Tuesday, April 03, 2007

Playoffs/Championships

On my way into work this morning, Mike & Mike from ESPN brought up a subject that is one that I have been doing a lot thinking on, so I thought I would get my ideas out there. The discussion has to do with whether or not champion equates to "best team". They were saying that this year Florida, clearly the best team, was the champ, and that especially in the NCAA tourney this is not always the case.

It is actually somewhat of a common occurence for the "best team" to not win their sports championship in a given year. Some will argue that winning a championship is what defines a team as "the best", and performance in the playoff system is a necessary component to being the best. I do agree that a certain ability to perform under pressure is a good quality to have for a team to be called "the best", but what we fail to realize is that none of the sports leagues currently have a playoff system that is setup to determine the "best team" of the year. They are actually set up to maximize revenue to the leagues, irregardless of any supposed quest to answer the question of who the best team was in any given year.

Let me list some of the problems in current systems, and propose what would have to happen to have a playoff system, more worthy of being considered to answer the question, what team was "the best."

1. One and done single elimination. This affects football first and foremost both in the NFL and even more so on the college level (where the whole season is a playoff, and after 1 loss, you are generally disqualified from being declared champ). It also comes into play in March Madness. The problem with one game deciding who moves on to the next round is the huge factor that luck plays in all sporting events. Luck could be anything from how the refs are performing that night, injuries, the way the ball bounces, weather (in the case of football) and many many other factors. On any given day in the NFL a horrible team can beat a really good team, and as Pittsburgh showed, a #6 seed could run the table beating all the better teams 4 games in a row to be the Super Bowl champ. Anyone outside of Pittsburgh, could look at that season and easily pick 2 or 3 other teams that would have been better picks for team of the year.

2. Similar to the single elimination problem is the problem of a short 5 game series. Basketball finally got rid of this, thankfully, but baseball still plays a short series in the divisional round, which not uncommonly leads to the #1 seed being upset.

3. Finally, too many teams in the postseason. There is only one league who has this right, and that is baseball. What is the point of playing the regular season if every average team (barely over .500 and in some cases under .500) gets into the playoffs. Some might say for home court advantage, but the only sport where this seems to be a huge factor is football. Average teams can get hot for stretches, and the system rewards medicore teams who get hot late. So....my solution....

First, in a 30-32 team league, 8 teams get into the playoffs. When you allow half the league in you completely devalue the regular season, and frankly take away some excitement that might be there with a smaller playoff system, when good (but not great) teams might miss out on the playoffs under a situation where 8 teams instead of 16 got in. All of the games down the stretch would be must see. Right now, no one really cares if the Pacers or the Knicks can eke past Orlando or New Jersey to make the playoffs, because everyone knows they are losing to Cleveland and Detroit in the first round anyway. If this is a foregone conclusion, why make everyone go through the exercise. Even worse, what if miraculously the Knicks caught fire and actually won their first round series. Are we really ready then to consider them a top 8 team in the league?

Second, all series must be at least best of 7. A 7 games series leaves enough time for the teams to gear up and play their best ball against each other. I would even advocate going up to 9 games (this could make up for some of the lost revenue by dropping a round of the playoffs).

Finally, to really have the regular season mean something, I would advocate that home court advantage means that the higher seed is home for the entire series, not just one more game than the lower seed. Now, you have an appropriately weighted system, giving advantages to teams that performed all year long, and they will be given enough chances to prove they are the best in a long series. If with all of that in place, the lower seed wins, that is where the performing under pressure component would come into player for the lower seed, and at the end of the playoffs, we all would feel a lot more comfortable with the so-called "champion". So am I way off here? Other issues with current systems? Other suggestions on fixing thing?

3 comments:

Hanson said...

Having an entire 7 or 9 game series played at one location is ridiculous. Why would you deprive the lower seed and their fans the chance to see their team. I understand trying to give more weight to the regular season, but you are out of your mind on this idea.
Also, how could you play a best of 7 series in football? What is the alternative there?
I do agree that the NBA let's too many teams in the playoffs. And maybe the NFL too. But I think you have to let division winners get in and there has to be at least one wild card team (too many times there are 2 or more really good teams in the same division).
Now the NFL has 4 division in each conference, so I think in order for them to go to less than 12 total teams then I think their would have to be realignment.

Chremdacasi said...

I hear your point about the "fan" missing out. It is a valid one, not sure what the solution is, but I just don't think that a mere one extra game for the higher seed at home provides a big enough advantage for being the better team over 80 some or 160 odd games.

Yeah, it is unfortunate that there really is no good way to do the playoffs in football to eliminate "luck". Appropriate, since it is the game probably most based on "luck" (unless you still consider hockey a sport worth talking about). However, even though I know its not possible time wise, but can you imagine how awesome it would be to have even a 5 game series in football with the same teams beating up on each other for 3-5 straight games. I know its not feasible, but I think it would be an awesome experience. The only realistic thing the NFL can do to improve is allow homefield to apply to the Super Bowl as it does the rest of the playoffs, and pare down to 4 teams from each conference.

I definitely agree that division winners need to get in, and I also agree for the need for wild cards. I think the best scenario is 2 conferences with 2 divisions each and 2 wild cards, although 3 divisions with 1 wild card is not too bad.

Hanson said...

I see what you are saying about having just one more home game in a 7 game series not being a great advantage for being better over a season of 80-160 games. And that certainly applies if the difference between the two teams is 20 games. But what if the difference is just one game? Team A was 100-62, while team B was 99-61. It seems silly to reward a team by giving them all 7 games at home just because they won 1 more game.

About the divisions -- Football can't really do 3 divisions in each conference since there is no fair way to split 16 teams into 3 divisions. 2 is a possibility but that makes for a big division (8).