NFL Mock Draft - 4/27/07

Alright, here is my final version of a Mock Draft. Trades are included with guidelines for what I think the compensation that will be given.

1. Oakland Raiders: JaMarcus Russell, QB LSU
Oakland desperately needs a signal caller. Russell possesses all the tools to be great. I don’t know how much of a chance he’ll have to show it behind that offensive line though.

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers* from Detroit: Calvin Johnson, WR Georgia Tech
(compensation for the pick: Detroit receives the 64th and 68th overall picks)
If reports are true that Detroit wants Gaines Adams then they would be fools not to trade out of this pick for whatever they can get. Tampa could sit tight and hope that Johnson falls to them at #4. However, I think they’ll want to be sure they get him at #2 with others team showing interest in trading up for Johnson.

3. Cleveland Browns: Joe Thomas, OT Wisconsin
Most people think that Cleveland will take either Quinn or Peterson here. I think Romeo Crennel and Phil Savage understand the need to control the line of scrimmage. And Cleveland already has 2 developmental QBs with Frye and Anderson. It makes more sense to get a veteran QB than to draft another young guy.

4. Detroit Lions* from Tampa Bay: Gaines Adams, DE Clemson
All reports from Detroit are that the Lions want Adams. Generally around this time I would write off any rumors as a smokescreen. However, knowing that Matt Millen is running the show I would not be surprised if this is true.

5. Arizona Cardinals: Adrian Peterson, RB Oklahoma
The Cardinals have to be hoping for Joe Thomas to make it this far. I do not foresee that happening. So, Arizona can look to trade down to a team that wants a player (Quinn, Peterson) or they can take the highest player on their board (Peterson, Brown, Landry). I see them joining the masses in the NFL and going to the 2 running back system. James is 1 year into a 4 year deal – He and Peterson can split time for 1 year, then Arizona could dump James and his monster contract and hand Peterson the full load in 2008.

6. Miami Dolphins* from Washington: Brady Quinn, QB Notre Dame
(Compensation for the pick: Washington receives Miami’s 3rd round pick)
If there is any wisdom in Daniel Snyder then he will trade down. They need extra picks with so many holes on their team - Washington was 27th in points given up, 31st in total defense, 27th against the run, 23rd against the pass. They had fewer sacks than any other team, fewest interceptions, and only had one more fumble than the Raiders defense to keep them from finishing last in that category too. Miami moves ahead of Minnesota to snag Quinn, who they have been enamored with for a long time.

7. Atlanta Falcons* from Minnesota Vikings: LaRon Landry, S LSU
(Compensation for the pick: Minnesota receives Miami’s 5th round pick)
There isn’t much left on the board for Minnesota. Johnson, Peterson and the 2 QBs might be the only players that really interested them. Landry is clearly the best player on the board, but Minnesota has a greater need at CB. If pressed to make a selection here I think Minnesota would take Landry – but I also think they would gladly take an extra pick to move on spot down. Atlanta gets the player they covet without giving up too much and now they can focus their 2 second round picks on the offensive and defensive line (where there is more depth in round than there is at safety in round 2).

8. Minnesota Vikings* from Atlanta: Leon Hall, CB Michigan
Hall is the top-rated corner according to most people around the league. Minnesota has a bigger need at WR, but the value just isn’t there. They’ll be able to address that need early in round 2.

9. Washington Redskins* from Miami: Amobi Okoye, DT Louisville
Washington is bad everywhere on defense. The logical thing to do is to take the best defensive player regardless of position. Okoye is the best left – now we’ll just wait and see if owner Daniel Snyder can be logical.

10. Houston Texans: Levi Brown, OT Penn State
Houston catches a big break here having the 2nd best offensive lineman fall to them. 3 teams ahead of Houston will take a long look at Brown (Arizona, Atlanta, and Miami). If all 3 of these teams decide to pass, then Houston should waste no time getting their draft card to the podium.

11. San Francisco 49ers: Adam Carriker, DE Nebraska
I think this pick will come down to 2 players – either Carriker or Patrick Willis. In the end, I say Carriker gets the nod because of the important role he’ll play in the 3-4 defense of Mike Nolan.

12. Buffalo Bills: Patrick Willis, LB Mississippi
After this off-season Buffalo has some major holes to fill. On the bright side, when their pick comes up there should be no problem finding and excellent player to fill one of those needs. Willis would be a perfect replacement for departed linebacker, London Fletcher.

13. St. Louis Rams: Jamaal Anderson, DE Arkansas
St. Louis was terrible at stopping the run last year. They’ve got to get better across the board on the defensive line. Knowing that, there are only 2 players that make sense at the #13 pick – Anderson or Alan Branch. Branch has been falling for a month now and we do not know when it will stop.

14. Carolina Panthers: Reggie Nelson, S Florida Alan Branch, DT Michigan
Carolina might be interested in Branch if they can move Kris Jenkins before or during the draft. If not then I see them grabbing Reggie Nelson to fill a void in their defense.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers: Darrelle Revis, CB Pittsburgh
I expect new, defensive-minded Head Coach, Mike Tomlin to use early picks getting players on defense that he is comfortable with. Last season the Steelers biggest weakness on defense was their secondary play. And while it remains to be seen whether Pittsburgh will play the 4-3 or 3-4, both schemes call for talented corners. A bonus here is that Revis is a local product (played at the University of Pittsburgh) and fans always like to see familiar names be called on draft day.

16. Green Bay Packers: Greg Olsen, TE Miami
Green Bay needs a RB for sure – but I do not think Marshawn Lynch is the answer, at least not in round 1. Lynch has character concerns which will drop him in the draft thanks to the hard line taken on conduct issues by new Commissioner Roger Goodell. Olsen is head and shoulders about the rest of the TE class and fills and immediate need for Green Bay.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jarvis Moss, DE Florida
Jacksonville’s biggest need might be at WR, but they can’t afford to use another high pick on a pass catcher. Moss will improve the pass rush for the Jaguars and Moss will be comfortable playing pro ball near his old college stomping grounds.

18. Cincinnati Bengals: Alan Branch, DT Michigan
Cincinnati has a big need at defensive tackle and Branch is a top 10 talent that has dropped the last month because of poor workouts and concerns about his effort throughout games. He is a great value here for Cincinnati.

19. Tennessee Titans: Ted Ginn Jr., WR Ohio State
Marshawn Lynch is available, but character concerns will keep Tennessee away. Cornerback is a possibility but I think Ted Ginn Jr. is too much to pass up. His return prowess is an added bonus – and Tennessee will need someone to fill Adam Jones’ shoes in that regard.

20. New York Giants: Paul Posluszny, LB Penn State
Joe Staley could be the selection here with New York looking to replace Luke Petigout. But New York is looking for a linebacker and Posluszny is an excellent one from nearby Penn State.

21. Denver Broncos: Joe Staley OT, Central Michigan
I think the Broncos would love to find a pass-rusher like Jarvis Moss at this spot, but I don’t think he’ll make it to them. Staley has been moving up the draft board steadily the last month. Denver could add him and make him the anchor to their line and Jay Cutler’s best friend for seasons to come.

22. Dallas Cowboys: Robert Meacham, WR Tennessee
Dallas had a need to get young at WR. Starters Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn are both 33 and have many, many miles on the odometer. Local products in the secondary like Aaron Ross and Michal Griffin from Texas could be intriguing though.

23. Kansas City Chiefs: Dwayne Bowe, WR LSU
Offensive lineman Willie Road and Will Shields have left in consecutive years now. Joe Staley would be an excellent pick if available – but it’s hard to believe he’ll make it past both the Giants and Broncos. The Chiefs still have a big hole to fill at WR, and Bowe is full of value at the 23rd pick.

24. New England Patriots: Chris Houston, CB Arkansas
Asante Samuel has yet to negotiate a new deal or sign the franchise tender. I do not expect him to be with New England for more than one more year. That means getting a player to develop behind him is paramount.

25. New York Jets: Anthony Spencer, DE/OLB Purdue
Pretty straightforward here – Spencer is one of the best available players and he fits a need and role for the Jets.

26. Philadelphia: Aaron Ross, S Texas
Philadelphia needs to get younger and deeper in their secondary. They may have their choice between 2 stars from the University of Texas (Ross and Michael Griffin). Ross is slated slightly higher and gets the nod here.

27. New Orleans Saints: Lawrence Timmons, LB Florida State
New Orleans fills a big hole at CB when they signed restricted free agent, Jason David, away from the Colts. Timmons has had an up and down ride in the draft stock market. Another option for the Saints and feel good story would be to draft Dwayne Bowe from LSU if he falls to this point.

28. New England Patriots: Jon Beason, LB Miami
It is very difficult to predict what the Patriots will do. I think their needs come at linebacker and secondary. With the 28th there are 2 star Hurricanes available (Beason and safety Brandon Meriweather). Meriweather might still carry some concerns after beating and opposing player with his helmet during a brawl last season. And after already addressing their secondary with their first pick, linebacker would seem to make more sense here.

29. Baltimore Ravens: Marcus McCauley, CB Fresno State
Offensive tackle is a big need source here with RT Tony Pashos gone and left tackle Jonathan Ogden considering retirement. Joe Staley might have been available here 3 weeks ago, but no longer. Baltimore should be able to fill that need later and grabbing a talented corner like McCauley makes more sense in this situation.

30. San Diego Chargers: Brandon Meriweather, S Miami
Griffin and Meriweather are the top safeties left on the board. Meriweather is more talented but comes with more baggage. I expect talent to trump character on this one.

31. Chicago Bears: Ben Grubbs, G Auburn
Grubbs is talented enough to be an early first round pick, but the fact that he plays guard drops him down the list. NFL teams just do not value the guard position highly, but make no mistake this young man will be an excellent football player. Chicago should find no trouble finding a spot for him to play for 10-12 years.

32. Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Gonzalez, WR Ohio State
Bill Polian and Tony Dungy feel like they can find players to fit their needs at other positions later in the draft. However, finding a WR that has the quickness, hands, and route running ability later in the draft is less likely. Gonzalez is a polished WR that can play in the slot for the Colts who use 3 wide receivers regularly. The Colts may look to trade down into the middle of round 2 and get Gonzalez, Steve Smith, or Craig Davis at that point if the option presents itself.

NFL Mock Draft 4/12/2007

Well, the NFL Draft is fast approaching. Only a few short weeks and we'll be able to waste away a perfectly good Saturday watching Chris Berman break down nicknames for the newest members of the NFL. What follows is another installation of my projection of first round selections in the 2007 NFL Draft. Included are a few trades that I think we might see on draft day. Have a read and feel free to leave your comments afterwards.


1. Oakland Raiders: JaMarcus Russell, QB LSU
I think Oakland owner, Al Davis is desperate to find a way where he can pick Calvin Johnson instead of a quarterback. However, things do not look promising on that front, and if they can’t find an adequate QB before the draft then the Raiders have to take QB with their first pick and Russell seems to be a better fit than Quinn. Although, I still hold the notion that Oakland should contact Jacksonville about Byron Leftwich in order to make it possible to grab Calvin Johnson, the best player in the draft.

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers* from Detroit: Calvin Johnson, WR Georgia Tech (compensation for the pick: Tampa’s second round pick acquired from Indy and Tampa’s 3rd round pick, giving Detroit the 64th and 68th overall picks)
I firmly believe that the Lions will (and should) move out of this pick. Jon Gruden gushes over Calvin Johnson. While Tampa could possibly wait and see Johnson fall to them, I think they’ll get anxious and make a draft day deal with Detroit after Oakland has turned in their draft card to the commissioner with Russell’s name written down.

3. Cleveland Browns: Joe Thomas, OT Wisconsin
Cleveland has plenty of options at the #3 spot. They could take Brady Quinn, an Ohio native. They could grab Adrian Peterson to be Jamal Lewis’ caddy for a year. Or they could grab the best offensive lineman in the draft, in Joe Thomas. Last year the Browns suffered a rash of injuries on the offensive lineman and they would do well to grab Thomas as an anchor for the group. Quality RBs are easier to find (although some think Peterson may be a great one) and picking a QB this early is a risky business – too risky for an already on thin ice coach, Romeo Crennel.

4. Detroit Lions* from Tampa Bay: Brady Quinn, QB Notre Dame
I love the move down by Detroit to #4. They can acquire extra picks (even if not enough to make the trade ‘even’ based on the NFL draft chart). Tampa Bay would receive 2,600 points in value while Detroit would receive 2,320 value points. However, Detroit is still going to end up with either Quinn, J. Thomas, or G. Adams – all of which they are interested. And not only do they get extra picks, but they also will not have to give their top pick as large of a contract since NFL rookie contracts are somewhat slotted based on where they are drafted.

5. Arizona Cardinals: Gaines Adams, DE Clemson
Arizona must be hoping that Detroit covets Quinn or Adams and that Cleveland makes Peterson their pick, so that Arizona could have a shot at OT Joe Thomas. However, I do not see that happening and expect Arizona to end up with the top pass rusher out of Clemson. Certainly not a bad pick for Arizona, but oh what things could be if they could get their offensive line help. Of course they could choose to take OT Levi Brown, but I think the value here is with Adams. Maybe Arizona will look to trade down and then pick Levi Brown.

6. Buffalo Bills* from Washington: Adrian Peterson, RB Oklahoma
(Compensation for the pick: Washington receives Buffalo’s 3rd and 4th round picks)
Washington, being without picks in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round, should look to trade down early in the draft. Although knowing Daniel Snyder maybe we’ll see them give up all their picks in the 2008 draft to move up to draft Calvin Johnson. I don’t think there is anyone at #6 that Washington must have, so swapping with Buffalo would be prudent. Buffalo needs a workhorse back after parting with Willis McGahee and they have an extra 3rd pick this year from Baltimore that allows them the freedom to move up in the draft.

7. Minnesota Vikings: LaRon Landry, S LSU
Minnesota runs the ball well is effective in stopping the run well but have trouble generating a pass rush. They could be interested in one of the top 2 defensive ends but after spending first round picks the last 2 of the last 3 years on DEs (Kenechi Udeze and Erasmus James) I think that they will be hesitant to do so again. They have a need for a WR, but Calvin Johnson is the only WR that warrants getting drafted in this spot. Landry is an impact player that would immediately upgrade their secondary. He might not be able to crack the starting lineup in year one with Minnesota, but his versatility would allow for him to play in the nickel defense and the Vikings could groom him to start in 2008.

8. Atlanta Falcons: Jamaal Anderson, DE Arkansas
The Matt Schaub deals moves Atlanta into the #8 spot. My feeling is that Rich McKay is hoping to see Landry be available at this spot. But I don’t see him slipping past Washington (if they keep their pick) and Minnesota. If Landry is gone, then I think the Falcons will be picking from one of 2 players: either grab Levi Brown and continue the steps to make their O-line bigger or take the 2nd best DE in the group to replace the departed Patrick Kerney. My money is on them taking Anderson in hopes that he can perform at a high level like the original ‘dirty bird’ running back Jamal Anderson.

9. Miami Dolphins: Levi Brown, OT Texas
The Dolphins have a lot invested in Daunte Culpepper. If Culpepper is going to lead this team then they need some big men in front of him to pass protect. Culpepper was sacked 21 times in just 4 games in 2006. Although, Keith Traylor will be 38 this season, so DTs Alan Branch or Amobi Okoye could be appealing to Miami. Also, after losing Wes Welker to New England the Dolphins might be interested in grabbing a player like Ted Ginn that could fill Welker’s role as a WR / return man.

10. Houston Texans: Leon Hall, CB Michigan
Houston’s trade with Atlanta may have ruined their chances of getting OT Levi Brown. However, Houston’s line saw improvement in pass protection last year. David Carr was sacked more than any other QB in 2004 and 2005. In 2006, 7 Quarterbacks were sacked more than Carr. One of Houston’s other weaknesses was their inability to create turnovers. The Texans had the 3rd fewest interceptions in 2006. Hall is the cornerback that is most ready to contribute and he could battle for a starting gig opposite of Dunta Robinson.

11. San Francisco 49ers: Adam Carriker, DE Nebraska
Reports are that the 49ers fell in love with Carriker at the Senior Bowl. Carriker is the hybrid type player that would fit ideally in the 3-4 defensive scheme that Mike Nolan is forming in San Francisco.

12. Washington Redskins* from Buffalo: Amobi Okoye, DT Louisville
Washington has a leaky defense, and it’s leaky everywhere. I expect them to draft the best defensive players regardless of position when they turn in their card to Roger Goodell. In 2006 Washington was 27th in points given up, 31st in total defense, 27th against the run, 23rd against the pass. They had fewer sacks than any other team, fewest interceptions, and only had one more fumble than the Raiders defense to keep them from finishing last in that category too. Okoye is one the fast risers in the draft and evaluators love that he is only 19 years old. Daniel Snyder is probably giddy over the thought of being able to give this youngster 3 monster contacts over the length of his career.

13. St. Louis Rams: Patrick Willis, LB Mississippi
The only team worse in the NFL at stopping the run in 2006 than the Indianapolis Colts was the St. Louis Rams. St. Louis might be interested in DT Alan Branch, but after 2003 first round pick Jimmy Kennedy proved to be a bust, I think Willis is the safer pick here. Willis should be ready to fit into the starting lineup immediately and provide run support for the porous defense.

14. Carolina Panthers: Alan Branch, DT Michigan
Rumors are starting stir that Kris Jenkins may be on his way out of Carolina. If that is the case then getting Branch to fill in immediately makes sense. Branch was once a sure-fire first round pick, but poor workouts at the combine and Michigan’s pro day has seen his value drop.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers: Darrelle Revis, CB Pittsburgh
I expect new, defensive-minded Head Coach, Mike Tomlin to use early picks getting players on defense that he is comfortable with. Last season the Steelers biggest weakness on defense was their secondary play. And while it remains to be seen whether Pittsburgh will play the 4-3 or 3-4, both schemes call for talented corners. A bonus here is that Revis is a local product (played at the University of Pittsburgh) and fans always like to see familiar names be called on draft day.

16. Green Bay Packers: Greg Olsen, TE Miami
Many mock drafts project Cal running back Marshawn Lynch in this spot, and I was in that camp until recently. Lynch’s stock is slipping and NFL teams are recognizing that they are able to find capable players later in the draft and in free agency. And my good friend, The Commish, likes to remind me that it is typical for RBs to slide on draft day. I think the Packers will reach out and grab another weapon to appease their franchise QB who should be tutoring a young QB instead of pretending like he is one.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars: Reggie Nelson, S Florida
The Jaguars aren’t the only team interested in the talented safety from the National Champions, so don’t be surprised if some team makes a move to get ahead of Jacksonville in round 1. If Nelson is still available at #17 I fully expect the Jaguars to grab him and never look back. Nelson can replace Deon Grant, and again fans will be happy to see a familiar face on their NFL franchise (Nelson was making plays regularly on Saturdays last fall about 70 miles away from Jacksonville).

18. Cincinnati Bengals: Lawrence Timmons, LB Florida State
The Bengals have spent recent first day draft picks on linebackers out of the University of Georgia. Odell Thurman has been great when on the field, which is less each year because of off-the-field incidences. (Thurman was suspended 4 games last year for violating the league’s substance abuse policy). David Pollack missed the entire 2006 season with a broken neck and may never see the playing field again. Timmons performed well at the combine and his pro day and does not come into the league with character problems or baggage – and that is something that Cincinnati must make a priority.

19. Tennessee Titans: Robert Meacham, WR Tennessee
Tennessee has filled on hole on their team by adding CB Nick Harper in free agency, but now that Adam Jones has been suspended for a year, they could be looking for more help at that position. Tennessee has lost top WR Drew Bennett to the Rams and adding local product Robert Meacham is a possibility. The Titans could also be looking for a RB to pair with LenDale White, so don’t be surprised to see them pull the trigger on Marshawn Lynch if Green Bay passes. However, with the character concerns surrounding Lynch and their experience with Jones, I think they’ll pass on any who is questionable with their first round pick.

20. New York Giants: Paul Posluszny, LB Penn State
New York was unable to add LB Al Wilson from Denver because of a failed physical, so they would very well look to grab the best linebacker in the NCAA last year. Posluszny won’t blow you out of the water with his workout numbers, but he is a young man that is able to make plays on the football field.

21. Denver Broncos: Jarvis Moss, DE Florida
The Broncos have had a busy off-season filling up holes as quickly as they were able to. One hole that remains is a pass rushing DE, after the Broncos failed to lure Patrick Kerney to Denver. Moss and Anthony Spencer are the best pass rushers left on the board if they choose to go that route. They could also take a look at fast rising OT Joe Staley, but with Denver still using the zone blocking scheme I don’t expect them to use an early pick on an offensive lineman.

22. Dallas Cowboys: Ted Ginn Jr., WR Ohio State
The defensive secondary was Dallas’ biggest weaknesses in 2006. The Dallas defense ranked 24th among all teams against the pass. They were able to sign safety, Ken Hamlin, from Seattle. That makes me think that they will use this pick to either grab a young corner like Aaron Ross or take a WR. At the start of the 2007 season both starting wide receivers for Dallas (Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn) will be 33 years old. Getting a player like Ginn who can develop behind two of the best in the league is prudent.

23. Kansas City Chiefs: Dwayne Bowe, WR LSU
Kansas City’s offensive line is beginning to show their age, which is why I expect them to take a long look at Joe Staley if he is still around. However, I do not think that they will be able to overlook their glaring need at WR, especially with quality players such as Bowe, Dwayne Jarrett, and co. available.

24. New England Patriots: Chris Houston, CB Arkansas
New England has had a very busy off-season. They have improved at WR (Stallworth and Welker) and LB (A. Thomas). And they are rumored to be interested in adding inside linebacker Ed Hartwell. The biggest weakness for the Patriots is in the secondary. Franchised CB Asante Samuel has not reached and accord on a long-term deal and could even demand a trade before the season begins or threaten with a holdout. The longer this situation continues to linger the greater the chance the Samuel will not be around after the 2007. Houston impressed scouts with his sub 4.4, 40 time and should see his name called before round 1 is complete.

25. New York Jets: Anthony Spencer, DE/OLB Purdue
New York has still yet to replace their top pass rusher of 2 years ago when they traded John Abraham to Atlanta. Spencer is a quality defender that fits into the Jets 3-4 scheme and can improve the teams pass rush.

26. Philadelphia Eagles: Michael Griffin, S Texas
Philadelphia is one of the top organizations in the NFL; they make smart, shrewd decisions regarding personnel. Therefore, they are in excellent shape heading into 2007 and can do a number of things with their initial pick. Safety is a position where youth could be pursued for Philly, so I’ll saddle them with Griffin from Texas.

27. New Orleans Saints: Aaron Ross, CB Texas
Ross comes off the board right after his fellow secondary mate from Texas. New Orleans was only able to generate 11 interceptions last year and Fred Thomas has clearly lost a step. Thomas is 33 and fellow starter Mike McKenzie is 31. The Saints do not have much talent behind these 2 starters and need to begin developing some. Ross is the best cornerback available in the draft and makes complete sense for New Orleans in this spot.

28. New England Patriots: Brandon Meriweather, S Miami
To be honest I have no idea what New England will do in the draft. I tried to get some insight from The Commish (a noted Pats fan), but he did not have much of a clue either. What I do know is that their secondary is thin and was probably their biggest weakness in 2007. Thus, I have them selecting 2 secondary players with their first round picks. However, Scott Pioli could very well draft a player that I have never heard of that will be starting in the Pro Bowl in 2009.

29. Baltimore Ravens: Joe Staley OT, Central Michigan
Starting Right Tackle Tony Pashos has bolted for Jacksonville. Staley could move into the lineup and replace him and eventually be ready to move to the left side to replace Jonathan Ogden (entering his 12th season), who may retire before the 2007 season begins. Staley is one of the players that has been rising in recent weeks thanks to good workouts. So, he could see his name go off the board earlier than this since quality and quantity are both good things to have on your offensive line. However, if he makes is to pick 29 then expect Baltimore to place their hat on his head.

30. San Diego Chargers: Dwayne Jarrett, WR USC
One month ago I would have been shocked to see Jarrett as the 5th WR drafted, but that is what a slow 40 time will do to you. (Jarrett ran his 40 time in the 4.6 range). Nonetheless, Jarrett was able to get open and make plays against Division I opponents on a regular basis at USC. San Diego is looking for someone to insert opposite of Vincent Jackson now that Keenan McCardell is on his way out. I think San Diego will make the pick to keep Jarrett on the West Coast for a few more years.

31. Chicago Bears: Tony Ugoh, OT Arkansas
This has not been a great off-season for the NFC champs. Thomas Jones was sent packing to New York for little compensation. Franchised linebacker Lance Briggs is threatening a holdout and is seeking a trade. But on the bright side Bears fans – you still play in the NFC North, which means next year you’ll get to play Detroit, Minnesota, and Green Bay twice each. On to the draft…Chicago could use another body on the offensive line and you can take your pick who you think the next best is after Staley is gone. Ugoh, Justin Blalock, Ben Grubbs.

32. Indianapolis Colts: Steve Smith, WR USC
I never thought that Steve Smith would be drafted this close to teammate Dwayne Jarrett, but with Jarrett’s slow 40 time and Smith’s quick one (4.4 seconds) you get one falling star and another rising one. Since Tony Dungy has been the coach in Indy they have yet to use a first round pick on a linebacker. In the Tampa 2 defense Dungy can find “system” linebackers that you do not need to spend a high pick on. Losing CB Nick Harper hurts as well, but Indy has been investing first day picks on defensive backs for several years now. I expect this pick to come down to either WR or DT. Justin Harrell or Tank Tyler might prove to be appealing as bandages to help heal their poor run defense. However, my thought is that they’ll grab a WR. They have lost #3 WR Brandon Stokely and #4 WR Aaron Morehead looks like he might be on his way to Minnesota. That means Indy will be looking for a polished WR that can play in the slot in 3 wide receiver sets. Steve Smith is that polished WR that could contribute immediately to another championship run.

If I were GM of every team....

here is what the top 10 picks of the draft would look like. (Thought I would take a different angle than most people who try to guess what notoriously kooky and deceiving GMs might do based on the quotes and general disinformation that is disseminated this time of year.)

If you're interested in a dynasty fantasy football rookie mock draft, check these out.

1. Oakland Raiders: Brady Quinn, QB Notre Dame

Plenty of people have Oakland taking Russell, although more recently, more are guessing Cal. Johnson. I think going WR would be a mistake. It is rare that a team wins the Super Bowl without a premier QB. (The only semi-recent team that comes to mind is the Baltimore Ravens with T. Dilfer) Teams only ever pick in the top 3 of the draft ever so often, and if there are QBs considered to be potential great QBs, you need to take a chance on these guys (even if there are notorious flameouts to look at in the past i.e. R. Leaf, J. Harrington and D. Carr) You don't ever think of a WR carrying a team to a championship, that's what the right QB will do. So, if Al Davis wants to win it all he needs to go QB (and I personally prefer Quinn to Russell), and if he wants to sell tickets, he should go ahead with Cal. Johnson.

2. Detroit Lions: JaMarcus Russell, QB LSU

Using the reasoning above, the Lions must take a QB. J. Kitna is just good enough to possibly get you too the playoffs, but he is not transcendent enough of a talent to carry this team to the ultimate prize. Time to take a chance on another QB, and hope for the best.

3. Cleveland Browns: Joe Thomas OT Wisconsin

A. Peterson is a popular pick here, but going RB fails to realize what is going on in the NFL currently. That is, that just about anyone can run the ball behind a good line (i.e. what the Denver Broncos prove to us) and even great talents cannot run the ball behind a bad line (i.e. Edge James going to Arizona). So, rather than waste the money and pick on a RB who you can probably find the basic equivalent of in Free Agency or in a later round of the draft, first shore up that line and make it possible for a RB to go somewhere with the ball. Gotta create the holes before anyone can run through them.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Calvin Johnson WR Georgia Tech

With no premier players at more important positions left, time to grab the best player in the draft in Calvin Johnson. He can't win games on his own, but he may be able to turn a mediocre QB into a good to great one (like Randy Moss did for Daunte Culpepper), and with the way that Tampa Bay is stocking QBs, you'd hope there's at least one mediocre QB in the bunch.

5. Arizona Cardinals: Levi Brown OT Penn State

Offensive line is a huge area of need for this team, and if they ever want to make any of those dollars that they are sending to Edge James worth it, they need to open up some holes for the guy. Brown did a great job run blocking at Penn State and should go a long way in helping out the Cardinals in that area.

6. Washington Redskins: Gaines Adams, DE Clemson

The way to build up a championship team (other than getting the right QB) is to dominate in the trenches. The Redskins already have a good offensive line, time to work on putting together a solid defensive front. Adams will be a huge step in the right direction.

7. Minnesota Vikings: Leon Hall, CB Michigan

Minnesota was great against the run last year, but perhaps that was because teams enjoyed passing against them so much. In fact that's exactly how New England game planned against them in week, where they only rushed 13 times the entire game with almost half of those coming in the 4th quarter after the game was well in hand. Hopefully Leon Hall can slow teams down enough through the air, so that teams have to consider trying to run against that tough run defense.

8. Atlanta Falcons: LaRon Landry, S LSU

Hanson's an Atlanta resident now, so I'll count on him for this one.
From Hanson's mock draft, "The Falcons biggest weakness last year might have been safety play. Chris Crocker seemingly got beat on every double move and Landry would immediately contribute to Atlanta with his speed and versatility."

9. Miami Dolphins: Amobi Okoye, DT Louisville

Keith Traylor (and the rest of the Dolphins defense for that matter) is aging at an alarming pace. Okoye brings in talent and youth (19 years young) to a defense in desperate need of both.

10. Houston Texans: Marshawn Lynch, RB LSU

Help is desperately needed on the offensive line, but neither Thomas or Brown made it this far. So, the next best thing is a RB who can catch some balls out in the flat and do something with them. A. Peterson is not the right fit here, since he is not a very good receiver out of the backfield and Lynch is the better blocker as well. Lynch's receiving and blocking abilities will help take some pressure off of Schaub, plus with Ahman Green already on board, and destined to get hurt in the first 2 weeks of the season you don't need Peterson to come in and follow up Green's injury by getting hurt himself before week 8.

I'm sure there will be some arguments with some of these selections, and I will be happy to hear them....let me know why you think I'm off my rocker, and just remember, I'm not trying to guess what teams will do, just saying what I think they should do.

NFL Mock Draft 3/22/2007

1. Oakland Raiders: JaMarcus Russell, QB LSU
There is plenty of talk about the Raiders getting interested in Calvin Johnson. But this team has to have a QB to build on. Andrew Walter isn’t the guy. I think they stick with Russell unless they can find someone to deal them a QB. My suggestion is to contact Oakland about acquiring Byron Leftwich. The Jaguars don’t know what they want to do at QB and if they move Leftwich for a draft pick then they can move forward with David Garrard as their QB. The Raiders would get a strong armed experienced QB that is still has plenty of youth, and then they could go after Calvin Johnson with that #1 pick.

2. Detroit Lions: Joe Thomas, OT Wisconsin
I firmly believe that the Lions will (and should) move out of this pick. There should be more than a few teams interested in moving up to get Joe Thomas, Calvin Johnson or Brady Quinn. The most likely scenario I see is Detroit moving down to #5 with Arizona. The one person Arizona needs in this draft is Joe Thomas and there is no way they are getting him at #5. Detroit can acquire extra picks by moving down to #5 and still grab either Quinn or Gaines Adams (and end up paying either less money then they would have to pay them if they were drafted #2)

3. Cleveland Browns: Adrian Peterson, RB Oklahoma
Jamal Lewis is on board, but just for one year. Sounds like the Browns are ready to use Peterson like New England and Indianapolis used Maroney and Addai in 2006. New England and Indianapolis are two pretty good organizations to emulate. If Thomas is still available then he could easily be the pick here. And the Browns could be tempted to take Brady Quinn but they are partially invested in Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Calvin Johnson, WR Georgia Tech
I think Tampa Bay would be thrilled if they could sit tight at #4 and still get Johnson. Everyone will be sweating in the war room waiting for this to happen, but right now I don’t see any team that is going to make a move into the top 3 to get Johnson. Based on the way the NFL value chart works, it is very difficult to move up into the top 3 from outside of the top 10. So, Minnesota is the only team I really see with much potential to make the move for Johnson.

5. Arizona Cardinals: Gaines Adams, DE Clemson
I think it would be a mistake for Arizona not to move up and grab Thomas, but if they don’t the most sensible pick is Gaines Adams. If you are going to have trouble protecting your QB and can’t get help on the O-line, then why not get a player that is going to make it difficult for other teams to protect their QB. Alan Branch is another possibility, but they spend and early pick on DT Gabe Watson out of Michigan last year, so I don’t see them doing something similar this year.

6. Washington Redskins: Jamaal Anderson, DE Arkansas
The Washington war room should be the busiest on April 28th. The Redskins should really just send out a league wide memo that says “We really, really want to trade the #6 pick, someone please give us something for it.” It’s well documented that Washington is without their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round pick. So, it is logical for them to move down in round 1 in exchange for picks in the 2nd and/or 3rd round. If they stay put then I think they have to grab the best pass rusher available. They generated a league low, 16 sacks in 2006. LaRon Landry might intrigue Washington as well, now that Adam Archuletta has been sent packing and the Washington secondary had trouble creating turnovers in 2006.

7. Minnesota Vikings: Brady Quinn, QB Notre Dame
Minnesota is tough to nail down. They run the ball well and stop the run well but have trouble generating a pass rush. They could be interested in one of the top 2 defensive ends but after spending first round picks the last 2 years on DEs (Kenechi Udeze and Erasmus James) I think that they will be hesitant to do so again. They have a need for a WR, but Calvin Johnson is the only WR that warrants getting drafted in this spot. They are also unsettled at QB. Tavaris Jackson was their 2nd round pick last year. Can they commit to him and pass up a player like Quinn? Based on the way this draft has gone I don’t think so.

8. Atlanta Falcons: LaRon Landry, S LSU
The Matt Schaub deals moves Atlanta into the #8 spot and I’ve got to think they are targeting a specific player with this selection. It could be one of the top two DEs to replace the departed Patrick Kerney, but my money is that they want Landry from LSU. The Falcons biggest weakness last year might have been safety play. Chris Crocker seemingly got beat on every double move and Landry would immediately contribute to Atlanta with his speed and versatility.

9. Miami Dolphins: Levi Brown, OT Penn State
The Dolphins have a lot invested in Daunte Culpepper. If Culpepper is going to lead this team then they need some big men in front of him to pass protect. Culpepper was sacked 21 times in just 4 games in 2006. Although, Keith Traylor will be 38 this season, so DTs Alan Branch or Amobi Okoye could be appealing to Miami. Also, after losing Wes Welker to New England the Dolphins might be interested in grabbing a player like Ted Ginn that could fill Welker’s role as a WR / return man.

10. Houston Texans: Leon Hall, CB Michigan
Now that Houston has made the deal for Matt Schaub we can stop the Brady Quinn talk. Houston could use this pick to grab Levi Brown and upgrade their offensive line, but Houston had the 3rd fewest interceptions in 2006. Hall is the cornerback that is most ready to contribute and he could battle for a starting gig opposite of Dunta Robinson. The best player available is Alan Branch, so Houston could go that route as well.

11. San Francisco 49ers: Alan Branch, DT Michigan
Branch is a top 10 talent that slips because the teams ahead of San Francisco have bigger needs to fill. The 49ers struggled stopping the run at times last year and Branch could come in and start right away. San Francisco has spent the last month addressing needs at secondary and linebacker. One glaring hole they still have is at WR. Ted Ginn or Southern Californian standout Dwayne Jarrett could interest the 49ers, but Branch is the value pick at #11.

12. Buffalo Bills: Patrick Willis, LB Mississippi
Buffalo has lost 3 big pieces to their team in the free agency period: CB Nate Clements, LB London Fletcher, and RB Willis McGahee. I expect the Bills to fill one of those needs with their first pick. Buffalo spent several picks last year on getting younger in the secondary and while Marshawn Lynch is intriguing, I think the best value for the Bills to fill one of those needs is Willis, the top linebacker in the draft.

13. St. Louis Rams: Amobi Okoye, DT Louisville
The only team worse in the NFL at stopping the run in 2006 than the Indianapolis Colts was the St. Louis Rams. Okoye is a phenom at age 19 and should help to improve the Rams’ biggest weakness.

14. Carolina Panthers: Reggie Nelson, S Florida
Reggie Nelson is becoming a hot name around draft circles and some team might look to trade up to grab him (Jacksonville? New England?). Both of Carolina’s starting safeties are on the wrong side of 30 and getting some youth into their secondary couldn’t be a bad thing. Carolina could also grab TE Greg Olsen in this spot or a WR like Ted Ginn.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers: Adam Carriker, DE Nebraska
New Head Coach Mike Tomlin will likely use early picks to solidify his defense. The big question is whether he will continue to use the 3-4 defense that Bill Cowher ran or if he will switch to the 4-3 that Tomlin ran while the defensive coordinator in Minnesota. Regardless of which defense Tomlin decides to play Carriker could fit in as either a 4-3 DE or a 3-4 outside linebacker. Carriker could be the eventual replacement for the departed Joey Porter. Also, note that Pittsburgh’s secondary was atrocious last year and they could use their pick to grab a corner at this spot if they feel the young guys they have in that spot can’t get the job done.

16. Green Bay Packers: Marshawn Lynch, RB California
Green Bay has plenty of holes to fill, but none more glaring then their need at RB. Lynch is the clear cut #2 RB in this year’s draft and would be ready to contribute to the Packer’s offense right from the beginning.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars: Ted Ginn Jr., WR Ohio State
Jacksonville is a solid team with no glaring weaknesses. On defense they ranked high in all 3 major categories: points (4th), rushing (4th), and passing (10th). On offense they were solid accept for the passing game; points (9th), rushing (10th), and passing (24th). They have spent 2 first round picks on wide receivers: Reggie Williams and Matt Jones while both have flashed signs of progress there has not been enough consistency.

18. Cincinnati Bengals: Paul Posluszny, LB Penn State
The Bengals have spent recent first day draft picks on linebackers out of the University of Georgia. Odell Thurman has been great when on the field, which is less each year because of off-the-field incidences. (Thurman was suspended 4 games last year for violating the league’s substance abuse policy). David Pollack missed the entire 2006 season with a broken neck and may never see the playing field again. Also, the Bengals team is in need of character face lift. The linebacker off the field is reportedly a good presence in the locker room and an excellent talent between the lines.

19. Tennessee Titans: Robert Meacham, WR Tennessee
Tennessee has filled on hole on their team by adding CB Nick Harper in free agency, but depending on what happens with Adam Jones, they could be looking for more help at that position. Tennessee has lost top WR Drew Bennett to the Rams and adding local product Robert Meacham for Vince Young would be wise. The Titans could also be looking for a RB to pair with LenDale White, so don’t be surprised to see them pull the trigger on Marshawn Lynch if Green Bay passes.

20. New York Giants: Darrelle Revis, CB Pittsburgh
New York is seemingly out of the RB market with their recent trade for Reuben Droughns. Starting corner, Sam Madison, is in the twilight of his career and Revis would do well to not start as a rookie and spend a year behind Madison learning. Also, Revis brings the added dimension of the return, which New York would be in need of.

21. Denver Broncos: Jarvis Moss, DE Florida
The Broncos have had a busy off-season filling up holes as quickly as they were able to. One hole that remains is a pass rushing DE, after the Broncos failed to lure Patrick Kerney to Denver. Moss brings plenty of speed to the field and would fit in nicely with Denver’s 4-3 scheme.

22. Dallas Cowboys: Brandon Meriweather, S Miami
Look for Dallas to add either a wide receiver of a safety. The defensive secondary was Dallas’ biggest weaknesses in 2006. Safety Roy Williams was a pro bowler, but was beaten in coverage far too many times. The Dallas defense ranked 24th among all teams against the pass. If they choose to overlook the secondary (or are able to sign Ken Hamlin from Seattle), then look for a player like Dwayne Bowe or Dwayne Jarrett to go here. At the start of the 2007 season both starting wide receivers for Dallas (Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn) will be 33 years old.

23. Kansas City Chiefs: Dwayne Bowe, WR LSU
It is no secret what position has been the weakest for the Chiefs this decade. In a draft where there will be plenty of quality wide receivers available late in the first round, I don’t expect the Chiefs to do anything other than pick the highest one left on their board. The selection of Bowe will be the third LSU Tiger selected in the first round

24. New England Patriots: Chris Houston, CB Arkansas
New England has had a very busy off-season. They have improved at WR (Stallworth and Welker) and LB (A. Thomas). And they are rumored to be interested in adding inside linebacker Ed Hartwell. The biggest weakness for the Patriots is in the secondary. Asante Samuel has been franchised and could be gone as soon as next year. Grabbing Houston would give the Pats some much needed depth as well as a future successor for Samuel.

25. New York Jets: Greg Olsen, TE Miami
Olsen saw his draft stock skyrocket after running a blistering 40 time at the combine. Most have him pegged to go around the middle of the first round, but I don’t think his talent level is that high. If he were that good then I think he would have made a bigger impact on the college game. Nevertheless, the Jets are in the market for a TE and this is a good fit for them.

26. Philadelphia: Michael Griffin, S Texas
Donte Stallworth has bolted Philly for New England. However, the Eagles quickly replaced him by bringing Kevin Curtis into the fold. Numerous teams will have safety high on their need this at this point in the draft (Dallas, Philadelphia, New England, San Diego, and New Orleans). Philadelphia can grab the last safety before there is a significant drop-off in level of talent.

27. New Orleans Saints: Aaron Ross, CB Texas
Ross comes off the board right after his fellow secondary mate from Texas. New Orleans was only able to generate 11 interceptions last year and Fred Thomas has clearly lost a step. Thomas is 33 and fellow starter Mike McKenzie is 31. The Saints do not have much talent behind these 2 starters and need to begin developing some.

28. New England Patriots: Anthony Spencer, DE/OLB Purdue
Spencer fits the New England 3-4 system. New England already has another Boilermaker playing the 3-4 outside linebacker position—Roosevelt Colvin has been a productive member of that defense. I fully expect New England to spend at least one pick improving their secondary if not two. If Spencer does not fit the bill then possibly look for New England to grab some added youth at offensive line.

29. Baltimore Ravens: Joe Staley OT, Central Michigan
Starting Right Tackle Tony Pashos has bolted for Jacksonville. Staley could move into the lineup and replace him and eventually be ready to move to the left side to replace Jonathan Ogden (entering his 12th season).

30. San Diego Chargers: Dwayne Jarrett, WR USC
There is no team in the league with fewer holes than San Diego. Wide receiver is a need that sticks out. Vincent Jackson flashed some brilliance at the end of the season, but even if he becomes a quality receiver then they are still looking for someone to play opposite of him. Jarrett is another tall target like Jackson and could create problems for teams with small corners. Jarrett, originally though to be the second WR taken, has seen his stock drop. He’ll need a good 40 time at his pro day to bring himself back up towards the top of the first round.

31. Chicago Bears: Justin Blalock, G Texas
Blalock could be the 4th Texas Longhorn to be drafted in the first round in April. Drafting guards isn’t glorious but games are won at the line of scrimmage.

32. Indianapolis Colts: Lawrence Timmons, LB Florida State
The defending champs continue to lose players in free agency: RB Dominic Rhodes (Oakland), LB Cato June (Tampa Bay), CB Nick Harper (Tennessee) WR Brandon Stokely (Denver) DT Monte Reagor (Philadelphia). Joseph Addai is ready to step up and carry the load at RB and Indy has been investing first day picks into defensive backs the last several years (Marlin Jackson, Kelvin Hayden, and Tim Jennings), so I think he pick here is to replace June. Timmons ran the 40 at 4.52 at the combine and Dungy loves quick linebackers that can fly to the ball. However, the Colts have been hesitant to spend early picks on linebackers in the past. They may choose to grab a big defensive tackle to help upgrade their run defense. Tank Tyler (NC State) and Justin Harrell (Tennessee) come to mind.

NFL Mock Draft - 3/12/07

Okay here is my attempted at mocking the first round of the NFL draft that is scheduled the last weekend in April. You can check out my previous attempt at a Mock draft here. Feel free to leave your general comments, or thoughts based on your knowledge of your favorite team.


1. Oakland Raiders: JaMarcus Russell, QB LSU
It seems like a foregone conclusion now that the Raiders and Al Davis will take Russell with their top pick. Russell came in a few pounds overweight to the combine but I don’t think that is enough to scare the Raiders away. Calvin Johnson’s size, speed, and height probably make the Raiders salivate and there would be room for him if they move Moss, but I just don’t see the Raiders passing on a QB.

2. Arizona Cardinals * from Detroit: Joe Thomas, OT Wisconsin
Detroit has some room to maneuver after their trade with Denver. They filled some holes at RB and their offensive line, but their remains voids at QB and now DB. Quinn could easily be the pick here now, but I think that is too risky of a pick for Millen. I think they trade down and get the DE they covet. Arizona has one glaring need on their team and this the offiensive line. Thomas is the only can't miss prospect and former Steelers' coaches Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm would love to plug him into their system.

3. Cleveland Browns: Adrian Peterson, RB Oklahoma
The Reuben Droughns era is officially over now. Droughns is on his way to NY and Jamal Lewis enters the scene on a 1 year deal. Sounds like the perfect situation to draft Peterson and let them share the load for a year (see: Colts, Indianapolis and Patriots, New England) Adrian Peterson has all the tools necessary to be successful in the NFL including passion for the game (note how he came back to play in the Fiesta Bowl after his collarbone injury) and speed (ran a 4.4 40 time at the Scouting Combine in Indianapolis). The Browns could be tempted to take Brady Quinn but they are partially invested in Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson. And Thomas would fit in nicely as well if available.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Calvin Johnson, WR Georgia Tech
Tampa is the big winner in the draft. They get the best player on everyone’s board in a position that they need. Johnson is 6’5” 239 pounds and ran the 40 in 4.35 seconds on borrowed shoes. He also doesn’t bring any baggage in the form of ‘me first attitude’, a police record, or laziness. He is this year’s can’t miss pick.

5. Detroit Lions* from Arizona: Gaines Adams, DE Clemson
Deroit is rumored to be very interested in Adams and at the #5 pick he is a great value. Under this scenario Quinn would still be available and might make a tough decision for Millen, but again I think taking a QB this high is too much of a risk for Detroit and their management at this point.

6. Houston Texans* from Washington: Brady Quinn, QB Notre Dame
It is no secret that Washington is looking to move down and acquire more picks since they are without their 2nd, 3rd, or 4th round picks. Houston needs a new signal caller since I fully expect them to deal David Carr to another team in exchange for a 3rd round pick before draft day. And it's very possible that they send that very same 3rd round pick they acquire from dealing Carr in order to move up to spots in round 1 to draft the Notre Dame signal caller. Quinn is a polished passer after several seasons under Charlie Weiss. If Houston sees Quinn slip to this point I think they'll make sure they get him by trading to get ahead of Minnesota. Also, look for Denver to potentially move up into this spot to grab one of the top 2 rated defensive ends.

7. Minnesota Vikings: LaRon Landry, S LSU
Minnesota might show interest in Anderson since they had trouble generating a pass rush in 2006, but after spending first round picks the last 2 years on DEs (Kenechi Udeze and Erasmus James) I think that they will be hesitant to do so again. Minnesota was ranked #1 against the run last year, but 31st against the pass. So, I see them upgrading their secondary. Also grabbing a WR like Ted Ginn Jr. would fill a need, but I can see the Vikings being gun-shy after drafting another WR at #7 hasn’t worked out so well (Troy Williamson, 2004). Quinn could be the pick if he is still on the board, however similar to Cleveland, Minnesota is partially invested in Tavaris Jackson which leads me to believe that they will pass on Quinn.

8. Denver Broncos* from Washington via Houston: Jamaal Anderson, DE Arkansas
Washington has a busy 30 minutes at the top end of round 1. They are looking to move down and find two willing partners. Houston wanted to grab their QB and Denver is looking to get another pass rusher after losing out to Seattle in the bid to get Patrick Kerney. Washington should be able to swap first round picks and pick up Denver's 2nd round pick and pick or 2 more on day 2 of the draft.

9. Miami Dolphins: Alan Branch, DT Michigan
Culpepper was sacked 21 times in just 4 games in 2006. That is a bad sign for the 'Fins if they wish to compete. With that knowledge they may look to plug in Levi Brown from Texas here as the best offensive lineman on the board. However, Branch is just too good to pass up and the Dolphins need to add some youth to their aging defense.

10. Atlanta Falcons: Leon Hall, CB Michigan
In 2006 Atlanta’s weaknesses were secondary play, pass protection, and wide receiver play. And now with the departure of Patrick Kerney, defensive end has just become a need. I think the Falcons jump on either Adams or Anderson if available or they could take a shot on Adam Carriker or Jarvis Moss at this point. I also think Landry would be a great fit into what they do if he is available. Hall can move into the starting lineup along with DeAngelo Hall, Lawyer Milloy and Jimmy Williams (playing safety). Or the Falcons could go after a S like Reggie Nelson and move Jimmy Williams to the cornerback position. New coach Bobby Petrino has been open about his desire to make the offensive line bigger as well, so Levi Jones would not be out of the question with the 10th pick. I highly doubt the Falcons will use this pick to go after a WR though, General Manager Rich McKay has spent the Falcons last 2 first round picks on WRs Michael Jenkins (2004) and Roddy White (2005).

11. San Francisco 49ers: Ted Ginn Jr., WR Ohio State
San Francisco has done little to improve their receiver corps in free agency. They parted ways with Antonio Bryant and then signed speedster Ashlie Lelie to a 2 year deal. Grabbing the 2nd best WR on the board would make sense for the Niners as they continue to give Alex Smith weapons. Ginn also brings a dynamic return game to the table which teams will give extra thought to this year after the success of Devin Hester in Chicago.

12. Buffalo Bills: Patrick Willis, LB Mississippi
Buffalo has numerous holes to fill after a free agency that has seen key players depart (London Fletcher, Nate Clements, and Willis McGahee). Buffalo could choose to use their first pick on upgrading any one of these 3 positions: RB (Lynch), CB (Houston), or LB (Willis). Willis is the top on my board of the 3 players after his strong performance at the combine. I say the Bills take the best players at a position of need, and that happens to be Patrick Willis.

13. St. Louis Rams: Amobi Okoye, DT Louisville
The only team worse in the NFL at stopping the run in 2006 than the Indianapolis Colts was the St. Louis Rams. Okoye is a phenom at age 19 and should help to improve the Rams’ biggest weakness. If either of the top 2 rated defensive tackles are available I do not expect the Rams to hesitate turning in their card to Roger Goodell.

14. Carolina Panthers: Levi Brown, OT Penn State
The Panthers could go several different ways with their first selection. Safety Reggie Nelson would fit with the Panthers. 2 years ago they drafted Thomas Davis and expected him to be their safety of the future but have discovered that he fits better in the LB role. Or Carolina could choose to reach and grab the best TE available (Greg Olsen) after failing to get Tony Gonzalez in free agency when KC resigned the Pro Bowler. However, finding a good left tackle is a hard thing to do. Carolina struggled running the ball and protecting the QB in 2006 and getting another guy in the trenches can only help.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers: Chris Houston, CB Arkansas
New Head Coach Mike Tomlin will likely use early picks to solidify his defense. The big question is whether he will continue to use the 3-4 defense that Bill Cowher ran or if he will switch to the 4-3 that Tomlin ran while the defensive coordinator in Minnesota. Regardless of which defense you play though, all defenses need good corners and Pittsburgh was much worse against the pass (20th) than they were the run (3rd). Houston wowed scouts in Indianapolis by running a 4.32 time in the 40. He isn't as polished as some other cornerbacks, but he has raw ability that others do not possesss.

16. Green Bay Packers: Marshawn Lynch, RB California
Green Bay has lost RB Ahman Green to Houston in free agency and now they are left with a bare cupboard. Lynch is clearly the #2 RB in the year’s draft class. He brings speed and the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield proficiently. Favre is in need of weapons if he is to lead this team back to the postseason, and Lynch is ready to step in and contribute from day one.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars: Reggie Nelson, S Florida
Jacksonville is a solid team with no glaring weaknesses. Safety Deon Grant has moved on to Seattle and Jacksonville has been rumored to be interested in keeping this college star in state. However, Nelson may not be available at 17 after a strong showing at his pro day. New England is also interested in Nelson and with 2 first round picks the Patriots may move ahead in round 1 to grab Nelson.

18. Cincinnati Bengals: Paul Posluszny, LB Penn State
The Bengals have spent recent first day draft picks on linebackers out of the University of Georgia. Odell Thurman has been great when on the field, which is less each year because of off-the-field incidences. (Thurman was suspended 4 games last year for violating the league’s substance abuse policy). David Pollack missed the entire 2006 season with a broken neck and may never see the playing field again. Also, the some good character guys, and Poslusny has been labeled as such.

19. Tennessee Titans: Robert Meacham, WR Tennessee
Tennessee already had eyes on adding a cornerback before the most recent misbehavior by Adam ‘Pacman’ Jones. This last off field encounter may force the Titans to cut ties with him, which would leave a big hole to fill in the secondary. So, Aaron Ross could easily be the pick here. But I expect the Titans to sign free agent CB Nick Harper. The move would strenthen the Titans and weaken their competition in the AFC South. I think it is only a matter of time before this happens. The Titans also have a need to add a playmaker at WR. Drew Bennett has already left Tennessee to catch balls from Marc Bulger and there are plenty of wide receivers in the draft that would make sense with this pick: Dwayne Jarrett was a standout at USC and played under offensive coordinator Norm Chow. Robert Meacham starred on Saturdays his past fall with the University of Tennessee and had a good showing at the combine. I’ll go with Meacham for now, but we’ll have to watch this situation closely as the draft nears to see which WR might be at the top of Tennessee's list.

20. New York Giants: Darrelle Revis, CB Pittsburgh
New York is seemingly out of the RB market with their recent trade for Reuben Droughns. Starting corner, Sam Madison, is in the twilight of his career and Revis would do well to not start as a rookie and spend a year behind Madison learning. Also, Revis brings the added dimension of the return, which New York would be in need of.

21. Washington Redskins* from Denver: Adam Carriker, DE Nebraska
Washington finds itself in a nice place. They have moved down twice now to accumulate extra (and much needed) draft picks. Now, they are in a position to draft the best player available in a position of need. Washington ranked dead last in the NFL in total number of sacks. Getting a player who can rush the passer is paramount.

22. Dallas Cowboys: Dwayne Jarrett, WR USC
Look for Dallas to add either a wide receiver of a safety. The defensive secondary was Dallas’ biggest weaknesses in 2006. Safety Roy Williams was a pro bowler, but was beaten in coverage far too many times. The Dallas defense ranked 24th among all teams against the pass. Dallas may choose to stay in the state and draft one of 2 University of Texas star defensive backs. Both Aaron Ross (CB) and Michael Griffin (S) would make sense in this slot. However, I see Jerry Jones making a splash at WR and grabbing Jarrett. At the start of the 2007 season both starting wide receivers for Dallas (Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn) will be 33 years old.

23. Kansas City Chiefs: Dwayne Bowe, WR LSU
It is no secret what position has been the weakest for the Chiefs this decade. In a draft where there will be plenty of quality wide receivers available late in the first round, I don’t expect the Chiefs to do anything other than pick the highest one left on their board. The selection of Bowe will be the third LSU Tiger selected in the first round.

24. New England Patriots: Aaron Ross, CB Texas
New England has had a very busy offseason. They have improved at WR (Stallworth and Welker) and LB (A. Thomas). And they are rumored to be interested in adding inside linebacker Ed Hartwell. The biggest weakness for the Patriots is in the secondary. Asante Samuel has been franchised and could be gone as soon as next year. Grabbing Ross would give the Pats some much needed depth as well as a future successor for Samuel.

25. New York Jets: Jarvis Moss, DE Florida
The Jets spend last year’s draft upgrading the offensive line and I expect to see them spend the ’07 draft working on the other side of the ball. Moss is a speed rusher that showcased his talents in the National Championship game against Ohio State. Greg Olsen could also be the pick here after running a blistering 40 time at the combine.

26. Philadelphia Eagles: Michael Griffin, S Texas
Donte Stallworth has bolted Philly for New England. Reggie Brown is the only quality WR that the Eagles still have on the roster. So, it is quite possible to use a pick here at WR. However, the of the receivers that are left are Sidney Rice and Anthony Gonzalez and it might be a bit of a reach to take either one here. Starting safety Brian Dawkins is entering his 12th NFL season and 2005 4th round pick Sean Considine has not impressed many people.

27. New Orleans Saints: Greg Olsen, TE Miami
Olsen may not last this long on draft day, but if he does I expect New Orleans to write down his name. The Saints did not get much production out of the tight end position in 2006 and why not give Drew Brees and one of the NFL's highest powered offenses another weapon.

28. New England Patriots: Brandon Meriweather, S Miami
We already discussed the Patriots need to improve their secondary. This pick would give them further depth in case Rodney Harrison gets injured again, and Meriweather can be groomed to replace the aging Harrison.

29. Baltimore Ravens: Anthony Spencer, DE/OLB Purdue
By making a trade for RB Willis McGahee the Patriots have eliminated the need to spend a pick on that position. Baltimore loves to run the 3-4 and to do so you need athletic hybrid players that can do a lot of things. After losing A. Thomas to the Patriots, the Ravens may try to find a similar player in the draft.

30. San Diego Chargers: Charles Johnson, DE Georgia
There is no team in the league with fewer holes than San Diego. Wide receiver is a need that sticks out. Vincent Jackson flashed some brilliance at the end of the season, but even if he becomes a quality receiver then they are still looking for someone to play opposite of him. However, I don't see the value being here to pick a WR. Charles Johnson has spectacular Junior year at Georgia and may see his name called earlier than this on draft day. He is the best player on the board and good teams, have the luxury of picking the best player regardless of position.

31. Chicago Bears: Justin Blalock, G Texas
Blalock could be the 4th Texas Longhorn to be drafted in the first round in April. Drafting guards isn’t glorious but games are won at the line of scrimmage.

32. Indianapolis Colts: Lawrence Timmons, LB Florida State
The defending champs stand to lose several key players in free agency: RB Dominic Rhodes is already gone (Oakland); others to leave soon - LB Cato June (NY Giants?) and CB Nick Harper (Tennessee?). Joseph Addai is ready to step up and carry the load at RB and Indy has been investing first day picks into defensive backs the last several years (Marlin Jackson, Kelvin Hayden, Tim Jennings), so I think he pick here is to replace June. Timmons ran the 40 at 4.52 at the combine and Dungy loves quick linebackers that can fly to the ball.