Wednesday, March 21, 2007

NFL Mock Draft 3/22/2007

1. Oakland Raiders: JaMarcus Russell, QB LSU
There is plenty of talk about the Raiders getting interested in Calvin Johnson. But this team has to have a QB to build on. Andrew Walter isn’t the guy. I think they stick with Russell unless they can find someone to deal them a QB. My suggestion is to contact Oakland about acquiring Byron Leftwich. The Jaguars don’t know what they want to do at QB and if they move Leftwich for a draft pick then they can move forward with David Garrard as their QB. The Raiders would get a strong armed experienced QB that is still has plenty of youth, and then they could go after Calvin Johnson with that #1 pick.

2. Detroit Lions: Joe Thomas, OT Wisconsin
I firmly believe that the Lions will (and should) move out of this pick. There should be more than a few teams interested in moving up to get Joe Thomas, Calvin Johnson or Brady Quinn. The most likely scenario I see is Detroit moving down to #5 with Arizona. The one person Arizona needs in this draft is Joe Thomas and there is no way they are getting him at #5. Detroit can acquire extra picks by moving down to #5 and still grab either Quinn or Gaines Adams (and end up paying either less money then they would have to pay them if they were drafted #2)

3. Cleveland Browns: Adrian Peterson, RB Oklahoma
Jamal Lewis is on board, but just for one year. Sounds like the Browns are ready to use Peterson like New England and Indianapolis used Maroney and Addai in 2006. New England and Indianapolis are two pretty good organizations to emulate. If Thomas is still available then he could easily be the pick here. And the Browns could be tempted to take Brady Quinn but they are partially invested in Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Calvin Johnson, WR Georgia Tech
I think Tampa Bay would be thrilled if they could sit tight at #4 and still get Johnson. Everyone will be sweating in the war room waiting for this to happen, but right now I don’t see any team that is going to make a move into the top 3 to get Johnson. Based on the way the NFL value chart works, it is very difficult to move up into the top 3 from outside of the top 10. So, Minnesota is the only team I really see with much potential to make the move for Johnson.

5. Arizona Cardinals: Gaines Adams, DE Clemson
I think it would be a mistake for Arizona not to move up and grab Thomas, but if they don’t the most sensible pick is Gaines Adams. If you are going to have trouble protecting your QB and can’t get help on the O-line, then why not get a player that is going to make it difficult for other teams to protect their QB. Alan Branch is another possibility, but they spend and early pick on DT Gabe Watson out of Michigan last year, so I don’t see them doing something similar this year.

6. Washington Redskins: Jamaal Anderson, DE Arkansas
The Washington war room should be the busiest on April 28th. The Redskins should really just send out a league wide memo that says “We really, really want to trade the #6 pick, someone please give us something for it.” It’s well documented that Washington is without their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round pick. So, it is logical for them to move down in round 1 in exchange for picks in the 2nd and/or 3rd round. If they stay put then I think they have to grab the best pass rusher available. They generated a league low, 16 sacks in 2006. LaRon Landry might intrigue Washington as well, now that Adam Archuletta has been sent packing and the Washington secondary had trouble creating turnovers in 2006.

7. Minnesota Vikings: Brady Quinn, QB Notre Dame
Minnesota is tough to nail down. They run the ball well and stop the run well but have trouble generating a pass rush. They could be interested in one of the top 2 defensive ends but after spending first round picks the last 2 years on DEs (Kenechi Udeze and Erasmus James) I think that they will be hesitant to do so again. They have a need for a WR, but Calvin Johnson is the only WR that warrants getting drafted in this spot. They are also unsettled at QB. Tavaris Jackson was their 2nd round pick last year. Can they commit to him and pass up a player like Quinn? Based on the way this draft has gone I don’t think so.

8. Atlanta Falcons: LaRon Landry, S LSU
The Matt Schaub deals moves Atlanta into the #8 spot and I’ve got to think they are targeting a specific player with this selection. It could be one of the top two DEs to replace the departed Patrick Kerney, but my money is that they want Landry from LSU. The Falcons biggest weakness last year might have been safety play. Chris Crocker seemingly got beat on every double move and Landry would immediately contribute to Atlanta with his speed and versatility.

9. Miami Dolphins: Levi Brown, OT Penn State
The Dolphins have a lot invested in Daunte Culpepper. If Culpepper is going to lead this team then they need some big men in front of him to pass protect. Culpepper was sacked 21 times in just 4 games in 2006. Although, Keith Traylor will be 38 this season, so DTs Alan Branch or Amobi Okoye could be appealing to Miami. Also, after losing Wes Welker to New England the Dolphins might be interested in grabbing a player like Ted Ginn that could fill Welker’s role as a WR / return man.

10. Houston Texans: Leon Hall, CB Michigan
Now that Houston has made the deal for Matt Schaub we can stop the Brady Quinn talk. Houston could use this pick to grab Levi Brown and upgrade their offensive line, but Houston had the 3rd fewest interceptions in 2006. Hall is the cornerback that is most ready to contribute and he could battle for a starting gig opposite of Dunta Robinson. The best player available is Alan Branch, so Houston could go that route as well.

11. San Francisco 49ers: Alan Branch, DT Michigan
Branch is a top 10 talent that slips because the teams ahead of San Francisco have bigger needs to fill. The 49ers struggled stopping the run at times last year and Branch could come in and start right away. San Francisco has spent the last month addressing needs at secondary and linebacker. One glaring hole they still have is at WR. Ted Ginn or Southern Californian standout Dwayne Jarrett could interest the 49ers, but Branch is the value pick at #11.

12. Buffalo Bills: Patrick Willis, LB Mississippi
Buffalo has lost 3 big pieces to their team in the free agency period: CB Nate Clements, LB London Fletcher, and RB Willis McGahee. I expect the Bills to fill one of those needs with their first pick. Buffalo spent several picks last year on getting younger in the secondary and while Marshawn Lynch is intriguing, I think the best value for the Bills to fill one of those needs is Willis, the top linebacker in the draft.

13. St. Louis Rams: Amobi Okoye, DT Louisville
The only team worse in the NFL at stopping the run in 2006 than the Indianapolis Colts was the St. Louis Rams. Okoye is a phenom at age 19 and should help to improve the Rams’ biggest weakness.

14. Carolina Panthers: Reggie Nelson, S Florida
Reggie Nelson is becoming a hot name around draft circles and some team might look to trade up to grab him (Jacksonville? New England?). Both of Carolina’s starting safeties are on the wrong side of 30 and getting some youth into their secondary couldn’t be a bad thing. Carolina could also grab TE Greg Olsen in this spot or a WR like Ted Ginn.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers: Adam Carriker, DE Nebraska
New Head Coach Mike Tomlin will likely use early picks to solidify his defense. The big question is whether he will continue to use the 3-4 defense that Bill Cowher ran or if he will switch to the 4-3 that Tomlin ran while the defensive coordinator in Minnesota. Regardless of which defense Tomlin decides to play Carriker could fit in as either a 4-3 DE or a 3-4 outside linebacker. Carriker could be the eventual replacement for the departed Joey Porter. Also, note that Pittsburgh’s secondary was atrocious last year and they could use their pick to grab a corner at this spot if they feel the young guys they have in that spot can’t get the job done.

16. Green Bay Packers: Marshawn Lynch, RB California
Green Bay has plenty of holes to fill, but none more glaring then their need at RB. Lynch is the clear cut #2 RB in this year’s draft and would be ready to contribute to the Packer’s offense right from the beginning.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars: Ted Ginn Jr., WR Ohio State
Jacksonville is a solid team with no glaring weaknesses. On defense they ranked high in all 3 major categories: points (4th), rushing (4th), and passing (10th). On offense they were solid accept for the passing game; points (9th), rushing (10th), and passing (24th). They have spent 2 first round picks on wide receivers: Reggie Williams and Matt Jones while both have flashed signs of progress there has not been enough consistency.

18. Cincinnati Bengals: Paul Posluszny, LB Penn State
The Bengals have spent recent first day draft picks on linebackers out of the University of Georgia. Odell Thurman has been great when on the field, which is less each year because of off-the-field incidences. (Thurman was suspended 4 games last year for violating the league’s substance abuse policy). David Pollack missed the entire 2006 season with a broken neck and may never see the playing field again. Also, the Bengals team is in need of character face lift. The linebacker off the field is reportedly a good presence in the locker room and an excellent talent between the lines.

19. Tennessee Titans: Robert Meacham, WR Tennessee
Tennessee has filled on hole on their team by adding CB Nick Harper in free agency, but depending on what happens with Adam Jones, they could be looking for more help at that position. Tennessee has lost top WR Drew Bennett to the Rams and adding local product Robert Meacham for Vince Young would be wise. The Titans could also be looking for a RB to pair with LenDale White, so don’t be surprised to see them pull the trigger on Marshawn Lynch if Green Bay passes.

20. New York Giants: Darrelle Revis, CB Pittsburgh
New York is seemingly out of the RB market with their recent trade for Reuben Droughns. Starting corner, Sam Madison, is in the twilight of his career and Revis would do well to not start as a rookie and spend a year behind Madison learning. Also, Revis brings the added dimension of the return, which New York would be in need of.

21. Denver Broncos: Jarvis Moss, DE Florida
The Broncos have had a busy off-season filling up holes as quickly as they were able to. One hole that remains is a pass rushing DE, after the Broncos failed to lure Patrick Kerney to Denver. Moss brings plenty of speed to the field and would fit in nicely with Denver’s 4-3 scheme.

22. Dallas Cowboys: Brandon Meriweather, S Miami
Look for Dallas to add either a wide receiver of a safety. The defensive secondary was Dallas’ biggest weaknesses in 2006. Safety Roy Williams was a pro bowler, but was beaten in coverage far too many times. The Dallas defense ranked 24th among all teams against the pass. If they choose to overlook the secondary (or are able to sign Ken Hamlin from Seattle), then look for a player like Dwayne Bowe or Dwayne Jarrett to go here. At the start of the 2007 season both starting wide receivers for Dallas (Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn) will be 33 years old.

23. Kansas City Chiefs: Dwayne Bowe, WR LSU
It is no secret what position has been the weakest for the Chiefs this decade. In a draft where there will be plenty of quality wide receivers available late in the first round, I don’t expect the Chiefs to do anything other than pick the highest one left on their board. The selection of Bowe will be the third LSU Tiger selected in the first round

24. New England Patriots: Chris Houston, CB Arkansas
New England has had a very busy off-season. They have improved at WR (Stallworth and Welker) and LB (A. Thomas). And they are rumored to be interested in adding inside linebacker Ed Hartwell. The biggest weakness for the Patriots is in the secondary. Asante Samuel has been franchised and could be gone as soon as next year. Grabbing Houston would give the Pats some much needed depth as well as a future successor for Samuel.

25. New York Jets: Greg Olsen, TE Miami
Olsen saw his draft stock skyrocket after running a blistering 40 time at the combine. Most have him pegged to go around the middle of the first round, but I don’t think his talent level is that high. If he were that good then I think he would have made a bigger impact on the college game. Nevertheless, the Jets are in the market for a TE and this is a good fit for them.

26. Philadelphia: Michael Griffin, S Texas
Donte Stallworth has bolted Philly for New England. However, the Eagles quickly replaced him by bringing Kevin Curtis into the fold. Numerous teams will have safety high on their need this at this point in the draft (Dallas, Philadelphia, New England, San Diego, and New Orleans). Philadelphia can grab the last safety before there is a significant drop-off in level of talent.

27. New Orleans Saints: Aaron Ross, CB Texas
Ross comes off the board right after his fellow secondary mate from Texas. New Orleans was only able to generate 11 interceptions last year and Fred Thomas has clearly lost a step. Thomas is 33 and fellow starter Mike McKenzie is 31. The Saints do not have much talent behind these 2 starters and need to begin developing some.

28. New England Patriots: Anthony Spencer, DE/OLB Purdue
Spencer fits the New England 3-4 system. New England already has another Boilermaker playing the 3-4 outside linebacker position—Roosevelt Colvin has been a productive member of that defense. I fully expect New England to spend at least one pick improving their secondary if not two. If Spencer does not fit the bill then possibly look for New England to grab some added youth at offensive line.

29. Baltimore Ravens: Joe Staley OT, Central Michigan
Starting Right Tackle Tony Pashos has bolted for Jacksonville. Staley could move into the lineup and replace him and eventually be ready to move to the left side to replace Jonathan Ogden (entering his 12th season).

30. San Diego Chargers: Dwayne Jarrett, WR USC
There is no team in the league with fewer holes than San Diego. Wide receiver is a need that sticks out. Vincent Jackson flashed some brilliance at the end of the season, but even if he becomes a quality receiver then they are still looking for someone to play opposite of him. Jarrett is another tall target like Jackson and could create problems for teams with small corners. Jarrett, originally though to be the second WR taken, has seen his stock drop. He’ll need a good 40 time at his pro day to bring himself back up towards the top of the first round.

31. Chicago Bears: Justin Blalock, G Texas
Blalock could be the 4th Texas Longhorn to be drafted in the first round in April. Drafting guards isn’t glorious but games are won at the line of scrimmage.

32. Indianapolis Colts: Lawrence Timmons, LB Florida State
The defending champs continue to lose players in free agency: RB Dominic Rhodes (Oakland), LB Cato June (Tampa Bay), CB Nick Harper (Tennessee) WR Brandon Stokely (Denver) DT Monte Reagor (Philadelphia). Joseph Addai is ready to step up and carry the load at RB and Indy has been investing first day picks into defensive backs the last several years (Marlin Jackson, Kelvin Hayden, and Tim Jennings), so I think he pick here is to replace June. Timmons ran the 40 at 4.52 at the combine and Dungy loves quick linebackers that can fly to the ball. However, the Colts have been hesitant to spend early picks on linebackers in the past. They may choose to grab a big defensive tackle to help upgrade their run defense. Tank Tyler (NC State) and Justin Harrell (Tennessee) come to mind.

6 comments:

Chremdacasi said...

As a Lions fan, my only complaint is that you think the Lions should trade down. My theory about picking so high in the draft is that if there are premier QBs available, you have to take them, because its not often you end up at the top of the draft. Jon Kitna will never win you a Super Bowl, whereas at least with Brady Quinn there is a chance. I personally think that Russell is a bit more shaky, and might be okay if the Lions were to pass on him, but if the Raiders don't take Quinn (which I think must at least be a possibility even if no one is talking about it), I would be very disappointed if the Lions passed on Brady Quinn (especially after passing on Leinart last year.) Other than that great work on the draft. I like you sticking with Peterson to the Browns. He may fall past them, but it won't be because they signed Lewis to a 1 year deal. It would just because RBs tend to fall in general in the draft. If J. Thomas is there I could see them going that direction, and if they fall in love with one of the D Lineman I think that is a possibility as well. If Calvin Johnson makes it all the way to Tampa Bay that would be a coupe for them. My opinion on how the draft should go, if needs aren't taken into consideration. B. Quinn (surest bet at QB), C. Johnson (surest bet overall), J. Russell (because when you have a chance to take a 1st round QB you do it.

Hanson said...

The problem with the Lions taking Quinn is that they have already tried the route of drafting a QB high in round 1, paying him loads of money, then waiting years for him to develop. Joey Harrington has set the Lions franchise back half a decade. Can they risk wasting the rest of a decade on another QB? Also, Matt Millen needs to see results right now. Getting Quinn won't help Detroit win right now. But trading down to acquire depth, and getting a player in round 1 that could start and contribute right now would help the Lions right away.

Chremdacasi said...

I hear what you are saying, and if their goal is merely to be better than last year, then I agree with your reasoning. If they have a long-term goal of winning the Super Bowl, then I think you take Quinn now and continue to take your lumps. And while in any sane situation Millen would have to worry about his job by now, I think he was recently given a contract extension (I really despise that man). So, my hope would be to go ahead and take another shot at a QB, and if he sets you back another half decade so be it, that's what your fans expect going forward anyway.

Anonymous said...

Ummmmmmm, last time I checked Levi Brown played for Penn State not Texas.... I kind of quit reading after that.

Chremdacasi said...

Anonymous, you crack me up. You use a cliche insult, "I kind of quit reading after that." And yet 12 minutes later, you post on the previous version of the mock draft indicating that not only did you finish reading the current one, but were intrigued enough to read the first version. If you're going to be insulting, at least be original, because a cliche that's not even true, sounds kind of silly. At least you inspired me to turn off anonymous posting so that no one else can just take potshots from the dark.

Hanson said...

I understand not reading after catching a major mistake like messing up a player's school. I would do a similar thing when reading a mock draft; however, I don't feel too bad about it since this isn't my full time job and I'm not getting paid for blogging about the draft. Now, when some guy from a draft website that is employed to write articles about the draft makes a mistake, then he should feel pretty stupid. But putting together a complete first round mock draft with comments is no small task when you have a full-time job. So, I don't feel too bad about having just one mistake.