Friday, April 27, 2007

NFL Mock Draft - 4/27/07

Alright, here is my final version of a Mock Draft. Trades are included with guidelines for what I think the compensation that will be given.

1. Oakland Raiders: JaMarcus Russell, QB LSU
Oakland desperately needs a signal caller. Russell possesses all the tools to be great. I don’t know how much of a chance he’ll have to show it behind that offensive line though.

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers* from Detroit: Calvin Johnson, WR Georgia Tech
(compensation for the pick: Detroit receives the 64th and 68th overall picks)
If reports are true that Detroit wants Gaines Adams then they would be fools not to trade out of this pick for whatever they can get. Tampa could sit tight and hope that Johnson falls to them at #4. However, I think they’ll want to be sure they get him at #2 with others team showing interest in trading up for Johnson.

3. Cleveland Browns: Joe Thomas, OT Wisconsin
Most people think that Cleveland will take either Quinn or Peterson here. I think Romeo Crennel and Phil Savage understand the need to control the line of scrimmage. And Cleveland already has 2 developmental QBs with Frye and Anderson. It makes more sense to get a veteran QB than to draft another young guy.

4. Detroit Lions* from Tampa Bay: Gaines Adams, DE Clemson
All reports from Detroit are that the Lions want Adams. Generally around this time I would write off any rumors as a smokescreen. However, knowing that Matt Millen is running the show I would not be surprised if this is true.

5. Arizona Cardinals: Adrian Peterson, RB Oklahoma
The Cardinals have to be hoping for Joe Thomas to make it this far. I do not foresee that happening. So, Arizona can look to trade down to a team that wants a player (Quinn, Peterson) or they can take the highest player on their board (Peterson, Brown, Landry). I see them joining the masses in the NFL and going to the 2 running back system. James is 1 year into a 4 year deal – He and Peterson can split time for 1 year, then Arizona could dump James and his monster contract and hand Peterson the full load in 2008.

6. Miami Dolphins* from Washington: Brady Quinn, QB Notre Dame
(Compensation for the pick: Washington receives Miami’s 3rd round pick)
If there is any wisdom in Daniel Snyder then he will trade down. They need extra picks with so many holes on their team - Washington was 27th in points given up, 31st in total defense, 27th against the run, 23rd against the pass. They had fewer sacks than any other team, fewest interceptions, and only had one more fumble than the Raiders defense to keep them from finishing last in that category too. Miami moves ahead of Minnesota to snag Quinn, who they have been enamored with for a long time.

7. Atlanta Falcons* from Minnesota Vikings: LaRon Landry, S LSU
(Compensation for the pick: Minnesota receives Miami’s 5th round pick)
There isn’t much left on the board for Minnesota. Johnson, Peterson and the 2 QBs might be the only players that really interested them. Landry is clearly the best player on the board, but Minnesota has a greater need at CB. If pressed to make a selection here I think Minnesota would take Landry – but I also think they would gladly take an extra pick to move on spot down. Atlanta gets the player they covet without giving up too much and now they can focus their 2 second round picks on the offensive and defensive line (where there is more depth in round than there is at safety in round 2).

8. Minnesota Vikings* from Atlanta: Leon Hall, CB Michigan
Hall is the top-rated corner according to most people around the league. Minnesota has a bigger need at WR, but the value just isn’t there. They’ll be able to address that need early in round 2.

9. Washington Redskins* from Miami: Amobi Okoye, DT Louisville
Washington is bad everywhere on defense. The logical thing to do is to take the best defensive player regardless of position. Okoye is the best left – now we’ll just wait and see if owner Daniel Snyder can be logical.

10. Houston Texans: Levi Brown, OT Penn State
Houston catches a big break here having the 2nd best offensive lineman fall to them. 3 teams ahead of Houston will take a long look at Brown (Arizona, Atlanta, and Miami). If all 3 of these teams decide to pass, then Houston should waste no time getting their draft card to the podium.

11. San Francisco 49ers: Adam Carriker, DE Nebraska
I think this pick will come down to 2 players – either Carriker or Patrick Willis. In the end, I say Carriker gets the nod because of the important role he’ll play in the 3-4 defense of Mike Nolan.

12. Buffalo Bills: Patrick Willis, LB Mississippi
After this off-season Buffalo has some major holes to fill. On the bright side, when their pick comes up there should be no problem finding and excellent player to fill one of those needs. Willis would be a perfect replacement for departed linebacker, London Fletcher.

13. St. Louis Rams: Jamaal Anderson, DE Arkansas
St. Louis was terrible at stopping the run last year. They’ve got to get better across the board on the defensive line. Knowing that, there are only 2 players that make sense at the #13 pick – Anderson or Alan Branch. Branch has been falling for a month now and we do not know when it will stop.

14. Carolina Panthers: Reggie Nelson, S Florida Alan Branch, DT Michigan
Carolina might be interested in Branch if they can move Kris Jenkins before or during the draft. If not then I see them grabbing Reggie Nelson to fill a void in their defense.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers: Darrelle Revis, CB Pittsburgh
I expect new, defensive-minded Head Coach, Mike Tomlin to use early picks getting players on defense that he is comfortable with. Last season the Steelers biggest weakness on defense was their secondary play. And while it remains to be seen whether Pittsburgh will play the 4-3 or 3-4, both schemes call for talented corners. A bonus here is that Revis is a local product (played at the University of Pittsburgh) and fans always like to see familiar names be called on draft day.

16. Green Bay Packers: Greg Olsen, TE Miami
Green Bay needs a RB for sure – but I do not think Marshawn Lynch is the answer, at least not in round 1. Lynch has character concerns which will drop him in the draft thanks to the hard line taken on conduct issues by new Commissioner Roger Goodell. Olsen is head and shoulders about the rest of the TE class and fills and immediate need for Green Bay.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jarvis Moss, DE Florida
Jacksonville’s biggest need might be at WR, but they can’t afford to use another high pick on a pass catcher. Moss will improve the pass rush for the Jaguars and Moss will be comfortable playing pro ball near his old college stomping grounds.

18. Cincinnati Bengals: Alan Branch, DT Michigan
Cincinnati has a big need at defensive tackle and Branch is a top 10 talent that has dropped the last month because of poor workouts and concerns about his effort throughout games. He is a great value here for Cincinnati.

19. Tennessee Titans: Ted Ginn Jr., WR Ohio State
Marshawn Lynch is available, but character concerns will keep Tennessee away. Cornerback is a possibility but I think Ted Ginn Jr. is too much to pass up. His return prowess is an added bonus – and Tennessee will need someone to fill Adam Jones’ shoes in that regard.

20. New York Giants: Paul Posluszny, LB Penn State
Joe Staley could be the selection here with New York looking to replace Luke Petigout. But New York is looking for a linebacker and Posluszny is an excellent one from nearby Penn State.

21. Denver Broncos: Joe Staley OT, Central Michigan
I think the Broncos would love to find a pass-rusher like Jarvis Moss at this spot, but I don’t think he’ll make it to them. Staley has been moving up the draft board steadily the last month. Denver could add him and make him the anchor to their line and Jay Cutler’s best friend for seasons to come.

22. Dallas Cowboys: Robert Meacham, WR Tennessee
Dallas had a need to get young at WR. Starters Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn are both 33 and have many, many miles on the odometer. Local products in the secondary like Aaron Ross and Michal Griffin from Texas could be intriguing though.

23. Kansas City Chiefs: Dwayne Bowe, WR LSU
Offensive lineman Willie Road and Will Shields have left in consecutive years now. Joe Staley would be an excellent pick if available – but it’s hard to believe he’ll make it past both the Giants and Broncos. The Chiefs still have a big hole to fill at WR, and Bowe is full of value at the 23rd pick.

24. New England Patriots: Chris Houston, CB Arkansas
Asante Samuel has yet to negotiate a new deal or sign the franchise tender. I do not expect him to be with New England for more than one more year. That means getting a player to develop behind him is paramount.

25. New York Jets: Anthony Spencer, DE/OLB Purdue
Pretty straightforward here – Spencer is one of the best available players and he fits a need and role for the Jets.

26. Philadelphia: Aaron Ross, S Texas
Philadelphia needs to get younger and deeper in their secondary. They may have their choice between 2 stars from the University of Texas (Ross and Michael Griffin). Ross is slated slightly higher and gets the nod here.

27. New Orleans Saints: Lawrence Timmons, LB Florida State
New Orleans fills a big hole at CB when they signed restricted free agent, Jason David, away from the Colts. Timmons has had an up and down ride in the draft stock market. Another option for the Saints and feel good story would be to draft Dwayne Bowe from LSU if he falls to this point.

28. New England Patriots: Jon Beason, LB Miami
It is very difficult to predict what the Patriots will do. I think their needs come at linebacker and secondary. With the 28th there are 2 star Hurricanes available (Beason and safety Brandon Meriweather). Meriweather might still carry some concerns after beating and opposing player with his helmet during a brawl last season. And after already addressing their secondary with their first pick, linebacker would seem to make more sense here.

29. Baltimore Ravens: Marcus McCauley, CB Fresno State
Offensive tackle is a big need source here with RT Tony Pashos gone and left tackle Jonathan Ogden considering retirement. Joe Staley might have been available here 3 weeks ago, but no longer. Baltimore should be able to fill that need later and grabbing a talented corner like McCauley makes more sense in this situation.

30. San Diego Chargers: Brandon Meriweather, S Miami
Griffin and Meriweather are the top safeties left on the board. Meriweather is more talented but comes with more baggage. I expect talent to trump character on this one.

31. Chicago Bears: Ben Grubbs, G Auburn
Grubbs is talented enough to be an early first round pick, but the fact that he plays guard drops him down the list. NFL teams just do not value the guard position highly, but make no mistake this young man will be an excellent football player. Chicago should find no trouble finding a spot for him to play for 10-12 years.

32. Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Gonzalez, WR Ohio State
Bill Polian and Tony Dungy feel like they can find players to fit their needs at other positions later in the draft. However, finding a WR that has the quickness, hands, and route running ability later in the draft is less likely. Gonzalez is a polished WR that can play in the slot for the Colts who use 3 wide receivers regularly. The Colts may look to trade down into the middle of round 2 and get Gonzalez, Steve Smith, or Craig Davis at that point if the option presents itself.

1 comment:

sarahnoel said...

Hmm, I have no actual idea about the intricacies of your guys' league and what the implications of the draft are for it, BUT...

the Bears' 3rd round pick was Garret Wolf from my school, NIU where I have watched him play for the past few years.

He's awesome--should have won the...Hiesman?--so, that's my two cents.