TUFL Rookie Mock Draft v. 2.0

Here is version 2.0 of the TUFL mock draft. I have added a couple of sections to each pick. First is my pick, as in what I would do in a particular situation as opposed to what I think is going to happen (where it differs). Second, is the previous pick from v. 1.0 , (again only if there is a difference between the two) and the reason for the change in my thinking. To see the no comments version of both drafts, and a list of "My picks" click here.

1. Matt: A. Peterson RB Oklahoma

The top 3 of this draft are fairly set in stone (A. Peterson, M. Lynch and Cal. Johnson). The only question is what order do those 3 guys go in. I was tempted to have Matt take Cal. Johnson, because he already has some youth at RB with C. Benson and F. Gore, however, his depth at this position is shaky. Even if he hangs onto E. James, he is expensive, and will almost definitely not be around after this year. Taking Peterson, might free him up to drop James and have more cap room for the Free Agency auction. Plus, despite the fact that Matt is weak and old at the starting WR spot, he does have some youth there with at least some prospects of getting better, in Ma. Clayton, M. Jenkins, H. Baskett, Si. Moss, C. Jackson. Admittedly outside of Clayton, the outlook for these prospects does not compare at all to Cal. Johnson, however, the sheer volume of young guys gives him a decent chance of having a couple of them work out. (My Pick: M. Lynch I think that Lynch will end up in a situation where he is the undisputed starter and probably on a better team with a better offensive line. Plus, Lynch is a more complete back so, even if the team is behind, he will be involved in the passing game, which has helped mediocre backs like L. Jordan and D. Davis to have good seasons in the past.)

2. Peter: M. Lynch RB California

This seems like a potential trade situation here. Peter's big needs QB and TE are horrible value at this point in the draft, and while Lynch and Cal. Johnson would be nice additions, they would just add to already stacked positions for Peter. W. Parker and T. Henry make a great 1, 2 punch at RB, with T. Jones a solid backup. Peter's WR depth is probably top 3 in the league, and outside of D. Mason, there is no one glaringly old in the bunch. If Peter wants to compete this year, look for him to trade down and try to pick up G. Olsen later in the draft. If he is looking to build to the future, having a guy like M. Lynch around as a cheaper option than T. Henry (after he breaks out this year), will help immensely in that endeavor. This is a can't lose situation for Peter. (My pick: A. Peterson, being the best RB left after M. Lynch goes off the board. Peterson will be splitting carries with J. Lewis for one year, plus I don't like Crennel's offense much in Cleveland. This team will be behind and passing to catch up, so at least in year 1 don't expect much from Peterson, and by year 2 they may be breaking in a new coach in Cleveland, which could lead to them regressing for another year or 2. Bad situation if Peterson ends up in Cleveland, which is a common projection right now.)

3. Fauble: Cal. Johnson WR Georgia Tech

Like Peter I'm already stacked at the RB and WR positions, so any pick made here probably won't have an immediate impact. As such, I won't reach for anyone beyond these top 3 guys, and picking 3rd, look for me to get the leftover. In this scenario that is Cal. Johnson. Not a bad guy to get "stuck" with. The only way I see myself going after someone other than these 3 is if something flukey happens like the Colts drafting J. Addai last year. Although, I'm having a hard time imagining what the equivalent might be this year. An added bonus of getting Cal. Johnson in particular is knowing just how coveted he is around the league, and he might make a great trading chip come trade deadline time.

4. Bones: M. Bush RB Louisville

I strongly considered having Bones go a different direction here, but his RB situation is so old and tenuous with W. Dunn and F. Taylor as his current starters, and no backups worth mentioning, that to go any direction other than RB would almost seem non-sensical. Depending on how far Bush drops due to his most recent surgery, Bones could go for the highest taken 2nd round RB (if there even is one) if its not Bush. K. Irons and A. Pittman seem like the most likely possibilities at this point. In Bones' situation I would take Bush even if he drops to the late 3rd round. The kid was going to be a 1st round pick, if he had come out after his Junior season, and I have no reason to believe that he won't come back full strength. This could be the kind of investment that could have been made on W. McGahee when he came out, although all indications are that Bush will be ready to play his rookie year. The biggest concern will be the RBs on the depth chart in front of Bush's new team. If they are on the younger side, this situation should be shied away from. However, if he were to end up on a team like the NYJ that would give him a great opportunity to take over soon, as T. Jones would be turning 30 as Bush starts his 2nd season.

5. Veen: T. Ginn Jr. WR Ohio State

With only 1 WR currently signed for the upcoming year, any position but WR would be a huge surprise here, especially since the value is there at this point in the draft. Veen will probably get his choice of the non-Cal. Johnson WRs.

6. Seth: R. Meachem WR Tennessee

At this point in the draft, QBs (Quinn and Russell) and TE (G. Olsen) will start to be considered. However, Seth is already 3 deep at TE, and even though he will probably have to replace Palmer due to his huge contract sometime soon, he already has P. Rivers and Campbell "developing" behind him, so no need to grab Quinn or Russell at this point. Seth needs to either go WR or RB with this pick, as his depth at both positions is okay this year, but going forward could be shaky as he needs to deal with his bloated cap position. Not sure if the value is quite there yet to reach for the 2nd round RBs, although it is definitely a strong consideration at this point. (Previous pick: D. Bowe Bowe's position seems to be slipping in the mock drafts, while Meachem's is moving up. Meachem will probably be the 3rd WR off the board.)

7. Hanson: A. Pittman RB Ohio State

Hanson seems to be in a position to take the player with the most value regardless of position. He is a little weak depth wise at RB and TE, though and Pittman as possibly the 3rd RB taken in the draft could be the most valuable player available. With 3 WRs already taken (possibly representing all of the 1st round WRs), and the young talent Hanson already has at that position (S. Holmes and V. Jackson) I would not expect him to go WR (at this point), and at QB he is stacked with a good starter and two above average young cheap backups already, so that is unlikely as well. (Previous pick: G. Olsen I think G. Olsen makes more sense for his team, but since Hanson has a pick at #9 as well, and virtually no possibility of Olsen being taken by Veen (who has A. Gates), there is no reason to take Olsen in the 7 spot. Instead he will probably take a player who might not slip past Veen at #8.)

8. Veen: D. Bowe WR LSU

With 2 WRs in the first round, Veen can now start a complete fantasy squad including 3 WRs. A. Pittman would have been a solid selection, with Veen being weak at both RB and WR, but with Pittman going one pick in advance, taking another WR is not a bad option for this team. (Previous Pick: D. Jarrett, let the comparisons to Mike Williams begin, as his slow 40 time could knock him all the way to the 2nd round of the NFL draft.)

9. Hanson: A. Gonzalez WR Ohio State

This pick happens if A. Gonzalez goes to the Colts as there is some buzz about that possibility. Hanson is a huge Colts fan and could not pass up the opportunity to grab the next great Indy WR. (Previous Pick: R. Meachem No longer an option as Meachem's stock is rising) (My Pick: G. Olsen T. Gonzalez can definitely be relied upon next year, but he is also getting older and will need to be replaced. B. Troupe has had multiple chances to step up, and has failed to do so. Sooner or later Josh will need to find his TE of the future. I think G. Olsen fills that need. Plus, at WR while his stars are older, he already has a collection of 5 young guys with medium to good potential for being quality fantasy starters in the future, so less of a need there. I think that Hanson still thinks that someday B. Troupe might live up to his potential. Despite me being quite down on Troupe as ever being worthy of being a fantasy starter, I think Hanson views Troupe as the TE of the future for his team, and as such has no need for G. Olsen.

10. Chu: D. Jarrett WR USC

With 2 slow, disappointing former USC stars already on board (Mike Williams and LenDale White), Chu is going to have to prove to me that he can have the discipline to stay away from these guys, before I can keep from projecting him to go after the guys. (My pick: B. Quinn Chu may be okay at QB next year with 3 probably starters, but none of the group seems to even have the potential to become a top guy. Time to stock the shelves with a top prospect. I think Quinn is a far better NFL prospect than Russell, and if Russell ends up on the Raiders, the situation will be far and away a better situation, regardless of where Quinn ends up. Quinn won't contribute right away, but would offer hope at the QB position in the future for Chu.)

TUFL Rookie Mock Draft

1. Matt: A. Peterson RB Oklahoma

The top 3 of this draft are fairly set in stone (A. Peterson, M. Lynch and Cal. Johnson). The only question is what order do those 3 guys go in. I was tempted to have Matt take Cal. Johnson, because he already has some youth at RB with C. Benson and F. Gore, however, his depth at this position is shaky. Even if he hangs onto E. James, he is expensive, and will almost definitely not be around after this year. Taking Peterson, might free him up to drop James and have more cap room for the Free Agency auction. Plus, despite the fact that Matt is weak and old at the starting WR spot, he does have some youth there with at least some prospects of getting better, in Ma. Clayton, M. Jenkins, H. Baskett, Si. Moss, C. Jackson. Admittedly outside of Clayton, the outlook for these prospects does not compare at all to Cal. Johnson, however, the sheer volume of young guys gives him a decent chance of having a couple of them work out.

2. Peter: M. Lynch RB California

This seems like a potential trade situation here. Peter's big needs QB and TE are horrible value at this point in the draft, and while Lynch and Cal. Johnson would be nice additions, they would just add to already stacked positions for Peter. W. Parker and T. Henry make a great 1, 2 punch at RB, with T. Jones a solid backup. Peter's WR depth is probably top 3 in the league, and outside of D. Mason, there is no one glaringly old in the bunch. If Peter wants to compete this year, look for him to trade down and try to pick up G. Olsen later in the draft. If he is looking to build to the future, having a guy like M. Lynch around as a cheaper option than T. Henry (after he breaks out this year), will help immensely in that endeavor. This is a can't lose situation for Peter.

3. Fauble: Cal. Johnson WR Georgia Tech

Like Peter I'm already stacked at the RB and WR positions, so any pick made here probably won't have an immediate impact. As such, I won't reach for anyone beyond these top 3 guys, and picking 3rd, look for me to get the leftover. In this scenario that is Cal. Johnson. Not a bad guy to get "stuck" with.

4. Bones: M. Bush RB Louisville

This pick is contingent on Bush being drafted somewhere in the 2nd round. If he falls to the 3rd, which is a distinct possibility with the news of a new surgery, I think Bones will go WR here. There is a possibility he may lean that way anyway, but with W. Dunn and F. Taylor as his current starters, he is desperate to pick up a young RB, and Bush will be the only option available.

5. Veen: T. Ginn Jr. WR Ohio State

With only 1 WR currently signed for the upcoming year, any position but WR would be a huge surprise here, especially since the value is there at this point in the draft.

6. Seth: D. Bowe WR LSU

At this point in the draft QBs and G. Olsen will start to be considered along with the best available WR. However, Seth is already 3 deep at TE, and even though he will probably have to replace Palmer due to his huge contract sometime soon, he already has P. Rivers and Campbell "developing" behind him, so no need to grab Quinn or Russell at this point.

7. Hanson: G. Olsen TE Miami

Hanson definitely doesn't need a young QB with V. Young and J. Cutler backing up D. Brees. However, I think TE is a distinct possibility. T. Gonzalez can definitely be relied upon next year, but he is also getting older and will need to be replaced. B. Troupe has had multiple chances to step up, and has failed to do so. Sooner or later Josh will need to find his TE of the future. I think G. Olsen fills that need. Plus, at WR while his stars are older, he already has a collection of 5 young guys with medium to good potential for being quality fantasy starters in the future, so less of a need there.

8. Veen: D. Jarrett WR USC

With 2 WRs in the first round, Paul can now start a complete fantasy squad including 3 WRs.

9. Hanson: R. Meacham WR Tennessee

The last WR I have going in the 1st round. Having already filled his need at TE, Hanson can take the best value player remaining. I think he goes WR over QB.

10. Chu: B. Quinn QB Notre Dame

With all the 1st round WRs gone, and no RBs left in the first 2 rounds, as well as the best TE prospect off the board, its time for the QBs to go. I think if Russell ends up in the horrible Oakland situation, that B. Quinn will be the first QB to go, as he will definitely be in a better situation for his development.