RB Rankings

1. LaDainian Tomlinson - LT should be the #1 player drafted in every fantasy league regardless of number of teams, scoring format, or skill level of those competing. If you are participating in a draft where Tomlinson does not go first overall, then immediately stop the draft and petition your commissioner because collusion must be involved, unless of course you have the #2 pick. If that is the case then sit down and shut up and try and wipe that stupid smirk off your face.

2. Steven Jackson - Jackson has little risk and plenty of upside. He has no competition to split carries with him. There is no goal line vulture back. He catches the ball well enough to continue to score points even when his team is getting dominated. And he has a small injury history.

3. Larry Johnson - Johnson is similar to Jackson in that he has little risk and large upside. However, Jackson gets the edge on him because Johnson is returning after a season in which he carried the ball a league record 416 times. I'm not too worried, but worried enough to move him out of the #2 spot.

4. Shaun Alexander - Many people are down on Shaun this season and I can understand why. He is over 30 which is normally death to a RB, and he is coming off a season where he missed a good portion of games due to injury. However, I think the injury may do more good than harm. He should be fresher this season after fewer carries and less hits in 2006. Plus, he still plays 6 games against the lousy NFC West.

5. Rudi Johnson - Safe pick here for sure. Rudi is almost a lock to finish in the top 12. He gets plenty of touches in Cincinnatti and his share of touchdowns. His upside isn't as great as some below him, but he is a very low risk pick. My philosophy is that you can't win your league with your first round pick, but you can lose your league with that first pick. I don't expect Rudi to finish this high, but I rank him here because of that low risk.

6. Frank Gore - Many people have Gore ranked as high as 2 or 3, but I'm not sold yet. He needs to play at a high level for more than one season for me to rank him in the top 5. While I like the directions the Niners are headed, I still have a hard time trusting any of their offensive players. Also, Norv Turner is no longer running their offense (Gore nearly begged him to stay), so I'm not sure how the play calling will change with a new Offensive Coordinator. (notice that Gore marks the 3rd RB in the top 6 that resides in the NFC West)

7. Brian Westbrook - If I knew he was going to play in all 16 games I might have him ranked 2nd, but alas that is not the case. Westbrook is a big risk/reward player and his injuries cannot be overlooked, but neither can his production. He finished 4th among RBs last year despite missing one game with injury and one game as he rested for the playoffs.

8. Willie Parker - Parker has now put a 2 very good seasons together in Pittsburgh. I have my concerns with a new Head Coach, new offensive coordinator, and new offensive line coach though. Plus, with Parker's small stature there is always the possibility that he loses goal line carries to a bigger running back.

9 and 10. Joseph Addai and Laurence Maroney - I am torn between these two players. Both are second year backs that excelled as rookies despite sharing the load. They enter 2007 with their veteran backfield mates having moved on. Both are in line to get plenty of catches and carries in 2007. If push came to shove right now I would probably grab Addai first, but Maroney is a nice consolation prize.

11. Travis Henry
12. Clinton Portis
13. Willis McGahee
14. Ronnie Brown
15. Cedric Benson
16. Chester Taylor
17. Maurice Jones-Drew
18. Reggie Bush
19. Brandon Jacobs
20. Thomas Jones
21. Ahman Green
22. Marion Barber III
23. Deuce McAllister
24. Edgerrin James
25. Cadillac Williams
26. Tatum Bell
27. Warrick Dunn
28. Jamal Lewis
29. DeAngelo Williams
30. Julius Jones

RB Rankings

After working on my previous post, I realized that I needed to start to get together my early '07 fantasy RB rankings. Otherwise, I'll end up with 15 RBs I think will finish in the top 10. So here is my very early, subject to a lot of change shot at ranking the top 30 or so RBs....(If you want to see this list without the comments and including '06 fantasy stats, click here).

Just to clarify, my rankings are not so much my predictions, as they are my value for each player. What I mean, is that there is a certain amount of risk associated with various players that hurts their value. Now sure I may be wrong about guys like Westbrook, LJ, S. Alexander and others, and maybe they will be healthy and their risk factors won't affect them. in which case I will have them ranked way too low, however, I think that the sureness of a guy like W. McGahee producing well week in and week out for an entire season, gives him more value than some guys who may end up finishing ahead of him at the end of the season....

1. LDT (my only concern here is the high turnover that comes at the elite RB position. Elite RBs turnover very fast).
2. S. Jackson (what's not to love about this up and comer. Gets better each year, and will live up to the hype that accompanied him when he was drafted. May not quite ever become the next Faulk, but close enough.)
3. F. Gore (a 49er? This high? Well, he was the #5 RB last year, which many people probably failed to notice, and he is in a stable environment, with an offense that I think will continue to improve with Norv turner as the OC)
4. W. Parker (I really was tempted to put him above F. Gore, but there are two things that worry me. He had a heavy reliance on his 11 rushing TDs to get him to the #6 RB last year, and unless you are an elite back, TDs can be a very fickle thing. Plus the coaching change. Rumor has it the Steelers may go to more 4 WR sets, and that sounds like a passing offense to me. Part of the reason Parker fared so well, is that he was in perhaps one of the most run heavy offenses of the decade so far. Is that about to change?)
5. T. Henry (This is totally contingent on him playing at least 14 games. Henry has a history of getting dinged up, but almost an equal history of playing through the pain. If he can get 13-14 fantasy games under his belt, I think he'll make the top 5, and if he is healthy for the full slate, look for him to finish 2 or 3).
6. R. Johnson (Doesn't get more consistent than this guy. He just finishes in the top 10 year after year after year)
7. C. Portis (I know a lot of people will be down on Portis because of the injury, my initial gut feeling is that he will come back just fine, and return to his productive ways)
8. L. Johnson (Hanson is going to rip me in the comments for this one, but I worry a lot about L. Johnson. Admittedly I worried last year too with H. Edwards in town, but now that Edwards has had 2 years to screw things up, surely L. Johnson will suffer. Plus, L. Johnson faced one of the heaviest workloads by a back ever. I think he will hurt this year because of it. Top 10 still for sure, but I'm not taking him #2 like everyone else).
9. J. Addai (Ah, the homer pick (as in fantasy homer). I really like the potential that Addai has in the high flying Indy offense. There are only two concerns at this point. One is that the Colts bring in another back to split time with him, now that Rhodes is gone. Two, that Addai just isn't strong enough to hold up to a 16 game schedule. )
10. W. McGahee (Okay, this is truly a homer pick here. I think that the reason that McGahee is a top 10 back, is just due to the uncertainty below him. I think he will consistently place in the top 15 of backs every week, and over a season where other RBs will get injured and have their ups and downs, I think McGahee sneaks past a some flashier backs to a top 10 ranking).

11. L. Maroney (Could he have a year like Dillon did, the year before Maroney showed up? I see a good chance of that.)
12. B. Westbrook (When he is healthy, he'll be a top 5 back. Putting him at 12, is factoring in how many games I think he'll miss with injury)
13. S. Alexander (I think that the ship has sailed on Alexander. Some people might think I'm crazy, but the year after P. Holmes go hurt the first time, everyone wanted to give him a second chance too. Alexander doesn't get a second chance from me. He's over 30 and an injury risk. His ship has sailed.)
14. B. Jacobs (How many carries will R. Droughns get?)
15. T. Bell (I'm counting on him catching the ball some to finish up here. Not sure what his skills are in that area since Denver almost never throws to their RBs, so if he lacks receiving skills, then expect T. Bell to drop out of the top 20, and possibly the top 30.)
16. A. Green (I've always had a thing for the Houston RB situation, since jumping on D. Davis his rookie year)
17. C. Taylor (So, I'm seeing L. Jordan as the standard here for what happens to former backups given starting gigs. First year exceed expectations, finish as top 10 fantasy back. 2nd year they are exhausted from the heaviest workload they have experienced in their career and fall a long way. C. Taylor was already showing signs of breaking down at the end of last season (I probably don't have Taylor low enough, considering how horrible the Minny offense and team is probably going to be.))
18. C. Benson (This is all about the situation. I don't like his attitude and am skeptical of his skills if he couldn't outplay T. Jones, but Chicago runs the ball a lot and tend to do a good job of it.)
19. E. James (This is the point where you get thrown in merely for being the clear #1 RB in an offense. Too bad for James the talent for this team is clearly set up for throwing the ball.)
20. W. Dunn (J. Norwood could hurt Dunn's chances of even making the top 20, depending on how much Atlanta chooses to use him this year.)
21. T. Jones (see notes in previous post)
22. R. Brown (remember when he was such a stud at the combine?)
23. Re. Bush (the amazing thing is, he could finish this high without a single rushing yard or TD.)
24. C. Williams (ugly back in an ugly offense....ho hum...this really is the dregs of the RBs down here)
25. L. Jordan (plays in Oakland, nothing more needs to be said...other than the fact that he now has a slim hope of breaking the top 30, since his OC is no longer a guy running a bed and breakfast).
26. M. Jones-Drew (if only F. Taylor had retired or moved on, then Jones-Drew would have easily made my top 15 and possibly top 10.)
27. D. McAllister (Assuming that NO doesn't try to get R. Bush more involved in the actual running of the ball)
28. J. Jones (I know most people will have M. Barber III over Jones, but until I hear otherwise, I'm going with the guy who will get the yards over the one getting the TDs. I'm not so sure the Dallas offense is going to score as many rushing TDs with Big Tuna out of town.)
29. M. Barber III (see above)
30. F. Taylor (I had to pick some random back to be #30)

Notable backs missing from list:
Carolina RBs (situation too confusing with Foster and DeAngelo Williams. And even if one back were to emerge, its still a crappy place to run the ball, when the offense is all about chucking it up to S. Smith and hoping he comes down with it.)
Green Bay RBs (I don't even know who the RB here is yet? A rookie possibly?)
Buffal RBs (see Green Bay RBs)
J. Lewis (I really probably should have given him that ugly #30 spot over F. Taylor, although, as soon as Cleveland drafted A. Peterson I would have just dropped him out of the top 30 again anyway.)
Tennessee RBs (see Green Bay RBs)
Corey Dillon (sorry you have to be on a team to make my rankings)
Kevin Jones (I'm working under the assumption that he's not playing for at least half of the year)