bay: Brady Quinn, QB Notre Dame
I love the move down by Detroit to #4. They can acquire extra picks (even if not enough to make the trade ‘even’ based on the NFL draft chart). Tampa Bay would receive 2,600 points in value while Detroit would receive 2,320 value points. However, Detroit is still going to end up with either Quinn, J. Thomas, or G. Adams – all of which they are interested. And not only do they get extra picks, but they also will not have to give their top pick as large of a contract since NFL rookie contracts are somewhat slotted based on where they are drafted.

5. Arizona Cardinals: Gaines Adams, DE Clemson
Arizona must be hoping that Detroit covets Quinn or Adams and that Cleveland makes Peterson their pick, so that Arizona could have a shot at OT Joe Thomas. However, I do not see that happening and expect Arizona to end up with the top pass rusher out of Clemson. Certainly not a bad pick for Arizona, but oh what things could be if they could get their offensive line help. Of course they could choose to take OT Levi Brown, but I think the value here is with Adams. Maybe Arizona will look to trade down and then pick Levi Brown.

6. Buffalo Bills* from Washington: Adrian Peterson, RB Oklahoma
(Compensation for the pick: Washington receives Buffalo’s 3rd and 4th round picks)
Washington, being without picks in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round, should look to trade down early in the draft. Although knowing Daniel Snyder maybe we’ll see them give up all their picks in the 2008 draft to move up to draft Calvin Johnson. I don’t think there is anyone at #6 that Washington must have, so swapping with Buffalo would be prudent. Buffalo needs a workhorse back after parting with Willis McGahee and they have an extra 3rd pick this year from Baltimore that allows them the freedom to move up in the draft.

7. Minnesota Vikings: LaRon Landry, S LSU
Minnesota runs the ball well is effective in stopping the run well but have trouble generating a pass rush. They could be interested in one of the top 2 defensive ends but after spending first round picks the last 2 of the last 3 years on DEs (Kenechi Udeze and Erasmus James) I think that they will be hesitant to do so again. They have a need for a WR, but Calvin Johnson is the only WR that warrants getting drafted in this spot. Landry is an impact player that would immediately upgrade their secondary. He might not be able to crack the starting lineup in year one with Minnesota, but his versatility would allow for him to play in the nickel defense and the Vikings could groom him to start in 2008.

8. Atlanta Falcons: Jamaal Anderson, DE Arkansas
The Matt Schaub deals moves Atlanta into the #8 spot. My feeling is that Rich McKay is hoping to see Landry be available at this spot. But I don’t see him slipping past Washington (if they keep their pick) and Minnesota. If Landry is gone, then I think the Falcons will be picking from one of 2 players: either grab Levi Brown and continue the steps to make their O-line bigger or take the 2nd best DE in the group to replace the departed Patrick Kerney. My money is on them taking Anderson in hopes that he can perform at a high level like the original ‘dirty bird’ running back Jamal Anderson.

9. Miami Dolphins: Levi Brown, OT Texas
The Dolphins have a lot invested in Daunte Culpepper. If Culpepper is going to lead this team then they need some big men in front of him to pass protect. Culpepper was sacked 21 times in just 4 games in 2006. Although, Keith Traylor will be 38 this season, so DTs Alan Branch or Amobi Okoye could be appealing to Miami. Also, after losing Wes Welker to New England the Dolphins might be interested in grabbing a player like Ted Ginn that could fill Welker’s role as a WR / return man.

10. Houston Texans: Leon Hall, CB Michigan
Houston’s trade with Atlanta may have ruined their chances of getting OT Levi Brown. However, Houston’s line saw improvement in pass protection last year. David Carr was sacked more than any other QB in 2004 and 2005. In 2006, 7 Quarterbacks were sacked more than Carr. One of Houston’s other weaknesses was their inability to create turnovers. The Texans had the 3rd fewest interceptions in 2006. Hall is the cornerback that is most ready to contribute and he could battle for a starting gig opposite of Dunta Robinson.

11. San Francisco 49ers: Adam Carriker, DE Nebraska
Reports are that the 49ers fell in love with Carriker at the Senior Bowl. Carriker is the hybrid type player that would fit ideally in the 3-4 defensive scheme that Mike Nolan is forming in San Francisco.

12. Washington Redskins* from Buffalo: Amobi Okoye, DT Louisville
Washington has a leaky defense, and it’s leaky everywhere. I expect them to draft the best defensive players regardless of position when they turn in their card to Roger Goodell. In 2006 Washington was 27th in points given up, 31st in total defense, 27th against the run, 23rd against the pass. They had fewer sacks than any other team, fewest interceptions, and only had one more fumble than the Raiders defense to keep them from finishing last in that category too. Okoye is one the fast risers in the draft and evaluators love that he is only 19 years old. Daniel Snyder is probably giddy over the thought of being able to give this youngster 3 monster contacts over the length of his career.

13. St. Louis Rams: Patrick Willis, LB Mississippi
The only team worse in the NFL at stopping the run in 2006 than the Indianapolis Colts was the St. Louis Rams. St. Louis might be interested in DT Alan Branch, but after 2003 first round pick Jimmy Kennedy proved to be a bust, I think Willis is the safer pick here. Willis should be ready to fit into the starting lineup immediately and provide run support for the porous defense.

14. Carolina Panthers: Alan Branch, DT Michigan
Rumors are starting stir that Kris Jenkins may be on his way out of Carolina. If that is the case then getting Branch to fill in immediately makes sense. Branch was once a sure-fire first round pick, but poor workouts at the combine and Michigan’s pro day has seen his value drop.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers: Darrelle Revis, CB Pittsburgh
I expect new, defensive-minded Head Coach, Mike Tomlin to use early picks getting players on defense that he is comfortable with. Last season the Steelers biggest weakness on defense was their secondary play. And while it remains to be seen whether Pittsburgh will play the 4-3 or 3-4, both schemes call for talented corners. A bonus here is that Revis is a local product (played at the University of Pittsburgh) and fans always like to see familiar names be called on draft day.

16. Green Bay Packers: Greg Olsen, TE Miami
Many mock drafts project Cal running back Marshawn Lynch in this spot, and I was in that camp until recently. Lynch’s stock is slipping and NFL teams are recognizing that they are able to find capable players later in the draft and in free agency. And my good friend, The Commish, likes to remind me that it is typical for RBs to slide on draft day. I think the Packers will reach out and grab another weapon to appease their franchise QB who should be tutoring a young QB instead of pretending like he is one.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars: Reggie Nelson, S Florida
The Jaguars aren’t the only team interested in the talented safety from the National Champions, so don’t be surprised if some team makes a move to get ahead of Jacksonville in round 1. If Nelson is still available at #17 I fully expect the Jaguars to grab him and never look back. Nelson can replace Deon Grant, and again fans will be happy to see a familiar face on their NFL franchise (Nelson was making plays regularly on Saturdays last fall about 70 miles away from Jacksonville).

18. Cincinnati Bengals: Lawrence Timmons, LB Florida State
The Bengals have spent recent first day draft picks on linebackers out of the University of Georgia. Odell Thurman has been great when on the field, which is less each year because of off-the-field incidences. (Thurman was suspended 4 games last year for violating the league’s substance abuse policy). David Pollack missed the entire 2006 season with a broken neck and may never see the playing field again. Timmons performed well at the combine and his pro day and does not come into the league with character problems or baggage – and that is something that Cincinnati must make a priority.

19. Tennessee Titans: Robert Meacham, WR Tennessee
Tennessee has filled on hole on their team by adding CB Nick Harper in free agency, but now that Adam Jones has been suspended for a year, they could be looking for more help at that position. Tennessee has lost top WR Drew Bennett to the Rams and adding local product Robert Meacham is a possibility. The Titans could also be looking for a RB to pair with LenDale White, so don’t be surprised to see them pull the trigger on Marshawn Lynch if Green Bay passes. However, with the character concerns surrounding Lynch and their experience with Jones, I think they’ll pass on any who is questionable with their first round pick.

20. New York Giants: Paul Posluszny, LB Penn State
New York was unable to add LB Al Wilson from Denver because of a failed physical, so they would very well look to grab the best linebacker in the NCAA last year. Posluszny won’t blow you out of the water with his workout numbers, but he is a young man that is able to make plays on the football field.

21. Denver Broncos: Jarvis Moss, DE Florida
The Broncos have had a busy off-season filling up holes as quickly as they were able to. One hole that remains is a pass rushing DE, after the Broncos failed to lure Patrick Kerney to Denver. Moss and Anthony Spencer are the best pass rushers left on the board if they choose to go that route. They could also take a look at fast rising OT Joe Staley, but with Denver still using the zone blocking scheme I don’t expect them to use an early pick on an offensive lineman.

22. Dallas Cowboys: Ted Ginn Jr., WR Ohio State
The defensive secondary was Dallas’ biggest weaknesses in 2006. The Dallas defense ranked 24th among all teams against the pass. They were able to sign safety, Ken Hamlin, from Seattle. That makes me think that they will use this pick to either grab a young corner like Aaron Ross or take a WR. At the start of the 2007 season both starting wide receivers for Dallas (Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn) will be 33 years old. Getting a player like Ginn who can develop behind two of the best in the league is prudent.

23. Kansas City Chiefs: Dwayne Bowe, WR LSU
Kansas City’s offensive line is beginning to show their age, which is why I expect them to take a long look at Joe Staley if he is still around. However, I do not think that they will be able to overlook their glaring need at WR, especially with quality players such as Bowe, Dwayne Jarrett, and co. available.

24. New England Patriots: Chris Houston, CB Arkansas
New England has had a very busy off-season. They have improved at WR (Stallworth and Welker) and LB (A. Thomas). And they are rumored to be interested in adding inside linebacker Ed Hartwell. The biggest weakness for the Patriots is in the secondary. Franchised CB Asante Samuel has not reached and accord on a long-term deal and could even demand a trade before the season begins or threaten with a holdout. The longer this situation continues to linger the greater the chance the Samuel will not be around after the 2007. Houston impressed scouts with his sub 4.4, 40 time and should see his name called before round 1 is complete.

25. New York Jets: Anthony Spencer, DE/OLB Purdue
New York has still yet to replace their top pass rusher of 2 years ago when they traded John Abraham to Atlanta. Spencer is a quality defender that fits into the Jets 3-4 scheme and can improve the teams pass rush.

26. Philadelphia Eagles: Michael Griffin, S Texas
Philadelphia is one of the top organizations in the NFL; they make smart, shrewd decisions regarding personnel. Therefore, they are in excellent shape heading into 2007 and can do a number of things with their initial pick. Safety is a position where youth could be pursued for Philly, so I’ll saddle them with Griffin from Texas.

27. New Orleans Saints: Aaron Ross, CB Texas
Ross comes off the board right after his fellow secondary mate from Texas. New Orleans was only able to generate 11 interceptions last year and Fred Thomas has clearly lost a step. Thomas is 33 and fellow starter Mike McKenzie is 31. The Saints do not have much talent behind these 2 starters and need to begin developing some. Ross is the best cornerback available in the draft and makes complete sense for New Orleans in this spot.

28. New England Patriots: Brandon Meriweather, S Miami
To be honest I have no idea what New England will do in the draft. I tried to get some insight from The Commish (a noted Pats fan), but he did not have much of a clue either. What I do know is that their secondary is thin and was probably their biggest weakness in 2007. Thus, I have them selecting 2 secondary players with their first round picks. However, Scott Pioli could very well draft a player that I have never heard of that will be starting in the Pro Bowl in 2009.

29. Baltimore Ravens: Joe Staley OT, Central Michigan
Starting Right Tackle Tony Pashos has bolted for Jacksonville. Staley could move into the lineup and replace him and eventually be ready to move to the left side to replace Jonathan Ogden (entering his 12th season), who may retire before the 2007 season begins. Staley is one of the players that has been rising in recent weeks thanks to good workouts. So, he could see his name go off the board earlier than this since quality and quantity are both good things to have on your offensive line. However, if he makes is to pick 29 then expect Baltimore to place their hat on his head.

30. San Diego Chargers: Dwayne Jarrett, WR USC
One month ago I would have been shocked to see Jarrett as the 5th WR drafted, but that is what a slow 40 time will do to you. (Jarrett ran his 40 time in the 4.6 range). Nonetheless, Jarrett was able to get open and make plays against Division I opponents on a regular basis at USC. San Diego is looking for someone to insert opposite of Vincent Jackson now that Keenan McCardell is on his way out. I think San Diego will make the pick to keep Jarrett on the West Coast for a few more years.

31. Chicago Bears: Tony Ugoh, OT Arkansas
This has not been a great off-season for the NFC champs. Thomas Jones was sent packing to New York for little compensation. Franchised linebacker Lance Briggs is threatening a holdout and is seeking a trade. But on the bright side Bears fans – you still play in the NFC North, which means next year you’ll get to play Detroit, Minnesota, and Green Bay twice each. On to the draft…Chicago could use another body on the offensive line and you can take your pick who you think the next best is after Staley is gone. Ugoh, Justin Blalock, Ben Grubbs.

32. Indianapolis Colts: Steve Smith, WR USC
I never thought that Steve Smith would be drafted this close to teammate Dwayne Jarrett, but with Jarrett’s slow 40 time and Smith’s quick one (4.4 seconds) you get one falling star and another rising one. Since Tony Dungy has been the coach in Indy they have yet to use a first round pick on a linebacker. In the Tampa 2 defense Dungy can find “system” linebackers that you do not need to spend a high pick on. Losing CB Nick Harper hurts as well, but Indy has been investing first day picks on defensive backs for several years now. I expect this pick to come down to either WR or DT. Justin Harrell or Tank Tyler might prove to be appealing as bandages to help heal their poor run defense. However, my thought is that they’ll grab a WR. They have lost #3 WR Brandon Stokely and #4 WR Aaron Morehead looks like he might be on his way to Minnesota. That means Indy will be looking for a polished WR that can play in the slot in 3 wide receiver sets. Steve Smith is that polished WR that could contribute immediately to another championship run.

2 comments:

Chremdacasi said...

Thanks for the shout out there Hanson. Its a gutsy call by you leaving Lynch out of the first round altogether (and having Peterson fall to #6 for that matter), but it would not surprise me if that is how things go down. The only other guy you are missing out on dropping is Jarrett out of the first round. Nobody is going to want the next Mike Williams on their team, and that is what Jarrett is going to be.

Hanson said...

Jarrett has certainly dropped in people's minds, but we can't forget what kind of player he is. He is a big posession WR that excels in the red zone. He ran a 4.6 in his 40 and that hurts, but Colston ran a 4.55 last year but managed to have a pretty good rookie season.
I do appreciate the strong opinion though. You come right out and say who you think is going to be a bust and then you own up to it if time proves you wrong.