Monday, March 12, 2007

QB Rankings

Going with only the top 10 here, since the hairs are just too fine to split after that. I may offer comments on those guys later in the offseason.

A bit of a shakeup in how I rank QBs as opposed to RBs. The reason is simple. At RB, I focus more on the safe thing, because most people are using at least 2 of their first 3 picks on RBs. If you don't get very good fantasy starters with these picks, it can be hard to recover in later rounds. With QBs, outside of P. Manning, you are probably using a mid to late round pick. At that point, picking up a potential elite player (V. Young is my bet this year), is a huge bonus, but not a necessity. Plus, with starting QBs, as long as they don't start in Oakland, the floor is a lot higher. So what if D. Brees doesn't end up being top 5. Even if he ends up being the #15 QB overall, he's probably not scoring that many fewer points than the QB at #6. QBs are a dime a dozen and often there are plenty of adequate ones available in free agency. So, feel free to take risks at this position, is my thinking.

Oh and as with the RBs. If you would like to view the rankings without the comments. Click here. I have also added a link to the sidebar that will go the player rankings page, so it will be easier to find.

1. Peyton Manning (I doubt I'll get much argument here.)
2. M. Vick (For those who have called him overrated for years, and weren't paying attention, he was the #3 fantasy QB last year. With Petrino supposedly throwing in some 4 WR sets, I think that will open up the field even more for Vick to run the ball. He broke 1000 yards rushing last year, I could see him going over 1200 this year. Plus, despite all of the yards he didn't rush it into the end zone as much as you might think (2 Rushing TDs). I see the rushing TDs going up to the 6-8 TD range this year.)
3. V. Young (A better version, although still more raw, of M. Vick. He passes the ball better and might have a better nose for running the ball into the endzone. Some might think this is too much projection of an improvement from his rookie year. However, think about this, if you subtract out his stats for the first 3 games, where he was splitting time, and then take the average over the last 13 games out to 16 games, Young would have finished as the #4 fantasy QB last year ahead of C. Palmer.)
4. C. Palmer (This isn't really telling about any dislike for Palmer. I have him as the 2nd rated pure passer. I am a HUGE fan of the running QB though in fantasy football. So, that's why Palmer falls all the way to #4).
5. D. Brees (I'm really tempted to put Brees lower, as last year feels like a fluke to me. Although with not many compelling options behind him, I'll leave Brees at 5).
6. T. Brady (Man is this guy boring....but other than Manning and Palmer, he's probably the only guy you can bet your life upon ending the season in the top 10.)
7. E. Manning (I'm a big fan of little brother. I think he's taken a bad rap in New York, but I see improvement in his game, and I think he will work his way up the QB ranks slowly but surely over the next few years.)
8. M. Bulger (I think that Bulger's numbers will slip as the Martz era fades in the rearview mirror. With S. Jackson around, there is good reason for this team to try to shift this offense to becoming more and more run-oriented).
9. M. Hasselbeck (Health is a major concern here. If he can stay healthy for 16 games though, he will probably finish in the top 6 QBs).
10. D. McNabb (Health is an even bigger concern here. McNabb will be a top 5 QB almost every week he is healthy, but how many weeks of the year can you count on that? And even more importantly, will he still be playing when the fantasy playoffs come around, if you were able to ride him that far?)

2 comments:

Hanson said...

If QBs are a dime a dozen and this a position where you can take a riskier pick then why not grab McNabb? You said it yourself that he is a top 5 QB when he is healthy. Why draft someone like Brady before someone like McNabb (who has a much higher ceiling)? When discussing Brees you claim that if Brees finishes 6th or 15th there won't be much difference between the 2. Well, if Brady is 6th, then why not take a shot on McNabb who could be top 2 or 3 and if he gets hurt then pick up that #15 QB late in your draft. This way you get the upside of McNabb and if he does get hurt, then you aren't dropping that far from that #6 QB.
You say that this is a position to take risks, but then drop McNabb to the bottom of the top 10 because of his risks and despite his big upside (he was the #1 QB last year before the injury).

Chremdacasi said...

The difference is in what I am willing to gamble on. Gambling on potential as opposed to gambling on injuries. McNabb seems to have reached the injured every year point of his career. So, since I feel 90% certain that he will not be available for the fantasy playoffs due to injuries, I would prefer to have guys that I know will be healthy, and might have a 50/50 shot of being better than Brady (i.e. V. Young). As I would give Young at least a 50/50 shot of being better based on his potential. Don't get me wrong, if your whole goal is just to make the playoffs McNabb should do just fine for that, but in trying to win in the playoffs, I would take Brady first. Just to clarify, I did say that dropping from 6th to 15th isn't too bad, however, if McNabb is injured that is dropping from #2 to last place. There's a decent chance that you can grab a good enough QB in FA, but its not a sure thing. So, either you have to draft a backup QB sooner than you would with the other guys, which costs you value, or another possibility is if his injury doesn't put him out for the season, then you hang onto the guy wasting a roster spot, hoping he comes back. At least if Brees "flops" and becomes a #15 QB, he is still a playable QB and worthy of a roster spot, not deadweight that needs to be replaced.